Cleveland Guardians Arbitration Projections and Tender Decisions

Once a team comes up with its projected salary for all of its arbitration-eligible players, it will begin a tender analysis to simply determine: “Are we comfortable guaranteeing Player X this much money?”

If the answer is yes, the player will be tendered a contract prior to the mid-November Tender Deadline. Tendering a contract means the team offers the player a contract for the following season while retaining his rights, with the player’s salary either agreed to later or determined through the arbitration process.

If the answer is no, the player will be DFA’d/non-tendered. Once a player is non-tendered, he is removed from the 40-man roster and becomes a free agent immediately.

The other option a team has is to pre-tender a player, which is a contract agreed to before the Tender Deadline that takes the player out of the arbitration process. This is typically done when a team wants to keep a player, but only at a slightly discounted rate, or when it is a very obvious, typically small raise case that teams like to get out of the way.

This article dives into the market analysis of each case, showing the reasoning behind my leaguewide salary projections, before predicting the tender decision for each player.

All opinions in this article are my own, there was no non-public information used in my analysis.

Cleveland Guardians Roster Outlook

40-MAN + 60-DAY IL (NON-FA): 40

PENDING FA + MUTUAL OPTIONS: 5

OPTIONS: None

R5 PROJECTED ADDITIONS: 4; Justin Campbell, Jake Fox, Jaison Chourio, Franklin Gomez

JO ADELL (5.085): $8,225,000 ($3.025M raise)

The Case: Adell enters from a $5.2M Arb-2 salary after a career-high 660 PA with 23 HR, 94 RBI and a 96 wRC+, with Cleveland acquiring him at the trade deadline.

Taylor Ward (2024, $3.025M raise) is the primary comparison after entering from a similar $4.8M salary with comparable bulk and power posting 661 PA with 25 HR. Adell has the run-production advantage, while Ward owns the better wRC+.

Amed Rosario (2022, $2.85M raise) provides the floor after entering from a $4.95M salary with similar PA bulk, but Adell’s significant power advantage will push him above Rosario.

Isaac Paredes (2026, $4.3M proj. raise) is a current-class counterargument with nearly identical 659 PA, 25 HR and 94 RBI, but his 130 wRC+ and much higher $9.35M previous salary make him largely irrelevant as a direct case comparison even if Adell’s representatives try to use the statistical similarity.

Ward remains the cleanest placement point, and I project Adell to match his $3.025M raise, bringing him to $8.225M.

Tender Prediction: Adell will be tendered a contract. He was a solid deadline acquisition for Cleveland and should remain part of the 2027 roster. Tender.

STEVEN KWAN (5.000): $11,000,000 ($3.275M raise)

The Case: Kwan enters from a $7.725M salary after totaling 637 PA with 3 HR, 32 RBI, 10 SB and a 114 wRC+, including a 155 wRC+ in the second half.

Because this is an Arb-3 case and the markets tend to be smaller as players weed out of the system or sign extensions, Arb-3 players can be compared to Arb-4 players, which in this case gives us maybe the funniest group of comps ever in Luis Arraez (2023, $4.5M raise) and Luis Arraez (2024, $3.4M raise).

Arraez’s 2023 case came after a 10-HR season with a .354 average, a Silver Slugger, an All-Star selection and an eighth-place MVP finish, while the 2024 case came after 672 PA, 4 HR, 9 SB and a 110 wRC+ with another All-Star selection. Those two Arraez cases define the available market for Kwan, and his raise should fall just below the 2024 version. I project a $3.275M raise, bringing him to $11M.

Tender Prediction: Kwan will be tendered a contract. He is a potential trade candidate and will be an interesting story to monitor over the course of the season. Tender.

COLIN HOLDERMAN (4.108): $2,100,000 ($600k raise)

The Case: Holderman received $1.5M as a Super Two for the 2025 season, was non-tendered by Pittsburgh at the end of it but signed with Cleveland at that same $1.5M clip as a free agent. He is still considered Arb-2 with 4+ years of service because this is his second time through the arbitration system. Holderman had a very strong season as a middle reliever but ended the year on the IL and has now opted for offseason surgery. Holderman posted a 2.73 ERA across 52.2 IP and racking up 12 SV+HLD.

Jonathan Loáisiga (2022, $612.5k raise) and Tim Hill (2022, $525k raise) are the best comparisons in terms of similar bulk by IP, role by gmLI, quality by FIP and SV+HLD totals. Loáisga also posted 12 SV+HLD. Holderman falls between the two with Loáisiga ending the season healthy.

I project a $600k raise resulting in a $2.1M total salary. The surgery creates a real negotiation lever for Cleveland and limits Holderman’s ability to push aggressively despite the strong platform performance.

Tender Prediction: With Holderman opting for surgery, this becomes an interesting decision. I expect him to be a Guardian in 2027, but Cleveland should use the surgery as leverage to pursue a pre-tender deal at a salary similar to what the club paid him last season. Pre-Tender.

DAVID FRY (3.153): $1,800,000 ($425k raise)

The Case: Fry totaled 214 PA with 8 HR and a 93 wRC+ while playing a multitude of corner positions in a weak-side platoon role, placing him in the lower-raise position-player market.

Chas McCormick (2024, $550k raise) provides the upper comparison after totaling 267 PA with 5 HR and a 66 wRC+. Fry’s platform production is stronger, but McCormick entered from an Arb-1 salary nearly $1.5M higher, which limits how much of that raise Fry can realistically capture.

Leury García (2018, $375k raise) is the older comparison from a much more comparable previous salary and posted 275 PA with 4 HR and 86 wRC+. Fry’s power advantage should get him above Garcia’s raise, and I project a $425k raise, bringing his total salary to $1.8M.

Tender Prediction: I do not see an obvious fit for Fry on this roster. There is potentially a platoon role available with Ingle if he comes up, but Fry’s lack of defensive versatility paired with below-league-average offense over the past two seasons makes the fit difficult. My gut says Cleveland holds onto Fry and tries to get a pre-tender deal done, but I would not be shocked if he were off the 40-man roster by the Tender Deadline. Pre-Tender.

MATT FESTA (3.153): $1,637,500 ($637.5k raise)

The Case: Festa fits into a group of relievers all coming from within $100k of his Arb-1 salary who posted between 6-11 SV+HLD, 66-72 games and quality ERAs.

Cam Bedrosian (2018, $650k raise), Adam Cimber (2021, $650k raise), Cory Gearrin (2017, $625k raise), and Anthony Banda (2025, $625k raise) provide the range.

Cleveland can point to Banda, the most recent comparison who came from the same exact Arb-1 salary, pitched in more games, recorded more holds and posted a lower ERA. Festa’s representatives can point to Bedrosian and Cimber as the two comparisons in the group who recorded a save like Festa and both received $650K raises.

Both arguments are strong, so Festa splits the group down the middle with a $637.5K raise, resulting in a $1.6375M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Festa will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

PATRICK BAILEY (3.136): $3,250,000

The Case: Bailey has the largest bulk playing time in Games and Plate Appearance in this Arb-1 Catcher market. Bailey has struggled offensively in his career but is one of the best defensive catchers in all of baseball in recent memory. Bailey comes into this market with 1598 PA’s, every player with that number of PA’s has made at least $4.5M but Bailey’s 31 career HR’s and 78 wRC+ don’t match up at all to that group.

Jonah Heim (2023, $3.05M salary) is a floor for Bailey to negotiate up from with over 300 more career PA’s. Despite Heim with more power, a better career wRC+ and better overall PY, you can’t ignore Bailey’s elite defense and bulk career PA advantage.

There is a massive gap in the Arb-1 C market between Heim and $4.5M. I have Bailey above Heim, but way closer to Heim than the $4.5M group. I project Bailey to earn a $3.25M Arb-1 salary.

Tender Prediction: Bailey will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

GAVIN WILLIAMS (3.103): $4,900,000

The Case: Williams enters arbitration coming off a dominant platform season in which he led the American League in strikeouts while throwing 184.1 IP with a 3.76 ERA. That brought his career totals to 510 IP with a 3.43 ERA and 33 quality starts, giving him one of the stronger statistical profiles for an Arb-1 starting pitcher in recent years.

Hunter Brown (2025, $5.71M salary) represents the top of the recent Arb-1 market after entering arbitration off an All-Star selection and a third-place Cy Young finish in his platform year, with 531.1 career IP, a 3.49 ERA and 53 quality starts. Dylan Cease (2022, $5.7M salary) entered after finishing second in Cy Young voting in his platform year, while Zac Gallen (2022, $5.7M salary) entered after a fifth-place Cy Young finish that marked his second straight top-10 finish.

While I expect Williams to receive Cy Young votes, he likely ends up a step below this $5.7M group. Logan Webb (2022, $4.6M salary) provides the lower anchor after finishing 11th in Cy Young voting in his platform year and entering arbitration with 525 career IP and a 3.82 ERA when extrapolating for the shortened 2020 season.

There is a large gap between Webb and the award-heavy $5.7M tier, and Williams’ salary should depend heavily on where he ultimately lands in Cy Young voting. My best estimate is a finish somewhere in the 6th-8th range, which should put him above Webb but still closer to Webb than the $5.7M group. I project Williams at a $4.9M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Williams will be tendered a contract. I would not be shocked if Cleveland approaches him about an extension, especially with some of the higher-regarded arms in the system developing a little slower than expected. Locking Williams in could make sense, particularly if Cleveland will need to increase payroll to comply with potential new CBA regulations. Tender.

BLAKE PERKINS (3.073): $1,100,000

The Case: Perkins only received 101 PA’s in his PY hitting 1 HR with 11 RBI and a 45 wRC+ and enters arbitration with 874 career PA’s, 14 HR’s, 93 RBI, 38 SB and an 81 wRC+.

Oswaldo Cabrera (2025, $1.2M salary) entered with 122 PY PA’s with the same 1 HR and 11 RBI while his career numbers are also really similar with 949 PA’s, 20 HR’s, 95 RBI and the same 81 wRC+. Perkins has the speed advantage but Cabrera has more career bulk and power and had the better PY, Perkins should fall below Cabrera and I project him at $1.1M.

Tender Prediction: Perkins did not appear for Cleveland after the trade, and it is difficult to see where he fits, especially after burning his final option year. He clearly was a target for Cleveland in some capacity and performed well in Triple-A, so I expect a pre-tender split deal. I still would not be shocked if he ultimately were not tendered a contract. Pre-Tender.

HUNTER GADDIS (3.073): $3,000,000

The Case: Gaddis finished the platform season with 33 SV+HLD across 60.1 IP with a 2.98 ERA and now enters arbitration with 100 career holds and a 3.30 career ERA, giving him one of the strongest pure setup-reliever resumes in the class.

Devin Williams (2022, $3.35M salary) and Griffin Jax (2024, $2.365M salary) are the top of the elite setup market. Williams entered the market with 60 career HLD and 18 career SV to a 2.03 ERA. Jax entered the market with 65 career HLD and 15 career SV to a 3.99 ERA. Williams significant quality advantage combined with more holds will keep him at top of this market.

Gaddis’ combination of career holds, platform leverage and quality puts him much closer to Williams than Jax and comfortably above the lower setup group. At the same time, the current class gives him a ceiling in Louis Varland (2026, $3.2M proj. salary) and Jacob Latz (2026, $3.05M proj. salary), who carry closer-value save totals. Gaddis belongs just below that closer tier, but towards the top of the historical setup market. I project a $3M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Gaddis will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

TIM HERRIN (3.058): $1,275,000

The Case: Herrin enters arbitration with 192.2 career IP across 219 appearances with a 3.41 ERA and 48 career holds, then added 16 HLD across 56.2 IP with a 3.02 ERA in his platform season.

Tim Mayza (2021, $1.25M salary) provides a very clean comparison after throwing 53 IP with 18 HLD, 1 SV and a 3.40 ERA. Herrin has similar platform leverage production with the quality and career-bulk advantages, but the lack of even a single career save matters when trying to separate from Mayza.

Justin Topa (2023, $1.25M salary) had 23 HLD and 3 SV in a stronger platform season, while Cionel Perez (2023, $1.2M salary) had less platform-year bulk and fewer holds but did have 3 saves.

Herrin’s career bulk and overall quality should get him above Perez and slightly above the $1.25M cases, but with 0 career saves there is not enough traditional arbitration value to push him much farther. I project a $1.275M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Herrin will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

BRAYAN ROCCHIO (3.001): $2,750,000

The Case: Rocchio enters arbitration coming off his career-best season, which was also his lone qualifying season. He is an infielder with limited power and enters with 1,503 career PA, 28 career HR and an 85 career wRC+.

Brendan Donovan (2024, $2.85M salary) is the best historical ceiling as another low-power infielder with almost identical career bulk at 1,491 PA and 30 HR who also had his career-best season in his platform year. Donovan’s 120 career wRC+ is a massive quality advantage and makes his salary an impassable ceiling for Rocchio.

Brendan Rodgers (2022, $2.7M salary) provides the floor as a player in the same low-power bucket whose lone qualifying season came in his platform year, but Rodgers entered with only 1,132 career PA after extrapolating 2020 and an 83 career wRC+, giving Rocchio a significant career-bulk advantage with similar overall quality.

Nick Gonzales (2026, $2.825M proj. salary) is the best current-class comparison with nearly identical career bulk and the same one-qualifying-season profile, but Gonzales’ 94 career wRC+ gives him the clear quality advantage. Rocchio should fit above Rodgers but stay behind Gonzales and Donovan, and I project a $2.75M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Rocchio will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

CADE SMITH (3.000): $4,700,000

The Case: Smith enters his first trip through arbitration after becoming Cleveland’s full-time closer and putting together one of the strongest platform seasons in the recent Arb-1 relief market. He made 67 appearances, threw 72.1 IP and finished with 40 SV, a 1.99 ERA and 104 strikeouts, while putting himself in frontrunner position for Reliever of the Year recognition. He enters the market with 58 carer SV.

Jordan Romano (2022, $4.5375M salary) sits at the top of that Arb-1 closer market after a platform season of 64 IP, 36 SV and a 2.11 ERA with 61 career SV. Camilo Doval (2024, $4.525M salary) earned essentially the same salary after a PY of 59 IP, 23 SV, 5 HLD and a 4.88 ERA giving him 92 career SV. Doval made less than Romano despite a significant career SV advantage showing the importance of the PY.

Smith gets to 40 saves with elite run prevention and 104 strikeouts, giving him a statistical argument to establish a new top of this group. Most saves in a PY entering Arb-1 in the last 10+ seasons.

The award case creates another separator. Neither Romano or Doval entered arbitration with a Reliever of the Year award. Smith has a legitimate chance to do so, and even significant award voting strengthens an already superior platform-year case. Because Smith is already above the previous market on saves before considering that recognition, his salary should move beyond the roughly $4.5M ceiling rather than simply matching it. I project Smith at a $4.7M Arb-1 salary.

Tender Prediction: Smith will be tendered a contract. He is part of a very volatile first-time-closer market, and the result of the AL Reliever of the Year award could move his salary drastically. Tender.

SLADE CECCONI (2.155): $1,700,000

The Case: Cecconi enters arbitration after beginning the platform year in Cleveland’s rotation before transitioning into a bullpen role after spending the majority of his career as a starter. He appeared in 28 games in the platform year, making 21 starts and throwing 121 IP with a 4.91 ERA. His career totals include 78 games, 61 starts, 19 quality starts, 357 IP and a 5.02 ERA.

Domingo Germán (2021, $1.75M salary) and Austin Gomber (2022, $1.65M salary) provide the best historical range because both also began their platform seasons in the rotation before spending significant time in long-relief roles.

Germán threw 98.1 IP across 22 games and 18 starts with a 4.58 ERA in his platform year, entering arbitration with 341.1 career IP, a 4.54 ERA and 22 quality starts. Gomber threw 124.2 IP across 33 games and 17 starts with a 5.56 ERA, while his extrapolated career totals through the shortened 2020 season were 393 IP with a 4.31 ERA and 26 quality starts.

Within this small comparison group, Gomber appears to have fallen short of Germán because he started a lower percentage of his games and posted worse platform-year quality. Cecconi fits directly between the two in both areas while all three carry similar career bulk, which creates a very clean middle placement. I project Cecconi at a $1.7M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Cecconi will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.