How Has Andrew Painter Re-Captured His Prospect Hype?

Notable Improvements in Overall Command

Command can be a difficult quality of a pitcher’s to quantify. However, some stats can help indicate the quantity and quality of strikes thrown. One of those quantity stats is Zone%, which is the number of pitches batters see inside the strike zone. Interestingly, Painter had a better Zone% in his initial MLB stint compared to now:

• First 12 MLB starts– 49.4 Zone%
• Since recall– 43.7 Zone%

But Zone% is a sweeping metric that covers all areas of the strike zone. Statcast measurements use attack zones, which are broken up into four categories, shown in further detail here. The two that best show a pitcher’s quality of strikes thrown are H-Zone% (Heart Zone%, pitches in the center of the zone) and S-Zone% (Shadow Zone%, pitches along the edges of the zone).

For Painter, this is where the most significant difference in strike quality is shown. Painter is away from the heart of the plate, throwing pitches that are tougher to barrel up.

• First 12 starts– 25.1 H-Zone%, 42.4 S-Zone%
• Since recall– 18.9 H-Zone%, 46.6 S-Zone%

The earlier-mentioned Zone% can still show strike quality. Z-Contact% measures how often batters can make contact on pitches seen in the overall zone. This stat is another that Painter has made big jumps in:

• First 12 starts- 86.9 Z-Contact%
• Since recall- 78.5 Z-Contact%

Painter’s reduction in zone contact helps to illustrate that he isn’t throwing as many easily hittable strikes now.

Painter Bounces Back Much Better

One area that Painter has struggled significantly this year is starting off the game. Painter has gotten hit hard in the first inning, which has led to him starting games at a disadvantage:

Painter (First inning stats)- 15 innings, 7.80 ERA, .283/.386/.517, four home runs, eight walks

His first-inning struggles kept him from going deeper into games. However, while more subjective, his confidence seems to have increased. As a result, Painter has been able to bounce back from rough first innings and still deliver strong outings. Looking at some of his outings, there are a couple of distinct outings before and after he returned that illustrate his improvements:

June 17– Painter gave up a two-run home run three batters into the game, throwing 23 pitches in the first. He couldn’t regain his confidence and fully spiraled in the second inning. He allowed a leadoff home run to Owen Cassie, then quickly picked up a strikeout. After this, five of the next six batters reached base, giving up three runs on four hits and a walk in that span. Painter would be removed from the game after this inning and was sent to Triple-A after the game ended.

July 31– This was Painter’s first game back in the majors. Painter would allow a double and a home run to the first two batters he faced. However, he dominated the rest of the way, allowing just one hit and no runs over the next five innings. Overall, he went six innings and allowed just two runs in the first, striking out six and earning a quality start.