Tarik Skubal continues to hit milestones as the Detroit Tigers ace attempts to become the rare American League pitcher to win consecutive Cy Young awards.
The 2024 winner reached 200 strikeouts for the season in Detroit’s 1-0 win over the Houston Astros on Tuesday at Comerica Park. Skubal was out of the game before Gleyber Torres’ bases-loaded walk in the 10th inning scored the winning run. But the left-hander was excellent as usual. He allowed three hits, no runs and two walks in seven innings while he struck out 10.
In 25 starts he is 11-3 with a 2.32 ERA. He has 200 strikeouts on the season and became the first pitcher in the Majors to reach 200 strikeouts for the second straight season. He has also allowed 25 walks, allowed batters to hit .197 against him and he has a 0.87 WHIP. In some ways he's having a better year than his 2024 Cy Young campaign, during which he went 18-4, finished with a 2.39 ERA and struck out 228 hitters against 35 walks.
But how is he striking out so many hitters? A deep dive into his Baseball Savant data reveals that his formula is deceptively simple. In fact, it comes down to one thing that Skubal does better than most pitchers.
The data shows that he has five pitches, three of which he leans on more than most. He throws his changeup 31.8%, his four-seam fastball 28.3% and his sinker 24.8 percent. He dips into his slider 12.6% of the time and he's only thrown his curveball 56 times, or 2.5%, of the time.
His change-up averages 88.1 mph and tops out at 93.9 mph. That range is a bit fast for a changeup, but it aligns well with his four-seamer and his sinker. The four-seam fastball averages 97.5 mph and can hit 102.6 mph on the gun. The sinker averages 97.2 mph and tops out at 101.7 mph.
Skubal has a whiff rate of 32.8%, which is nearly eight percent above the league average of 24.9%. While his pitches certainly carry action coming out of the hand, they all have one thing in common, something that has nothing to do with the pitch. He is willing to challenge hitters, and that is displayed in how often he throws in the strike zone.
While he leans on his changeup more than any other pitch, it’s one of the few that doesn’t hit the strike zone at least 50% of the time. He only hits the zone with that pitch 44% of the time. But with changeups, depending on location, a pitcher is either trying to get a hitter to chase or disrupt their rhythm at the plate.
It's his four-seam fastball, his sinker and his slider where he truly challenges hitters. The four-seam fastball hits the strike zone 58% of the time, while his sinker hits the strike zone and incredible 66% of the time. With two of his best pitches, Skubal is daring hitters to catch up. And they're failing in the attempt.
The slider, which he only throws 12% of the time, similarly hits the zone with consistency. That page hits the strike zone 60% of the time. It also tops out at 94.1 mph and has an average of 89.8 mph.
Where some pitchers rely on deception to strike out hitters, Skubal relies on his stuff, uncanny location and an ability to challenge hitters in the strike zone. It could be a recipe that allows him to win a second straight Cy Young and help the Tigers make a deep run in the postseason.
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