Fireball pitching backfired on the 2026 Chicago Cubs

Last year, five of the Cubs mentioned previously averaged a fastball above 96.0 MPH. That includes Palencia (99.2), Zeferjahn (97.6), Brown (96.3), Harvey (97.6), and Cabrera (96.3). Both Yacksel Ríos (98.1) and Antoine Kelly (96.2) did too, though they both pitched under 2.0 innings. Everyone but Harvey, Ríos, and Kelly qualified for Statcast fastball velocity percentile stats, and all were above the 80th percentile.

To review how those pitchers fared, it was a mix of injuries, poor pitching, or both. Harvey pitched in four games in April, then suffered right triceps inflammation, and never returned. Brown was the Cubs’ best pitcher (1.85 ERA, 2.50 FIP, 0.9 WHIP) until his neck issues returned in mid-June, and he was eventually shut down. Palencia missed two months mid-season with a flexor strain, and was a mixed bag (3.64 ERA, 4.04 FIP) when he did pitch. Cabrera was on and off the IL with a hamstring injury and blisters, and wasn’t good (5.96 ERA, 5.35 ERA, 1.5 WHIP) on the mound. Zeferjahn was acquired at the deadline and started poorly with a 7.20 ERA over his first 10 innings. To his credit, he finished strong with a 1.13 ERA and 2.35 FIP the rest of the way.

We have to mention Horton. Even though his average velocity wasn’t quite 96 MPH+ (95.5), he was developing into a special pitcher with some zip before the UCL injury. It’s also worth mentioning hard-throwing prospect Jaxon Wiggins, who was also hurt for much of last year.

Cubs fans scratch their heads

It’s no wonder the average fastball velocity was still down. All the players listed above who averaged above 96.0 MPH accounted for roughly 14% of innings pitched by the staff. While guys like Cabrera struggled, general availability was a huge issue.

The coaching and conditioning have come into question. Why so many injuries? There’ve also been plenty of questions about why the organization hasn’t successfully developed more high-powered arms internally. Not simple questions to answer, but ones the Cubs are actively working on. They went very heavy on pitching in the draft and are revamping the international scouting department to help restock the system with more young arms.

Time will tell how they develop, and hopefully next year the Cubs have a healthier and more efficient staff. A hard fastball does not automatically make a pitcher good, nor is it the only path to being a good pitcher. However, high-powered arms are so prevalent in modern baseball, and they’re a must-have on a staff to win meaningful games.