Harper, Machado already influencing MLB free agency

If any word could be used to describe the front end of Major League Baseball’s offseason, "plodding" would be the most accurate term to sum it up. Those who entered the winter anticipating excitement along the waves of winter free agency and trade bustle have instead been met by a confusing mixture of seeming indifference and/or stunning patience regarding any substantial moves coming to fruition as the calendar year comes to close.

While the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes, courting of Giancarlo Stanton and lukewarm dangling of Manny Machado have dominated the headlines, the MLB’s hot stove continues to flicker its way toward 2018 with very little in the way definitive excitement around the biggest free agent names to be.

A handful of reasons could be playing a part in the process dragging on thus far. With so many marquee names put forward as available on the trade market, many GMs have opted to swap prospect value in lieu of cash. And while many teams have been preoccupied with either picking through the yard sale in Miami, lining up their bid for Ohtani or in some cases both, the high-end free agent market has gone relatively untouched.

The real reason for why so many clubs are sitting on their hands may ultimately have less to do with this year’s crop of available upgrades, which includes a recent Cy Young Award winner in Jake Arrieta, J.D. Martinez fresh off a 45 home run season and the spattering of recent, youthful World Series champions from Kansas City. Rather, it has everything to do with the anticipation of what awaits 10 months from now, when arguably most impressive collection of free agents ever hits the open market at once. Next year will be the most expensive winter in baseball history, by far. However, unlike many other offseason spending sessions, which are ripe with red flags and cautionary tales (such as this one), there is a green light to wheel and deal with little remorse or reserve.

Headlined by a pair of precocious wunderkinds in Bryce Harper and Machado, who will hit free agency at stunningly early ages, the free agency class next year has long been heralded as being capable of garnering over $2 billion in new contracts and creating a seismic shift in the MLB power balance.

Aside from obvious talents of Harper and Machado, there is the chance that Clayton Kershaw is in play as well, as he holds an opt-out following next season. The likes of Charlie Blackmon, Josh Donaldson, Brian Dozier, Andrew McCutchen, Andrew Miller, Craig Kimbrel, A.J. Pollock, Elvis Andrus, Nelson Cruz and Daniel Murphy are all also entering the final year of their current pacts. It is a collective that was good for 54.5 wins last year, even with Harper missing over a month. Even some of the more uncertain quantities who could be in play next year, such as David Price and Zach Britton, would be standout options among each of the previous two free agent crops, a telling fact about how deep next winter’s talent pool is.

In comparison, this year’s headliners — largely comprising Arrieta and Martinez, along with Yu Darvish, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, Wade Davis, Lance Lynn, Greg Holland, Carlos Santana, Jay Bruce and Zack Cozart — produced a 38.2 WAR, a 30 percent less impactful class than next year’s crop. Add in the incredible upside of the headliners of next winter, and it is completely understandable why this year’s group pales in comparison regarding urgency of interest.

Speaking of upside, it is a very expensive quality to obtain, especially when it comes to an undeniable superstar like Harper. At age 25, he is already an MVP, a five-time All-Star and owner of 150 home runs, and he projects to have a decade of top-tier production head of him. As a Scott Boras client, the question is not if Harper will receive the biggest free agent deal in baseball history. The better question is if he will he make more than the all the Marlins in 2019, combined. That might be a slight exaggeration, the emphasis should be on slight, as he could be worth half the value of a $90 million payroll by himself.

Harper is set to take baseball salaries to a stratosphere hovering around NBA and soccer star levels. It is the type of commitment that does not come lightly for any club. The ability to acquire the most accomplished sub-30 free agent ever will have plenty of unlikely suitors counting their pennies to land an instant building block for the next decade. As a result, they will likely pass on many of the usual — yet costly— fits that are available this winter.