Houston Astros Slugging Prospect Needs Improvement in One Key Area

The bloom is off the rose when it comes to Houston Astros outfield prospect Luis Baez — at least for now.

Recently, Baseball America, updated its Top 30 prospects list for each team recently. Baez was listed as one of the fallers in Houston’s Top 30, though he didn’t fall off the list completely. At one point the publication had him as the organization’s No. 2 prospect. Now, he’s No. 19.

What’s changed? Baseball America cited concerns about Baez’s hit tool, and it may not be that far off.

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The 21-year-old Dominican Republic native just returned to Double-A Corpus Christi this month. He wasn’t hurt. He was on the developmental list. In fact, Houston placed him there to start the season.

The developmental list is where players go to work on their game. It means something is off. It could be his swing or his fielding or some other aspect of his game. But the fact that Baez was there for two months means it was something significant.

His stats read like a player who is on an ascendant path. Last year he slashed .258/.301/.462 with 21 home runs and 67 RBI. Those were career highs across the board. He also had 25 doubles.

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But one number stood out — 130 strikeouts. With 431 at-bats, his strikeout rate was 30.1%. His strikeouts doubled from his 58 minor leagues games in 2023, but his walk rate didn’t change. He drew 33 walks in 214 at-bats in 2023 and 30 walks in 2024.

Clearly, the issue is plate discipline. On May 26, the Astros dropped him back into the system with the Florida Complex League Astros. On June 3, he was transferred back to Corpus Christi.

In six games, he’s slashed just .190/.320/.286 with three RBI. But his history suggests the bat will come around. The discipline is more important. In 21 at-bats he has nine strikeouts and four walks. It’s a small sample, but it’s a much better spread.

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Baez’s development could be vital to the Astros, who have taken some unique approaches to the outfield this year at the Major League level. They moved Jose Altuve, their long-time second baseman, to left field. They traded right fielder Kyle Tucker. They moved rookie Cam Smith from infield to right field. An injury to Chas McCormick led to Houston calling up their top outfield prospect, Jacob Melton.

The Astros showed what they thought of Baez as a player when they signed him to a $1.3 million bonus during the 2022 international signing period. Now, he needs to improve the plate discipline to get his shot at Triple-A and then the Majors.

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