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Could the Cardinals Compete in the NL Central?

Originally posted on Just Baseball | By Michael Fisher | Last updated Apr 3, 2025 5:27 PM ET

If you’re an early-season standings watcher, the National League Central just one week into the season could cause you to question your sanity. The St. Louis Cardinals have had a rip-roaring start to the young season, and they lead the division by half a game.

The question is, are the Cardinals really in a position to compete for the division title this year?

They went 3-0 on Opening Weekend. The quick start perhaps put thoughts of, dare we say it, the postseason into optimistic St. Louis fans’ minds. Although, it looks like only the most optimistic of fans are jumping on board this early in the season, with attendance dwindling at Busch Stadium.

Even if they’re not showing up in person, fans’ early hopes were also buoyed by glacial starts from the primary NL Central competition.

The Chicago Cubs stumbled out of the gate. They’ve since turned the ship around and now sit 5-4, riding Kyle Tucker’s coattails. The Milwaukee Brewers, the defending division champs, face-planted early before picking up a pair of wins to move to 2-4 after Wednesday’s action.

Yes, the Cardinals dropped two of three to the Los Angeles Angels to settle at a 4-2 record. However, they’ve shown that maybe, just maybe, they can make a go of it this season.

It’s not strictly the record, either. It’s how they’ve gone about things early. There’s a lightness about the club that wasn’t there last season. They certainly seem to be having fun, with a different hero stepping up every night.

ST. LOUIS, MO – MARCH 27: Nolan Arenado #28 of the St. Louis Cardinals looks on after winning the game between the Minnesota Twins and the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium on Thursday, March 27, 2025 in St. Louis, Missouri. The St. Louis Cardinals won 5-3. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

What Needs to Go Right for the Cardinals to Compete in the NL Central?

Let’s be realistic, though. If the Cardinals have any kind of shot of competing this season, veteran third baseman Nolan Arenado has to lead the way in the lineup. After an offseason of uncertainty, he looks like himself again.

After posting a career-low .394 slugging percentage and .719 OPS in 2024, early returns this year look promising. His bat speed is back, and he’s hitting a healthy .391, slugging .609 and has a 1.109 OPS, with a pair of doubles and a home run.

The Cardinals will also need the likes of Lars Nootbaar, Willson Contreras, Alec Burleson, and Brendan Donovan to do their part. Will this be the year that Nootbaar stays healthy and puts together a full breakout season? We’ve been waiting for a few years now. He’s off to a good start, hitting .417 with a 1.200 OPS out of the leadoff spot.

Then there are the youngsters. Iván Herrera, Jordan Walker and Victor Scott II are all off to hot starts. The Cardinals will need that to continue. Masyn Winn has had a rough start, but he more than held his own in his 2024 rookie season.

FanGraphs projects the Cardinals’ offense to finish in the bottom half of MLB in fWAR. So far, the bats haven’t had a problem scoring runs. They rank second overall heading into Thursday’s slate, with 7.00 runs/game.

The pitching staff isn’t exactly well-regarded, either, projected to rank in the bottom half of the league. The names in the starting rotation won’t strike fear into opposing lineups, but they have some serviceable arms behind Sonny Gray. FanGraphs projects Gray to lead the rotation with 3.0 fWAR.

Veterans Miles Mikolas and Erick Fedde should provide solid innings. Andre Pallante and Matthew Liberatore will contribute what they can. They also have Steven Matz biding his time in the bullpen, with top prospect Quinn Mathews waiting in Triple-A.

Ryan Helsley’s presence at the back of the bullpen is always intimidating. The question is how the rest of the relief corps will hold up. Projected as a middling bullpen, they might be just good enough if the offense overachieves.

The Cubs Won’t Go Away Quietly

Not only do the Cardinals need everything to go right to have a chance to contend in the division, but they also need the Cubs to underachieve — by a lot. The Cubs are clearly the Cardinals’ biggest hurdle in the quest for the NL Central, at least right now.

Even after Chicago started 0-4, it was difficult to imagine them folding like a cheap lawn chair.

At 0-2 before domestic Opening Day, the Cubs held a 36.1 percent chance of winning the division, according to FanGraphs’ playoff odds. They’ve since increased those odds to 43.9 percent. The Cardinals and their hot start have leapfrogged the Brewers. Their odds of winning the division have gone from 14.8 to 23 percent.

If you squint hard enough, and drink from a glass that’s half full, you can see a path for the Cardinals to compete in the NL Central this season. It’s a path full of perils, however, one that won’t be easily traversed.

Even if it’s not meant to be for the Cardinals, and they eventually bow out to the Cubs, you can see a version of this St. Louis team that will make it fun for the fans. At least the ones who show up.

This article first appeared on Just Baseball and was syndicated with permission.

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