MLB News

Home

Teams

Quizzes

Watch

Newsletter

Pictured: Juan Soto. Photo by New York Yankees/Getty Images

Fireworks at Fenway: Yankees vs. Red Sox pick, odds, predictions for Fri. 7/26

Originally posted on Action Network | By Mike Ianniello | Last updated Jul 26, 2024 10:12 AM ET

I want to start by saying that as a Yankees fan, it bums me out to have to write about this game. It is depressing and I want nothing to do with it.

The Red Sox have gone 13-6 against New York over the last two seasons and have won each of the first two meetings this season. On top of that, the Yankees are coming off a dreadful two-game sweep at home to the Mets and has won just one series since the first week of June.

Boston has its own problems, starting the second half just 1-5 and coming off a 20-7 thumping at the hands of the lowly Rockies.

Baseball’s best rivalry ships up to Boston for a three-game set concluding on "Sunday Night Baseball." But where does the betting value lie on Friday’s opener? Check out my pick and preview for the Red Sox vs. Yankees below.

Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds

Friday, July 26, 7:10 p.m. ET, NESN

Yankees Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-1.5 +130	9.5 -105o / -115u	-130

Red Sox Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+1.5 -155	9.5 -105o / -115u	+110

Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Check out Yardbarker's betting hub for odds, picks, predictions and analysis — and start winning TODAY!

New York Yankees

Nestor Cortes gets the ball for the Yankees and recently things for Nasty Nestor have been a bit gross. He has allowed 11 runs in his last two starts and surrendered at least three runs in four of his last five.

Cortes has allowed a hard-hit rate of 44.6% this season, the highest mark of his career and bottom 10% of the league. His strikeout rate is also down and he is leaving stuff in the zone that opponents are able to barrel. His 19 home runs allowed are already the most of his career.

Look, I’m not going to say the Yankees offense is only two players. It’s obviously true, but I’m not going to say it. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto both have an OPS over 1.000 this season. The next highest guy currently in the lineup is Austin Wells at .726. Additionally, a guy not good enough for the Oakland A’s in J.D. Davis was batting clean up for New York this week.

Boston Red Sox

25-year-old Brayan Bello has flashed his talent at times but just has not come together this season. He has struggled to a 5.27 ERA this year and has a 6.33 ERA since the beginning of June.

In today’s game, most young prospects are developing a wide array of pitches to use, but Bello has just four in his pitch mix, and really only uses three pitches. He relies on a sinker, slider, changeup mix, and his sinker has been absolutely crushed. Opponents are hitting .363 against his sinker this season.

Boston ranks fourth in the league in wOBA thanks to Rafael Devers and an All-Star season from Jarren Duran. These two have been consistent throughout the season and Duran is on fire right now and Devers has like a 4.000 OPS in his career against the Yankees.

Yankees vs. Red Sox

Betting Pick & Prediction

These two pitchers are both trending in the wrong direction. Bello has struggled all season, allowing a ton of hard contact and Cortes is been brutal lately. He has also been horrific on the road. At Yankee Stadium, Cortes has enjoyed a 2.48 ERA but on the road, he is 0-5 with a 6.04 ERA and teams are hitting .301 against him.

Among all pitchers with at least 90 innings pitched, they have the 15^th and 16^th highest home run rates allowed. Now they’ll face offenses that rank second and seventh in home runs hit this season.

On the season, these are two top 10 offenses in wRC+ and two top five offenses in wOBA, with the Yankees sitting second and the Red Sox fourth. Even among their recent struggles, New York still ranks third in the league in wRC+ over the last two weeks and Boston sits fifth.

Bello relies on his sinker more than any other pitch and has really struggled with it. The Yankees hit sinkers better than any team in the league by a mile. It’s no surprise they current Yankees roster is batting .311 with a .364 wOBA in their careers against Bello.

I expect to see some fireworks on Friday night for two teams desperate for a win, facing two struggling pitchers who are prime fade candidates.