Drake Baldwin Could Take Another Leap in 2026

2025 Rookie Season

Heading into spring training last season, Baldwin was a relatively unknown prospect to many.

Drafted in the third round of the 2022 MLB Draft out of Missouri State, he never really produced gaudy numbers in his three minor-league seasons. He had a respectable .272 batting average and .807 OPS, but had not cracked any top-100 prospect lists.

Despite his 2024 season being slightly worse than his 2023, he was named to the Future’s Game. And by the end of the season, the hype was starting to build.

Luckily for the Braves, that hype kept Baldwin on multiple 2025 preseason top 100 lists, including an industry-high No. 17 overall ranking by Just Baseball. He joined big-league camp to begin spring training, but he could have never expected what would ensure the rest of the year.

Sean Murphy would be placed on the IL with a cracked rib after being hit by a pitch during a spring training game. That left only Chadwick Tromp, Sandy León, and Curt Casali as his competition, so Baldwin now had a clear path to significant playing time.

After batting .286 with four RBIs, eight walks, and just four strikeouts, he was promptly named the Opening Day starting catcher. After a rough, and unlucky, 1-for-18 stretch in which his wOBA fell a whopping 316 points lower than his xwOBA, Baldwin became one of the better offensive catchers in baseball.

He would go on to produce a slash line of .274/.341/.469 with an .810 OPS, 125 wRC+, and 3.1 fWAR, all of which ranked in the top six for catchers with at least 400 plate appearances. And the expected metrics supported this.

This earned him National League Rookie of the Year honors, beating out Cade Horton, Caleb Durbin, and Isaac Collins.

2026 Sophomore Season

Everyone knows about the dreaded “sophomore slump” that most professional athletes run into during their second season. However, through the first 13 games of the 2026 season Baldwin has debunked any notions that he may suffer from that disease.

He is slashing .321/.390/.623 with a 1.012 OPS, .448 wOBA, and 183 wRC+. Yet again, the expected metrics are supporting his stats.

He has hit for both average and power, ranking eighth in the MLB in total hits with 17 and tied for the league lead in home runs with five. Needless to say, Baldwin has not only been one of the hottest catchers in baseball, but one of the hottest hitters in all of baseball.

Is This Sustainable?

Still, some may be skeptical if this is the real Drake Baldwin, despite having now logged 137 MLB games. He was not a college superstar at an SEC school, a top pick in the MLB Draft, nor did he make noise throughout the minor leagues. So, how can he really be one of the best catchers in baseball?

Let’s take a look at his profile.

In 2025, Baldwin produced a 91.7 mph average exit velocity, ranking top 50 in MLB. This was only 0.3 mph lower than Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and 0.4 mph higher than Cal Raleigh. His 49.6% hard-hit rate tied Raleigh and ranked higher than Gunnar Henderson, Mike Trout, and Julio Rodriguez.

This season, his exit velocity (90.5 mph) and hard-hit rate (45.5%) have taken slight dips, Baldwin’s barrel rate has increased from 11.0% to 15.9%, tying for the third-most recorded barrels in baseball.

One of Baldwin’s calling cards is his elite bat speed. In both seasons, he has ranked well within the 90th percentile, averaging 75.3 mph as a big leaguer. This ranks above Pete Alonso and Shohei Ohtani.

The supporting profile does not end at just the physical nature of Baldwin’s swing and contact skills. From game one of the 2025 season, he has displayed great feel for the strike zone as if he were a 10-year veteran.

As a rookie, while he did record an average chase rate of 28.9%, his whiff rate landed at an impressive 19.5%. It is understandable for rookies to chase as they face the best competition of their lives. However, what was impressive to me was the fact that Baldwin rarely whiffed and he produced an 11% barrel rate when he would swing.

Through it’s a small sample size of 13 games this year, he has actually slightly worse whiff and chase rates. But when you look at the entirety of his batted-ball profile, he is producing better than he had last year. I expect these numbers to normalize as the season progresses, still having one of the better stat lines in baseball.

Finally, being a left-handed hitter, opposing managers will typically counter with a left-handed pitcher when possible, especially out of the bullpen. Last season, lefties recorded a .655 OPS and 84 wRC+ against opposing left-handed pitchers but recorded a .744 OPS and 107 wRC+ against righties.

Baldwin, however, is not affected.

He recorded an .818 OPS and 129 wRC+ last season against southpaws, which was better than his .808 OPS and 124 wRC+ against righties. Baldwin has an .889 OPS and 154 wRC+ against opposing left-handed pitchers so far this season.

Since debuting, Baldwin has the fourth-best batting average (.310), seventh-best OPS (.847) and 10th-best strikeout rate (14.7%) for left-handed batters with at least 70 plate appearances against southpaws.

Clearly it does not matter whether he faces a righty or a lefty, Drake Baldwin will produce.

What Does This Mean?

To me, all of these data points suggest that Baldwin has not only been one of the better offensive players in baseball since his debut, but that the underlying metrics support future success. With each game, he looks more confident and comfortable at the plate.

He may never hit 60 home runs like Cal Raleigh, or have the defensive metrics of Patrick Bailey, but what he will give you is a blend of above-average defense with one of the more consistent bats in the game.

It is safe to say that if this continues, Drake Baldwin will undeniably be considered a top-five catcher in baseball, and top-50 player in the MLB.