Daily MLB Home Run Prop, Saturday 6/7

Everyone knows fans dig the longball — so every day I post my favorite Home Run calls for a fun, low-risk approach to baseball betting. Make sure to bookmark our Athlon Sports Betting tab to be first on who's going yard today.

START TIME 9:38 pm EST, Angels Stadium

Cal Raleigh's among the hottest hitters in baseball by any objective measure. In fact, our latest edition of MLB's Hottest Hitters featured an image of Big Dumper in the headline. Talk about achieving peak celebrity status, huh? Over the last three weeks, you could argue Raleigh's been the most productive hitter in the game — 83 PA; 0.310 BA, 1.214 OPS, 26.7% Barrel, 0.497 wOBA, 11 HR. Wow. 

He'll be hitting on the road (guaranteed ninth frame) with the wind blowing +8 mph out to center in Angel Stadium — home to the fourth highest Park Factor for home runs per Baseball Savant. The opposition? L.A.'s Jack Kochanowicz, one of the bigger SP mysteries out there,

Always known for command and control coming up through the system, Kochanowicz stayed right on brand by posting a 3.8% BB through 65.1 IP in his MLB debut — not too shabby. Fast forward to 2025 and the 24-year-old RHP can't find the plate, evidenced in the ballooned disciplinary metrics (37.8% Ball, 11.3% BB) and 24 free passes in his last 37.1 IP of work. That's a +5.7 BB/9 across 7 GS, which is completely untenable for the majors.

Forced into the zone with the four-seamer's really hurt Kochanowicz, who has allowed a ridiculous 48.5% hard hit rate and 10 longballs this season — nine of those to southpaws. 

LAGHEZZA'S LEAN:

While I absolutely think Cal's going yard tonight, I either have to find something to pair it with or a better book. It's almost impossible to find value on a home run at shorter than (+300) odds. Maybe it's a DFS night for me...