Houston Astros Arbitration Projections and Tender Decisions

Once a team comes up with its projected salary for all of its arbitration-eligible players, it will begin a tender analysis to simply determine: “Are we comfortable guaranteeing Player X this much money?”

If the answer is yes, the player will be tendered a contract prior to the mid-November Tender Deadline. Tendering a contract means the team offers the player a contract for the following season while retaining his rights, with the player’s salary either agreed to later or determined through the arbitration process.

If the answer is no, the player will be DFA’d/non-tendered. Once a player is non-tendered, he is removed from the 40-man roster and becomes a free agent immediately.

The other option a team has is to pre-tender a player, which is a contract agreed to before the Tender Deadline that takes the player out of the arbitration process. This is typically done when a team wants to keep a player, but only at a slightly discounted rate, or when it is a very obvious, typically small raise case that teams like to get out of the way.

This article dives into the market analysis of each case, showing the reasoning behind my leaguewide salary projections, before predicting the tender decision for each player.

All opinions in this article are my own, there was no non-public information used in my analysis.

Houston Astros Roster Outlook

40-MAN + 60-DAY IL (NON-FA): 42

PENDING FA + MUTUAL OPTIONS: 6

OPTIONS: 1; Tatsuya Imai (Player, $18M)

R5 PROJECTED ADDITIONS: 1; Jackson Nezuh

ISAAC PAREDES (5.160): $13,650,000 ($13.35M Club Option)

The Case: Paredes put together another strong offensive season, totaling 659 PA with 25 HR and 94 RBI to the tune of a 130 wRC+. Gleyber Torres (2023, $4.25M raise) is the primary comparison after a similarly strong offensive platform season posting 25 HR and 122 wRC+ in 672 PA.

Paredes has a case to get just above Torres with the stronger rate production, leading to a $4.3M raise and $13.65M arbitration projection. However, Paredes has a $13.35M conditional club option, which the Astros should exercise if it remains available.

Tender Prediction: The Astros should pick up Paredes’ club option. The Astros lose the option if Paredes finishes top 10 in MVP voting, which he is not expected to do. Club Option Accepted.

PETER LAMBERT (5.069): $5,370,000 ($3.87M raise)

The Case: Lambert signed a minor league contract after returning to the United States from Asia this offseason with a $1.5M Major League rate. Lambert made the team and had a phenomenal season, posting an 8-10 record across 29 starts and 155.2 IP with a 3.82 ERA.

Zack Littell (2024, $3.87M raise) and Jordan Montgomery (2021, $3.87M raise) are nearly identical statistical comparisons. Littell also went 8-10 while throwing 156.1 IP with a 3.63 ERA, while Montgomery made 30 starts totaling 157.1 IP with a 3.83 ERA.

There is no reason Lambert should not join this group at the exact same $3.87M raise, bringing his total salary to $5.37M.

Tender Prediction: Lambert will be tendered a contract. Great success story. An interesting caveat here is that typically when players come back from Asia, even on minor-league deals, they will have XX(B) clauses in their contract allowing them to become a free agent at the end of the contract regardless of service time.

Lambert does not appear to have that, which, in hindsight, is a big swing-and-miss by his agent, as he would have garnered significant free-agent interest. Dietrich Enns is an example of a player who comes to mind who had that clause on a minor-league deal. Tender.

JEREMY PEÑA (5.000): $12,425,000 ($2.95M raise)

The Case: Peña enters his third trip through arbitration from a $9.475M salary after totaling 483 PA with 22 HR, 56 RBI, 12 SB and a 124 wRC+ while missing around 45 days with injury.

Daulton Varsho (2025, $2.55M raise) provides the lower end of the range after totaling 271 PA with 20 HR, 55 RBI, 2 SB and a 122 wRC+. The two have nearly identical power, RBI and quality, but Peña has more than 200 additional PA along with the significant speed advantage, which should comfortably get him above Varsho’s raise.

Isaac Paredes (2025, $2.725M raise) provides the next comparison after totaling 438 PA with 20 HR, 53 RBI, 0 SB and a 128 wRC+. Paredes holds the slight quality advantage, but Peña has the bulk advantage along with slight power and RBI advantages and a significant speed advantage with 12 SB. Peña should get above Paredes’ $2.725M raise.

Josh Naylor (2023, $3.15M raise) provides the ceiling after totaling 495 PA with 17 HR, 97 RBI, 10 SB and a 127 wRC+. Peña nearly matches Naylor’s platform-year bulk while holding the power and slight speed advantages, but Naylor’s massive RBI advantage along with the slight quality advantage should keep Peña below his $3.15M raise.

Peña’s raise fits between Paredes and Naylor, and I project a $2.95M raise, bringing his total salary to $12.425M.

Tender Prediction: Peña will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

JAKE MEYERS (4.155): $3,950,000 ($400k raise)

The Case: Meyers spent more than 100 days on the IL or option and finished the season with only 153 PA, 3 HR, and a 67 wRC+.

There is not a clean, direct comparison because of the service-time break, but Austin Slater (2023, $800k raise) provides an upper reference. Meyers’ limited platform-year bulk and time away from the Major League roster should keep him well below Slater. I project a $400k raise from his previous $3.55M salary, bringing him to $3.95M.

Tender Prediction: Meyers is a DFA/non-tender candidate as he approaches five years of Major League service and struggled to stay in the Majors this season. Non-Tender.

HUNTER BROWN (4.035): $7,900,000 ($2.19M raise)

The Case: Brown is coming from one of the higher Arb-1 salaries ever and still threw 107.1 IP across 20 starts with a 3.19 ERA and 3.77 FIP despite a disappointing year from a health standpoint.

George Kirby (2025, $2.25M raise) and Robbie Ray (2018, $2.1M raise) provide the best range. Kirby entered from a $4.3M salary and received a $2.25M raise after making 23 starts and throwing 126 IP with a 4.21 ERA. Kirby has the bulk advantage with nearly 19 more IP and three more starts, while Brown has the significant ERA advantage. Kirby also entered from a salary $1.41M below Brown, which helps Brown stay close to his raise despite the bulk disadvantage.

Ray entered from a $3.95M salary and received a $2.1M raise after making 24 starts and throwing 123.2 IP with a 3.93 ERA and 4.31 FIP. Ray again holds the bulk advantage, but Brown has significant quality advantages with a 3.19 ERA and 3.77 FIP. Ray also entered from a salary $1.76M below Brown.

Brown’s platform-year bulk keeps him from matching Kirby’s $2.25M raise, but his quality and significantly higher starting salary should keep him above Ray’s $2.1M raise. I project Brown directly between the two at a $2.19M raise, bringing his total salary to $7.9M.

Tender Prediction: Brown will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

YAINER DIAZ (4.035): $6,150,000 ($1.65M raise)

The Case: Diaz totaled 361 PA with 14 HR and 45 RBI to the tune of a 115 wRC+ while spending around 40 days on the IL and providing slightly below-average defense. Carson Kelly (2021, $1.625M raise) is the best comparison with similar IL time and offensive production, posting 359 PA with 13 HR to a 104 wRC+.

The offensive similarities put Diaz right in this range and I project a slightly higher $1.65M raise, bringing his total salary to $6.15M.

Tender Prediction: Diaz will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

HAYDEN WESNESKI (3.170): $1,450,000 ($475k raise)

The Case: Wesneski made 11 starts and threw 61 IP with a 3.25 ERA and 6-2 record while spending more than 100 days on the IL, but finished the season strong and healthy.

Tylor Megill (2025, $525k raise) and Dustin May (2023, $460k raise) provide the best range with similar injury-heavy seasons. Megill made 14 starts and threw 68.1 IP with a 5-5 record, 3.95 ERA and 3.43 FIP. Megill has the slight bulk advantage, while Wesneski has the ERA and win advantages. May made 9 starts and threw 48 IP with a 4-1 record, 2.63 ERA and 3.23 FIP. Wesneski has the bulk advantage, while May has the quality advantage.

Wesneski’s additional bulk over May and strong, healthy finish should get him above May’s $460k raise, while his lower starting salary and bulk disadvantage to Megill keep him below $525k. I project a $475k raise, bringing his total salary to $1.45M.

Tender Prediction: Wesneski will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

NICK ALLEN (3.164): $1,750,000 ($350k raise)

The Case: Allen was used in a utility role and totaled 162 PA with 3 HR to the tune of a 103 wRC+.

Leury García (2018, $375k raise), Ehire Adrianza (2017, $400k raise) and Tommy La Stella (2018, $400k raise) provide the best historical range. Allen has the lowest platform-year bulk of this group, keeping him slightly below them despite similar offensive production.

Alex Call (2026, $400k proj. raise) is also a current-class comparison after 195 PA, 1 HR and a 91 wRC+, with Call’s healthy season giving him the slight advantage. I project Allen for a $350K raise, bringing his total salary to $1.75M.

Tender Prediction: Allen will be tendered a contract. Allen’s versatility is vital for the Astros. Tender.

BENNETT SOUSA (3.156): $1,150,000 ($240k raise)

The Case: Sousa made 35 appearances and threw 30.0 IP with 12 HLD and a 6.00 ERA while spending more than 100 days on the IL.

Trent Thornton (2022, $150k raise) provides the floor after throwing 46 IP with only 3 HLD, while José Quijada (2024, $235k raise) had less bulk and leverage with 19.1 IP and 7 HLD but significantly better quality with a 3.26 ERA. Jonathan Hernández (2023, $250k raise) is the closest comparison after throwing 31.2 IP with 10 HLD and a 5.40 ERA.

Sousa has the slight leverage advantages over Hernández, but Hernández entered from a higher previous salary. Sousa fits between Quijada and Hernández, and I project a $240k raise, bringing his total salary to $1.15M.

Tender Prediction: Sousa will be tendered a contract. He still has an option remaining, giving the Astros flexible bullpen options from the left side. Tender.

TAYLOR TRAMMELL (3.143): $1,600,000 ($700k raise)

The Case: Trammell totaled 289 PA with 8 HR to the tune of a 78 wRC+ while spending more than a month on the IL.

Christian Arroyo (2022, $800K raise) totaled 300 PA with 6 HR and a 102 wRC+ while also spending more than 20 days on the IL, but Arroyo’s quality advantage puts Trammell below him. I project a $700K raise, bringing his total salary to $1.6M.

Tender Prediction: I would DFA/non-tender Trammell. The Astros should be looking to upgrade at that position and they can always circle back around at a similar, possibly lesser salary in free agency, as I would not see him getting more than $2M from any team. Non-Tender.

RONEL BLANCO (3.100): $1,825,000

The Case: Blanco was off to a nice start in his career and on pace to make out well here in this market until a disastrous platform season in which he spent over 100 days on the IL and time on option, pitching 33.2 Major League IP to a 6.68 ERA. The career numbers on the field still look nice with 307.2 career IP to a 3.80 ERA, making 71 outings and 50 starts with 21 quality starts; however, he has spent over 500 days combined on option and the IL. He did end his platform season healthy and in the Majors.

Kyle Wright (2023, $1.8M salary) is the best comparison, as he spent well over 300 days in his career on the IL and option, pitching a total of 281.1 IP across 60 games and 51 starts with 23 quality starts to a 4.45 career ERA. Like Blanco, the platform year was a disaster, throwing only 31 IP to a 6.97 ERA, and Wright also ended the season healthy and on the roster.

Wright is a strong comparison and should land Blanco at a total salary of $1.825M.

Tender Prediction: Blanco will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.