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SARAH PHIPPS/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Is Nationals Star Prospect Eli Willits’ Audacious MLB Goal Realistic?

Originally posted on Washington Nationals on SI
By Matt Postins | Last updated Aug 21, 2025 8:00 AM ET

The day Eli Willits signed his $8.2 million signing bonus with the Washington Nationals, he made it clear that he doesn’t intent to spend a long time in the minor leagues.

“I set a goal to be in the big leagues by the time I’m 20, and that’s something I’m really excited to do,” he said. “Hopefully, I get out there and start playing well, and that can be something that I can accomplish in the next few years.”

Willits gets his first chance to march toward the Majors on Thursday evening when he plays his first pro game for Class-A Fredericksburg. It’s not unusual for a prep star to begin his career at the lowest rung of the minor league system. His play will dictate how quickly this year’s No. 1 overall pick rises.

How Realistic is Eli Willits’ Goal?

BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Willits is 17 years old. He reclassified to the Class of 2025 so he could start his pro career early. He doesn’t turn 18 years old until Dec. 9. He should have been a part of next year’s draft class. But the Fort Cobb-Broxton (Okla.) product — who played against No. 4 overall pick Ethan Holliday in high school baseball — will get a head start on his classmates.

He has spent the last month in Florida at the team’s complex in West Palm Beach. Fredericksburg has less than 20 games left, and its season ends on Sept. 7. It’s possible, depending upon how well he plays, that he could be promoted to High-A Wilmington, which also ends its season on Sept. 7.

Most franchises set a policy of allowing how a player performs to dictate how quickly they move through a system. For Willits to play in the Majors by age 20, he would have to move into position for an MLB call-up sometime in 2028. A look at the past few prep players that went No. 1 overall is informative.

Jackson Holliday was selected No. 1 overall by the Baltimore Orioles in 2022. The son of a former Major League player, like Willits, he played 20 minor league games in 2022, followed by 125 games in 2023 as he moved all the way to Triple-A. that 2023 season he slashed .323/.442/.499 with 12 home runs and 75 RBI. He made his MLB debut at 20 years, 128 days.

Royce Lewis was selected No. 1 overall by the Minnesota Twins in 2017. Lewis didn’t move as quickly as Holliday. He made his MLB debut at 22 years, 335 days in 2022, but has been a consistent contributor for the Twins since his debut.

Mickey Moniak was selected No. 1 overall by the Philadelphia Phillies in 2016. He also tracked slower than Holliday, but made his MLB debut at 22 years, 126 days in 2020. He was unable to stick with the Phillies and is now having a fine season with the Colorado Rockies.

Player development in baseball isn’t linear. For instance, Holliday struggled in his debut in 2024, was sent back to the minors for a few months and then returned in July. Now, he’s put together a productive first full season as a second baseman.

Willits’ goal is a significant one. If he accomplished it, that would indicated talent and potential on the level of a Holliday, making him a potential piece of the solution in making the Nationals contenders once again.