Examining the Phillies' blockbuster trade for star closer Jhoan Duran

The possibility of the Twins trading Duran began to seem more and more realistic over the past couple of days, with the 51-57 Twins looking to take advantage of a seller’s market and a bevy of contending teams seeking late-inning bullpen help. It was no secret the Phillies were one such club. A few weeks ago, The Athletic’s Matt Gelb reported that Duran (and teammate Griffin Jax) would be “prized targets” for Philadelphia, noting that, in contrast to past deadlines, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski was prioritizing “controllable big leaguers” and, in particular, a controllable “shutdown, late-inning reliever.” Since Gelb’s initial report, several more sources linked the Phillies to Duran, including Nightengale and the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, but the most recent reporting indicated that their refusal to part with top prospect Andrew Painter would ultimately prevent them from landing Duran, with both Nightengale and Rosenthal and Gelb suggesting as much. Evidently, the Twins softened their demands, but there is no doubt the Phillies still paid a high price to acquire their new bullpen ace.

Tait is widely considered a top-100 prospect, ranked 50th by Baseball America, 51st by Baseball Prospectus and 56th by MLB Pipeline. As BA notes, he is their first top-100 prospect to be traded ahead of the deadline since 2023, and the highest ranked since 2022. Whether or not the Twins achieved their reported goal of landing two top-100 prospects in exchange for Duran depends on which lists you’re looking at; Abel is currently No. 92 on MLB Pipeline’s list, but he dropped off BA’s most recent post-draft rankings and fell off BP’s list after 2023. For what it’s worth, neither Tait nor Abel was included on FanGraphs’ latest top 100 update.

Looking beyond the arbitrary “top 100” cutoff, however, what matters is that the Twins received a pair of highly talented young players, of a caliber rarely seen moved in deadline deals. Tait is a bat-first catcher with big power and a strong throwing arm, but the rest of his defensive game needs significant work. Still, the bat has enough potential that he could succeed in the majors (presumably at first base or DH) even if he doesn’t stick behind the plate. He lit up the competition in the Dominican Summer League and the Florida Complex League in his first two professional seasons, but he hasn’t looked quite as powerful in Single-A and High-A this year. That said, he’s only 18 years old, which is young for his level, and scouting reports matter far more than his numbers right now. Dan Hayes of The Athletic notes that the Twins have “very good” internal grades on Tait.

Abel might not have quite as much upside as he once did, but he has looked much better this year than he did in 2023 or ’24. He has a 2.31 ERA and 3.56 FIP in 13 Triple-A starts, both his best numbers at any level in any year of his professional career. While he looked overmatched at times in his first six MLB starts for the Phillies, his mediocre overall numbers are the combination of three strong starts and three disappointing outings. He’s not there quite yet, but he showed signs that he could soon become a capable big league starting pitcher. Whether that’s a mid-rotation or back-end starter remains is now up to the Twins, but he has good raw stuff and a deep arsenal for their development and coaching staffs to work with.

Heading into play today, the Phillies ranked 24th in MLB with a 4.33 bullpen ERA and 15th with a 3.82 bullpen SIERA. Their strong starting rotation has helped to limit the bullpen’s workload (their bullpen ranks last in innings pitched), but still, it’s not hard to understand why Dombrowski was looking for a significant upgrade. Philadelphia’s longest tenured reliever, hard-throwing lefty José Alvarado, will be out until mid-August serving a PED suspension, and he won’t be eligible to pitch in the playoffs. Jordan Romano, the team’s primary bullpen acquisition of the offseason, has struggled to a 6.81 ERA. No one knows what to expect from David Robertson, who did not sign with a team until earlier this month. He remained one of the best relievers in baseball at age 39 in 2024, but he essentially started his spring training last week. Orion Kerkering and Matt Strahm have provided manager Rob Thomson with a couple of reliable back-end options, but as the Phillies battle with the Mets for the NL East crown and look to contend for a World Series, it’s clear to see why they identified Duran as a major difference-maker.

As for the Twins, there is now no question they are in full sell mode, having dealt Duran and Chris Paddack, whom they sent to the Tigers on Monday. This makes it seem all the more likely that they will soon trade Willi Castro, Harrison Bader and Danny Coulombe, all of whom are set to hit free agency at the end of the season. However, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand notes that Minnesota is now far more likely to hold on to Jax, their other controllable relief ace.