The Arizona Diamondbacks went into the 2025 season sporting a franchise-record payroll for the second consecutive year.
According to various public estimates, that number was approximately $188 million, although the team maintained it was several million higher than that. For the sake of simplicity, this article will round off to $190 million as the starting point.
It's Important to note that number is different than the oft referenced "CBT" or competitive balance tax number.
The CBT number is always higher, as it takes the average annual of a deal, not the actual money being paid in a given year, as well as things like player benefits and money contributed to the MLB Competitive Balance Pool. The 2025 CBT number was $220 million.
However, in order to compare apples to apples, we use the actual numbers for that year, not the averages or other benefits, which are common to all teams.
The D-backs have made it clear on several occasions that they are cutting payroll in 2026. Team President, CEO, and General Partner Derrick Hall first floated that news in early August after the trade deadline.
What isn't clear is just how much that cut will be. Recently, principal owner and Managing General Partner Ken Kendrick seemed to indicate the cut would not be severe. Speaking with Arizona Sports' John Gambadoro and Dave Burns, Kendrick had the following to say:
"We're in a good position to have a very, very credible commitment financially to next season. Will the number be the same? It probably won't be, but I think it'll be a handsome number that will allow us to have a very, very competitive team.
"I wouldn't want us to back away from the focus on being in the postseason a year from now," Kendrick said.
Based on the comments from ownership it's reasonable to assume at least a $10 million cut, but probably not more than $20 million.
Thus, the D-backs estimated opening day payroll budget should end up somewhere between $170-180 million. That's if the number squares with the sentiment voiced by ownership above.
As of today, the Diamondbacks estimated commitment is roughly $143 million, broken out as per the chart below. That leaves the D-backs anywhere from $27 million to $37 million to utilize towards improving the roster. Any proposals for signing or trade need to work within those parameters.
Note that the arbitration number may reduce should the team decide to non-tender any of the 11 arbitration eligible players currently in the organization. Any rostered player that is non-tendered must be replaced by a minimum salary payer for $800,000.
So for example if a player with a $2 million estimate is non-tendered, the lowest-cost replacement would be $800K, resulting in a net savings of just $1.2 million.
The "other" 5 million includes estimates for injury replacement players throughout the season, which must be budgeted for, and also salary for 40-man roster players not on the MLB roster.
With only $27-37 million to spend during the offseason, clearly that is not enough to plug all the roster holes the team has via free agency. They need at least two starting pitchers and two high leverage relievers. They also need a right-hand hitting outfielder, a backup catcher and either a first base or DH option.
Even trades of prospects for controllable players with major league will eat into the available funds, depending on how much existing salary accompanies the incoming player.
Just for example, Joe Ryan of the Minnesota Twins is a possible trade target. The starting pitcher is entering his second year of arbitration and is estimated to earn $5.8 million in 2025 by MLB Trade Rumors.
If the Diamondbacks were to trade prospects for Ryan, then his $5.8 million salary would reduce the amount leftover to spend by that amount, leaving just $21-31 million for the rest of the offseason.
Such a trade would still be cheaper than bringing back Merrill Kelly for example, which will cost anywhere from $12-15 million in 2026.
Related Content: What is Merrill Kelly's Market Value to the Diamondbacks?
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