FanGraphs Big on Braves Chances at World Series

An off year may not have dampened expectations for the Atlanta Braves as much as we thought. FanGraphs has put out its playoff odds for the upcoming season, and the Braves come into it with one of the best odds to win the World Series. 

They were given a 10.2% chance to win it all, which is second only to the back-to-back champions, the Dodgers. Their odds sit at a ridiculous 28.4%. 

Along with their solid odds at a championship, it in turn comes with high odds to be back to playing baseball in October. They have the second-best odds to make the playoffs at 87.7% ahead of Spring Training. In case you were wondering, the Dodgers lead the way with a 99.1% chance. 

As part of this projection as well, the Braves are projected to finish 91-71, which would win them the division by two games. It would also represent a 15-win improvement. 

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In the end, a few factors likely played a role in these favorable odds. This team has a strong core when healthy, which includes multiple multi-time All-Stars. They have a recent Cy Young Award winner and a recent Rookie of the Year winner. Ronald Acuña Jr. didn’t even have to start the season healthy to be a starter in the All-Star Game back over the summer. 

They also made some solid additions that should help. Robert Suarez will help lock down the bullpen. Ha-Seong Kim will still be around for most of the season. You can argue that Mauricio Dubon is still an upgrade over Nick Allen. Mike Yastzremski doesn’t replace the power bat that Marcell Ozuna had before last season, but he brings a solid bat to the table. 

Jurickson Profar missed half of last season due to being suspended for a positive test for PEDs. However, that shouldn’t be an issue this season, and the lineup is better without him. 

This is specifically why, in a vacuum, they got the odds that they did. These odds factor in injuries, but only those that we already know about. It can factor in Kim and Sean Murphy, but it isn’t going to project that someone will be on the 60-day injured list. 

Five starting pitchers were not projected to be hurt for multiple months. If FanGraphs had had a crystal ball for that, the Braves' more hopeful expectations ahead of last season would have likely taken a sizable hit. Not having a starting rotation would have done that. 

FanGraphs also likely expected Ozuna to do more. It also didn’t predict that Profar would lose 80 games of his season. The thousands of simulations that created these odds were tasked to make the most logical projections possible. 

Keep that in mind when you see these odds and go, I don’t know about that. It’s valid to need to wait and see. However, the projections make sense when you take the current status of the team into account. 

Other Playoff Odds Within NL East

The only other team that has postseason odds at 80% or better is the Mets. They are also the only other team to have their championship odds sit at 7% or better. Despite the loss of Pete Alonso, Edwin Diaz, Tyler Rogers, Jeff McNeil and Brandon Nimmo, they have been able to make the moves that help their standing. 

It helps when the replacements are Bo Bichette, Freddy Peralta, Devin Williams and Marcus Semien. 

Meanwhile, despite winning the National League East the past two seasons, the Phillies were given favorable, but far from guaranteed, championship or playoff odds, sitting at 4.2% and 65.6%, respectively. 

While they were able to add a reliever in Brad Keller and re-sign catcher JT Realmuto, their rotation took a hit when they lost Ranger Suarez to the Red Sox. 

Despite their strong run midway through last season, the Marlins have only 7.9% chance of reaching the postseason. Meanwhile, the Nationals have less than a 1% chance.

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