Curtis Mead Could be the Rays’ Next Big Thing

Even with the competition around him, Mead still flashed some strong carrying skills between the major and minor leagues in 2024 that inspire confidence that an impact bat is still in the cards going forward.

Mead’s bat speed ranked in the 81st percentile of all MLB hitters, and his max exit velo of 112.4 MPH had him in the 85th percentile.

The skills that didn’t quite transfer over were his excellent bat-to-ball ability, solid approach at the plate and propensity to do damage on fastballs.

While Mead’s batted-ball quality more or less stayed the same between Triple-A and the majors in 2023 and 2024, he saw a drop-off in his strikeout, walk, and whiff rates while he started to swing more often.

It would make sense if Mead started to press, feeling the need to prove himself capable at the next level — as young players often do amid early-career struggles — but if he truly can return to the hitter he was a couple of seasons ago, there’s no doubt he should find better results with the Rays.

Essentially, what Mead has done in the majors is adopt a more aggressive approach, which has cost him in how consistently he hits the ball well. The table above gives somewhat of a look into how the results and process have changed, but if you dive in a little further, you’ll see that Mead controlled the strike zone even better at Triple-A before 2024.

So, the fact that he’s cut his chase and swing rates already this spring can only be a positive sign that he’s more settled in his situation — even if it remains a tenuous one at best.

Another switch that he’s seemingly flipped in 2025 is his ability to hit the fastball.

Through his short time in the majors, Mead has managed a minus-9 run value, .222 average, .273 slug, and 36.0% hard-hit rate against heaters. In contrast, his minor-league numbers over the same timeframe tell a different story — he hit .259, slugged .529, and posted a 45.9% hard-hit rate against the same offerings.

Once again, it’s drawing from a small sample, but Mead has yet to swing and miss at a fastball this spring, and has a 50% hard-hit rate on the ones he has put into play. This further reinforces the notion that there is a different hitter stepping to the plate wearing No. 25 for the Rays in 2025.

How can Mead Earn Playing Time in 2025?

There’s still a world where Tampa Bay sends Mead back to Triple-A to begin the season if it feels set with Caminero at third, Lowe at second, and Morel and Aranda filling in the gaps at designated hitter and in the outfield.

But given what Mead has done in Grapefruit League action, it would surely be a surprise not to see him grabbing a bench spot at the bare minimum for Opening Day.

Whether it’s on the bench or in the starting nine, however, Mead still has lots to prove. There have been many cases of good springs that end up meaningless once the regular season begins and the numbers reset. If he can’t produce, no one’s going to remember what his OPS was in the middle of March.

The Rays, of course, aren’t afraid of going against convention, but even with the crowded roster, there are pathways for Mead to secure at-bats early in the season. Whether it’s platooning with Lowe or Aranda or mixing in as part of a third base/DH rotation with Caminero, Tampa Bay has options.

Ultimately, these things have a way of working themselves out, but the most obvious solution may be working Mead into a platoon with Aranda — who has a career .133 average and 31.4% strikeout rate against lefties.

Tampa Bay has long been the home of unexpected breakouts. While Mead may be a more recognizable name to fans MLB-wide than some of the Rays’ past success stories, he might be the next star to break through in Tampa after their early-career hype faded.

All stats from after play on March 16 and courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball Savant