Is Shohei Ohtani Actually Struggling In 2026?

The Los Angeles Dodgers’ offense has been inconsistent this year, largely because the top of their lineup has failed to perform at their expected levels.

Kyle Tucker has been the most disappointing thus far, but Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernández, and Will Smith are all significantly below their career norms. In addition, Shohei Ohtani has yet to truly break out on offense.

The expectations for Ohtani can be unfair at times, but he’s also proven to be an other-worldly player capable of exceeding those extremely high expectations. That is why, even though he’s second among the Dodgers’ qualified hitters in OPS, to many fans it feels like he’s been in a terrible slump.

Ohtani did have a stretch for roughly a week where he wasn’t hitting much at all, but overall, his early-season performance is on par with where he normally is at this time.

Shohei Ohtani starts slow

Ohtani typically takes some time to truly get going in a season. His 143 wRC+ this year is comparable to his 151 career wRC+ in March and April. Although that’s still an elite mark, it falls short of the 177 wRC+ he’s posted over the previous three years.

But this season, he’s seen his power numbers drop. Ohtani has posted just a .491 slugging percentage and .218 isolated power, compared to the .559 slugging percentage and .267 ISO he has averaged in March and April throughout his career.

Ohtani’s average has also slightly dipped to .273 this year, compared to the .293 average for his career in the first month, but he has made up for that by posting the highest on-base percentage in March and April of his career at .406, compared to his career .369 mark.

The two-way star is also striking out at a similar clip. He’s gone down on strikes in 23.7% of his at-bats this season, compared to the 23.8% mark over his career in the first month, and down from 25.2% last season.

Historically, Ohtani has seen his offense start to take off in May. Last season, he posted a 210 wRC+ in May, but his best month tends to be June, where he owns a career 198 wRC+.

Ohtani’s power drop

As previously noted, Ohtani’s slugging numbers are down this season so far, but is it a real concern? The short answer is no.

Ohtani only has 12 extra-base hits (six home runs, six doubles) this season, compared to the 14 he had last year in four fewer plate appearances. However, the data suggests more are on the way.

Ohtani still grades out around the top of players in expected slugging, average exit velocity, barrel rate hard-hit rate and launch angle sweet-spot percentage. His batted ball profile is similar to where he’s normally at in his career, albeit with a slightly higher ground ball rate, which is one of the reasons for the slugging drop thus far.

But the biggest issue for Ohtani is his pitch selection.

Ohtani is chasing at a 31.4% rate, compared to his career 27.8% mark, and he’s also made contact on 60% of the pitches he chases, compared to the 49.2% he was at last year and 55.6% over his career.

It’s hard to drive a ball outside the strike zone, so swinging at more balls and making contact with them more often is a poor combination. In addition, his in-zone swing percentage also sits at just 59.8%, a near 10% drop from his normal rate.

So Ohtani is swinging at more balls, taking more strikes, and making more contact on the pitches outside the zone that he does swing at. That’s a good way to decrease slugging and overall offensive production, but it’s also correctable.

It should be of little concern that Ohtani’s approach is the reason for his struggles. He has been prone to these kinds of slumps, like every hitter is, but it becomes more pronounced given his lofty expectations.

The timing also doesn’t favor Ohtani. A poor week in July is less noticeable than one to start the season.

Is pitching affecting Ohtani?

The other concern with Ohtani is that resuming a full-time pitcher role could cut into his offensive production. The Dodgers have been understanding of that and have worked to make sure he’s rested by giving him some days off from hitting when he pitches.

It wouldn’t be surprising if there were some drop-off in his offense compared to the previous two seasons, when pitching was on the back burner. But how much of an impact it has is unknown.

“So there’s got to be some cut into the bandwidth, production on the offensive side,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said. “That’s just common sense. So how it translates to how he’s been swinging the bat in the last week, how much of that is the pitching? I don’t have an answer for that. But that’s to be understood that there’s some kind of cut into production given how much he’s pitching.”

Ohtani has been in a two-way role full-time before and still produced elite results, but his best offensive seasons came when he either wasn’t pitching or had a minimal pitching role.

Things should trend up with his slugging as he starts to take a better approach at the plate, but how much drop-off there is in his offensive numbers remains to be seen. Still, the Dodgers are going to bet on the player, and it would be wise for you to do the same.

“I think he’s a very smart player,” Roberts said. “Obviously, we know the talent, and I do think that there were some adjustments within at-bats. So he certainly deserves more leash and more opportunity than essentially anyone.”

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