Only three days ago, the Chicago Cubs’ backs were all the way up against the wall. They needed to win both games once the National League Division Series moved to Wrigley Field just to stay alive.
At that point, the odds the Cubs could even move the NLDS back to Milwaukee were low. According to ESPN Stats, entering this year, 90 teams in MLB postseason history had lost the first two games of a best-of-five series. Only 17 of them forced a Game 5 (18.89%).
The odds of a series win were even lower. As MLB.com noted entering Wednesday’s Game 3, in postseason history, teams like the Milwaukee Brewers, who’d taken a 2-0 lead in any best-of-five series, had won that series 80 of 90 times (88.9%). In the current 2-2-1 Division Series format, teams who’d won both Games 1 and 2 at home had advanced 31 of 34 times (91.2%), including 20 sweeps.
But the Cubs have since forced the winner-takes-all Game 5, set for 7:08 p.m. CT tonight at American Family Field. Now that they have, their odds of an NLDS win aren’t so slim.
That same ESPN Stats note also states that the teams to force a Game 5 have gone 10-7 in the decisive game. The outlook from MLB.com has also gotten brighter:
So, there’s a very real shot that Game 5 of the NLDS won’t be Chicago’s final game of 2025.
The Cubs have now won three consecutive elimination games!
— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) October 10, 2025
The last time they did this? When they were down 3-1 in the 2016 World Series pic.twitter.com/F3hPlGrGnN
Games 3 and 4 showed they have the necessary resilience to get the job done.
In Game 3, Michael Busch hit another leadoff home run as the offense scored four times in the first inning. Jameson Taillon tossed four innings of two-run ball, and five Chicago relievers held Milwaukee to one run over five innings.
In Game 4, Ian Happ hit a first-inning three-run homer off Brewers starter Freddy Peralta (who held the Cubs to two runs over 5 2/3 innings in Game 1). In the sixth inning, Matt Shaw plated an insurance run with his first career postseason RBI. Kyle Tucker and Busch then added solo shots in the seventh and eighth, respectively.
The pitching staff as a whole also looked as strong as it has all NLDS. Matthew Boyd, coming off a six-run (two-earned), 2/3-inning outing in Game 1, bounced back. He shut Milwaukee out over 4 2/3 innings, giving up two hits and three walks while striking out six. Chicago’s offense helped relieve some of the tension, and the bullpen threw another 4 1/3 scoreless to complete the shutout.
It was an overall dominant performance. Just like that, it seems like the momentum in this NLDS has really shifted toward the Cubs.
To start, they have to hope their offensive performance in Game 4 wasn’t a one-off.
It was Chicago’s second straight game scoring more than three runs. That didn’t happen in the ball club’s first five games of these playoffs.
That game also saw the Cubs shake off their post-first-inning scoring woes. Through the first three games of the NLDS combined, they’d scored eight runs in the first inning. But between the second and ninth, they only put up two runs (both on solo shots in Game 1 with the contest well out of reach).
Chicago still missed out on other scoring opportunities, including leaving 11 runners on base and going 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position following Happ’s three-run blast. Still, scoring three runs after the bottom of the first felt like a breath of fresh air.
Manager Craig Counsell’s plan of attack is unclear at the time of this writing (early Saturday morning). The Cubs have not yet named a starting pitcher (though neither have the Brewers).
Counsell told reporters Friday that, with the exception of Boyd, everyone will be available to pitch Saturday. So, there are plenty of options to choose from.
It could certainly be Shota Imanaga who gets the ball, since he’d be pitching on four day’s rest. But it might not be that simple.
In his 25 first innings combined during the regular season, Imanaga posted a 7.20 ERA, his worst mark of any frame. Also, in four career regular season starts against the Brewers, he’s recorded a 5.73 ERA. That rises to 7.20 in his three outings at American Family Field. Those marks, of course, don’t include his NLDS Game 2 performance (four earned runs over just 2 2/3 innings).
By the time you’re reading this, Chicago may have already named its starter. It could be Imanaga, with Counsell ready to make a move at the first sign of trouble. Counsell could also go with an opener instead, like he did with Andrew Kittredge ahead of Imanaga against the San Diego Padres in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series. Regardless, it’ll be all hands on deck on the pitching side.
Picking up a third straight ‘W’ today won’t be an easy task for the Cubs. Despite snatching the momentum in this series, they won’t have the Wrigley Field crowd behind them this time. They’re instead returning to Milwaukee, where the Brewers thoroughly outplayed them in the first two games.
But again, it’s now a winner-takes-all scenario. The pressure will be high for both dugouts.
If the Cubs’ pitching staff and lineup can perform the way they did in Chicago, they could very well be moving on to the National League Championship Series.
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