Has the American League MVP Already Been Decided?

That’s not even all his career accomplishments as he’s already made four All-Star rosters while being named the American League Rookie of the Year in 2019. Alvarez’ contributions also helped the Astros win the 2022 World Series when they took down the Philadelphia Phillies in six games.

The only thing missing from what’s been an amazing career thus far is the honors of American League Most Valuable Player.

Stats updated prior to games on Monday, August 17

Alvarez Has Simply Mashed In 2026

Now in terms of what Alvarez has been able to accomplish this season, it’s pretty incredible. He currently leads the American League in hits (143), home runs (36), and runs batted in (88), while leading the majors entirely in batting average (.321), on-base percentage (.435), slugging percentage (.619), OPS (1.053), and total bases (276). He’s been incredibly fun to watch this season and actually might not be getting the attention he deserves.

Alvarez won’t offer much else besides the bat, but the offensive production he’s shown has certainly outperformed his lack of speed and ability to defend in the outfield. That’s been the only flaw in his game — his sprint speed ranks in the sixth percentile and he doesn’t offer much defensive value during the few games he’s played in the outfield.

Getting back to the offensive side of Alvarez’ game, he’s been one of the best pure power hitters in the game. What’s incredible is that his .619 slugging percentage is already great by itself, but his .681 expected slugging percentage (which ranks in the 100th percentile) shows us that he actually has more in the tank. The same story applies to his .321 batting average that’s backed by an incredible .330 expected mark (also 100th percentile).

Alvarez has already proved to be MVP-caliber but he might actually have more to show.

Diving deeper in the true power that Alvarez has displayed this season, let’s just say his numbers are fantastic. He’s making hard-contact 53.4% of the time, ranking in the 97th percentile and his hits have averaged an exit-velocity of 94.5 mph, placing him in the 99th percentile. Alvarez has been able to accomplish these feats because he has an elite ability of getting the barrel to the baseball 17.7% of the time, matched with an excellent 41.9% launch-angel sweet spot rate.

It’s pretty typical to see a power hitter paired with a lot of strikeouts, like Kyle Schwarber for instance, but Alvarez has been the complete opposite. While these marks aren’t amazing, they are certainly above league-average. He’ll only expand the zone and chase 27.9% (63rd percentile) of the time while whiffing at just 19.9% (75th percentile) of pitches. This has resulted in a very respectable 16.8% strikeout rate paired with a superb 15.9% walk rate.

It’s definitely safe to say that Alvarez has one of the best all-around offensive profiles in the majors.

What Does the Competition Look Like?

Now, we’ve gone over the amazing case that Alvarez is making for American League Most Valuable Player and he’s certainly the front-runner as of now, but who else could end up challenging him in the final month or so of the season? There’s a few players who could end up being in the mix, but Alvarez definitely has the upper hand as of now.

Junior Caminero, Ben Rice, and Dillon Dingler are likely the only other players that would be considered, pending a drastic change in performance until the season’s end. Kevin McGonigle has had a fantastic season as well but he might be better suited for American League Rookie of the Year honors.

Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Caminero is continuing to show that he’s one of the better young players in the league. After breaking out in 2025 with 45 home runs and 110 runs batted in, he hasn’t let up thus far in 2026 already totaling 35 home runs and 79 runs batted in. This season he’s currently on pace to set career highs in batting average (.274), on-base percentage (.364), and slugging percentage (.541).

New York Yankees first baseman Rice is having himself a really good season but he’s definitely slowed down in production thus far in the second half. He posted a .971 OPS before the All-Star break, but it’s since dropped to a .573 clip in the second half. Putting that aside, Rice was named an All-Star for the first time and he’s already mashed 33 home runs alongside a .877 OPS.

Dingler was also a first time All-Star this year along with Rice and he’s been the best catcher in the majors this season. He’s mashed 24 doubles and 26 home runs while driving in 82 runs in the process to go along with a .259 batting average and a .821 OPS. If Dingler keeps up his production through the season’s end, he could definitely be a dark horse contender for the AL MVP honors.

To wrap things up, Alvarez is certainly a player worth paying attention to through the rest of the season and he might’ve already secured the hardware for AL MVP. It’ll be fun to watch how he performs down the stretch along with Caminero, Rice, Dingler, and maybe others too.