Contact! Tuesday's Base Hit Builder

More fun with numbers as I take you through today's best bets for a base knock. We'll isolate today's MLB slate's pitch-to-contact SPs — and which hitters they'll face who've frequently put quality balls in play over the last ~25 PAs or so.

Today's SP Contact Targets With +90% Zone-Contact & +40% Hard Hit Rates

• COL Kyle Freeland — 83.2 IP; 92.6% Zone-Contact, 42.8% Hard Hit vs. BOS
• PIT Mitch Keller — 106.1 IP; 90.1% Zone-Contact, 43.0% Hard Hit vs. KC
• KC Seth Lugo — 95.0 IP; 89.8% Zone-Contact, 46.4% Hard Hit vs. PIT
• WSH Jake Irvin — 105.0 IP; 89.8% Zone-Contact, 47.9% Hard Hit vs. STL

Opposing Hitters w/+77% Contact, +40% Hard Hit, & +.260 Expected Batting Average vs LHP/RHP

• BOS Ceddanne Rafaela — 21 PA; +78% Contact, +50% Hard Hit & +.291 Expected Batting Average
• KC Vinnie Pasquantino — 25 PA; +80% Contact, +50% Hard Hit & +.280 Expected Batting Average
• PIT Ke'Bryan Hayes — 27 PA; +83% Contact, +50% Hard Hit & +.325 Expected Batting Average
• STL Brendan Donovan — 35 PA; +88% Contact, +54% Hard Hit & +.318 Expected Batting Average

(For transparency's sake, I tweak hitters' handedness splits to adjust for proper plate appearance sample sizes)

LAGHEZZA'S LEAN:

Intentionally setting all the parameters really high on both sides of our base hit matrix leaves us with just a handful of results per slate — but I gotta say I love every one of these guys for a hit today.

Our keep it simple methodology sets a nice low bar to clear in a really difficult hitter market. Players only get a small handful of at-bats every game, where a couple of walks and a HBP could otherwise ruin your day.

TODAY'S ACTION: FOUR-LEG BASE HIT (+233) PARLAY ON FANDUEL

• BOS Ceddanne Rafaela
• KC Vinnie Pasquantino
• PIT Ke'Bryan Hayes
• STL Brendan Donovan