San Francisco Giants designated hitter Rafael Devers (16) reacts after striking out during the third inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

Giants NL Wild Card Hopes Appear at Realistic End After Dodgers Loss

Originally posted on San Francisco Giants on SI
By Matt Postins | Last updated Sep 20, 2025 11:00 AM ET

Math can only do so much for a team like the San Francisco Giants. Right now, math is their enemy when it comes to a National League playoff berth.

The Giants are now two games under .500 after their 6-3 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers on Friday night. San Francisco has two more games with its arch-rival this weekend, but it's nearly impossible to see a realistic path for the Giants to make the playoffs. Yes, San Francisco is still mathematically in the equation. But too many things would have to go their way, and too much help would have to be provided for the Giants to make October baseball.

San Francisco had an early lead, but a decisive fifth inning from the Dodgers, in which they scored four runs, was the difference in the game.

The Giants Bad Playoff Math

Leadoff homer for Ramos pic.twitter.com/BBPRxnYUIl
— SFGiants (@SFGiants) September 20, 2025

It wasn't that long ago that the giants were just a half game behind the New York Mets for the final wild card berth. But the Giants have fallen into a tailspin since then. San Francsico has lost six of its last seven game while the Mets have pulled their way out of an eight-game losing streak to reclaim their playoff destiny.

New York hasn’t claimed a playoff berth, but its more concerned with the Cincinnati Reds, who are two games back, than the Giants, who are now four games back with eight games to play. The Mets won on Friday and coupled with the Giants loss, that should have dropped the Mets’ magic number to eliminate the Giants to five.

Even without magic number what San Francisco must do is clear. With eight games to play the Giants must win five more games than the Mets, even though New York is four games ahead. That’s because New York owns the tiebreaker. It’s a daunting challenge at this point, almost too daunting for a team that was red-hot not more than a week ago.

If San Francisco falls short, it will be their fourth straight season without a playoff berth and its first season without one under new president of baseball operations Buster Posey.