
The Atlanta Braves are in the postseason and within striking distance of winning the National League East. Even after securing the latter, they're on a collision course to be one of the home teams for the Wild Card series.
Behold, the Game 1 and Game 2 starters for the Wild Card series. If they don't, it's because the Braves somehow get the bye to the League Division Series, and they're pitching the first two games of that series.
Sale is the ace of that staff, and the Braves are basing his next starts around him being fresh for the postseason. Mahle has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since he was acquired at the deadline. The Braves finally have a true No. 2 with him.
These are the guys who will pitch on three-days rest if they're needed to.
Pérez isn't quite at the same level of obviousness as Sale and Mahle, but nobody else is making as good a case to be the No. 3 starter right now. He may only not be as obvious because of the public's perception of the rotation. From a performance standpoint, Pérez is an obvious postseason starter.
Since the start of August, Pérez has a 2.28 ERA. When the Braves dropped two out of three against two potential postseason opponents, the Rays and Cubs, Pérez was the pitcher who picked up the lone win.
He finds a way. That's what a team needs come playoff time.
Holmes is going to be on the postseason roster no matter what. As the Braves look to get creative, he may even pitch out of the bullpen. He has that experience to do so. That being said, in an era where teams need a fourth playoff starter, he's the most likley one to get the nod.
Since the start of August, Holmes has a 2.56 ERA, with five scoreless outings, across five starts. He's delivered six innings five times as well. He's allowed more than two runs only twice. Take away his brutal start on Aug. 15, where he allowed six over 3 2/3, and his ERA shrinks to 1.50.
In that time, he's had strong performances against the Yankees, Phillies and Astros. The Braves would have every right to be confident in his ability to get a start in.
Would Bryce Elder be a strong possibility to start a postseason game if healthy? Absolutely. When he's dialed in, he'll give you one of the best starts this rotation can give, and he could have given the team innings in the postseason. The Braves would likely have trusted him to get a start.
He's progressing and reportedly could be ahead of schedule or on schedule for his recovery from a knee scope. However, we have to see if he's back in time. His time away could mean he's not as sharp or can't pitch as many innings. We'll have to see.
He's pitched Game 1 of the Wild Card series before. It was out of necessity, but he has. The odds are greater than zero, so I'm including Smith-Shawver.
If he's able to build off what he did in Chicago on Tuesday, five innings of two-run ball in relief, then he's more than an if-necessary arm. He has the raw stuff that the Braves will want him out there if he can effectively fill the strike zone.
López is out with another shoulder injury. If he's even able to come back and pitch in the postseason, he's probably a reliever. Even if healthy, the Braves would likely have had a thing or two go wrong that they have him start a postseason game.
There are times this season where I wouldn't have put him in this low of a tier, but Tuesday night secured this spot.
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