Fantasy Baseball 2026: Examining Nolan McLean’s Greatness

McLean is must-see-TV, as Mets rookie Dwight Gooden was a generation ago. His greatness is becoming obscured by a lack of wins and a punchless Mets offense. But, make no mistake about it, when we tick off the best pitchers in the game, McLean is in the group with Tarik Skubal, Paul Skenes, Yamamoto and Ohtani. And it won’t take much for him to move to the top of that group.

Surface Stats vs. Underlying Metrics in 2026

McLean’s early performance by the usual statistical measure are impressive, but not otherworldly. He is 1-1 with a 2.28 ERA through four starts. He’s walked two hitters in each of his four starts, averaging over three per nine innings, not a great mark. His 10.65 K/9 is impressive, but so is most everyone’s in MLB these days.

Statistically, McLean has done little to stand out.

But looking at his stuff and Statcast data, we can guess that a 2.28 ERA might hold for an entire season, if not go lower. Here are two cards from Baseball Savant that tell us a lot about McLean.

The chart on the left shows his percentiles among MLB pitchers. Other than a few factors, he grades on the excellent scale. The right side shows his true danger. Look at the curveball (teal) and the sweeper (darker yellow). The shaded areas are the normal MLB movement for said pitches. With movement between 18 and 24 inches, McLean is nowhere close to average. His Stuff+ grade on Fangraphs is mixed, though. The curve this season grades at 133 (100 is league average) and his sweeper grades out at just 81, though I suspect that is because it moves so far out of the strike zone, that its location grade hurts the overall Stuff+ metrics.

You also see on the left that batters are not chasing much, though the whiff percentage is much higher. When they do chase, though, they are confounded.

When Seth Lugo debuted for the Mets last decade, he made headlines for the spin rate. Nolan McLean just told him “hold my beer.” In fact, here are the pitchers with the most pitches with spin rates over 3300 revolutions per minute in MLB this year:

McLean owns the highest average spin rate on his sweeper and curveball but is fairly pedestrian on his other pitches. But that could explain the deceiving movement that often freezes and confuses hitters:

The Role of Luck and Team Context

Run Support, BABIP, and Strand Rate

While McLean’s BABIP is just .176, his ground ball rate so far has fallen from an excellent 61 percent in 2025 to just 48 percent, still a very good mark. His strand rate (percentage of runners left on base) is down to 68.2 percent from 84.1 percent a year ago, contributing to his giving up runs in each start.

Other than a 10-3 Mets win against the Giants, McLean’s team has struggled to score runs for him in his starts. It’s reminiscent of a stretch in 2018 and 2019 when Jacob deGrom went 10-9 and 11-8 with ERAs of 1.70 and 2.43. Even last season, Skenes won the Cy Young Award with a 1.97 ERA but a 10-10 record for the Pirates.

Roster Advice for Fantasy Baseball Managers

Hold, Buy Low, or Sell High?

If you don’t own McLean, you should want to. It might be the right time to get him. We are still locked into the “aces vs. aces” portion of the season where teams’ best pitchers face off almost nightly. Talk up “McLean can win if the Mets don’t score and the Mets never score” to the McLean owner.

If you own McLean, though, you should know that you can fix just about any hole on your roster through a trade. Assuming you have, or can find, enough pitching to offset most of what you’ll lose by not owning McLean, he can help you bridge the gap in stolen bases or batting average/on base percentage or other areas where your team is underachieving.

Don’t try to talk about McLean trades with a Yankee fan who will tell you that Cam Schlittler is the better arm, a NY sports debate stirring on sports radio and Twitter. But everyone else should at least be open to listening. McLean is someone you will want on your team, particularly in a keeper league, if you have that option.

Nolan McLean 2026 Fantasy Questions, Answered

Why does Nolan McLean have so few wins despite his historic start in 2026?
The Mets are simply not scoring runs for him, much like the deGrom era. His underlying pitch metrics remain elite.

Is Nolan McLean’s curveball spin rate sustainable in 2026?
Yes. His spin rate and movement profile are among the best in baseball and are backed by consistent mechanics.

Should I roster Nolan McLean in fantasy leagues right now?
Absolutely. Treat the lack of run support as temporary bad luck. His stuff suggests ace-level production once the Mets score.

How sustainable are Nolan McLean’s early 2026 results?
Extremely sustainable when viewed through Statcast. The metrics support long-term dominance despite the win-loss record.

What should fantasy managers monitor in Nolan McLean’s next starts?
Watch for continued elite spin and movement, any improvement in run support, and strand-rate normalization.