Is the White Sox's season already lost?

The White Sox’s catastrophic start to the season has all but eliminated the team’s playoff  hopes before the first month of the schedule has even concluded. The South Siders sit at 7-19 with a -58 run differential. FanGraphs has already dropped their projected playoff odds to 4.8%. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA is even more bearish, at 3.6%.

Unsurprisingly, general manager Rick Hahn and executive vice president Kenny Williams have come under fire for the calamitous beginnings of the 2023 season, but the team’s struggles date even further back than that. The Sox dropped eight in a row last September to fall from three games out of the division lead to 11 back and a .500 finish. Hahn was candid in discussing his struggles with the team’s beat Thursday, via Steve Greenberg of the Chicago Sun-Times.

“I think that makes it clear that my job is potentially on the line,” Hahn said of the team’s awful start to the season. The 11-year GM emphasized that the team’s struggles “sure as heck isn’t on [manager Pedro Grifol] and his coaching staff” and repeatedly said of the team’s struggles: “Put it on me.”

It has indeed been a brutal start for the Sox in just about every sense. Their collective .231/.289/.373 batting line translates to an 84 wRC+ that sits 26th in the majors. The Sox are 23rd in team batting average, 28th in on-base percentage, 22nd in slugging percentage, 28th in walk rate (6.6%) and 16th in strikeout rate (23.7%). They’ve dealt with their share of injuries, but that’s increasingly looking more like an undesirable feature of this team’s core rather than a bug. The Sox’s depth behind the core group — or rather, the lack thereof — was far from unforeseeable. I wrote about that topic back in late January in a piece for MLBTR Front Office subscribers. It’s been a perennial issue for the team.

So too has the lack of defense. Hahn, Williams & Co. sought to remedy that issue in 2023 by making the tough decision to move on from clubhouse leader Jose Abreu, opening first base for Andrew Vaughn and paving a path to improved outfield defense with Andrew Benintendi in left, Luis Robert Jr. in center and top prospect Oscar Colas in right field. The Sox's overall defense is better in 2023 but is still far from a strength; they’re sitting at a combined -10 defensive runs saved, -2 outs above average and, most charitably, a scratch grade from ultimate zone rating. Their 12 team errors tie them for 12th in Major League Baseball. Colas, meanwhile, has looked overmatched at the plate so far.

Chicago’s pitching staff — specifically the rotation — was supposed to be its great strength, but things simply haven’t panned out in that regard. Every member of the rotation, including last year’s Cy Young runner-up Dylan Cease, has an ERA north of 4.00. Veteran Lance Lynn and once-vaunted prospect Michael Kopech are both north of 7.00. The options beyond the top quintet of Cease, Lynn, Kopech, Lucas Giolito and free-agent signee Mike Clevinger aren’t much more encouraging; the Sox’s sixth starter, Davis Martin, posted a 4.83 ERA in 63 1/3 MLB innings last year. He’s out to a nice start through three turns in Triple-A this season but also turned in a 6.11 ERA in 13 starts there in 2022.

In the bullpen, the Sox have baseball’s second-worst ERA at 6.06, leading only the hapless Athletics. There was no foreseeable way to plan for Liam Hendriks’ absence, and the Aussie closer’s announcement that he’s cancer-free and eyeing a return to the mound sooner than later is one of the game’s great feel-good stories at the moment.

Even with Hendriks sidelined, the Chicago relief corps should be vastly better than this, however, particularly given the weighty contracts to which they’ve signed free agents like Kendall Graveman (three years, $24M) and Joe Kelly (two years, $17M). The Sox are spending more than $42M on their bullpen in 2023, and while Hendriks accounts for $14M of that (and has been every bit as excellent as expected when healthy), that still leaves more than $28M in salary committed to a group that has delivered the second-worst bottom line results in all of baseball.

It’s a dismal look top-to-bottom at the moment, and it calls into question the team’s direction at the trade deadline at a stunningly early juncture of the season. The White Sox would need to play at a 74-62 pace (.544) just to finish the season at .500. If we were to set the hypothetical bar for a playoff berth at 90 wins, they’d need to go 83-53 (.610) from here on out to reach that threshold. Put another way, they’d need to play at the rough equivalent of an 88-win pace (over a 162-game season) just to get to .500 and at the equivalent of a 99-win pace to reach 90 wins.

Based on everything we’ve seen thus far, that’s decidedly unlikely. The overwhelming likelihood is that the Sox will enter the summer as a sub-.500 club with minimal playoff hopes. Even if they were able to claw back into within arm’s reach of the AL Central or a wild-card chase, the team’s farm system is once again fairly barren, and owner Jerry Reinsdorf hasn’t appeared keen on taking payroll much beyond its current levels.

The greater likelihood would be one of selling off some veteran pieces, though that comes with its own questions. It seems doubtful Reinsdorf would want to commit to a full rebuild so soon after emerging from a yearslong effort to do just that. The Sox could trade off players who are only controlled through the end of the 2023 season or perhaps through the end of the 2024 campaign, but outside of Tim Anderson and Lucas Giolito, they don’t have many appealing players in that group. And, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic rightly pointed out, trading away only impending free agents would need to signal that the team feels it can compete in 2024, which would probably require the type of bump in payroll that Reinsdorf resisted heading into the current season — when he actually lowered payroll on the heels of a disappointing 2022 season.

There’s still a possible avenue to better days with that approach, however. The team’s commitments to Lynn, Grandal, Kelly, Clevinger, Diekman, Elvis Andrus and Hanser Alberto are all up at season’s end. That’s about $65M in combined salary. Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez, notably, are free agents as well. The Sox currently have about $109M committed to next year’s club, per Roster Resource, with a tiny arbitration class (Cease, Kopech, Vaughn, Garrett Crochet).

The Sox could have as much as $60M to work with this coming offseason before they get back to their current Opening Day payroll levels. That’s quite a bit to work with, but they’ll also need to add multiple starting pitchers, try to fix the bullpen and address multiple spots in a deficient lineup and defense — and do so with greater success than their last waves of free-agent investments (e.g. Grandal, Graveman, Kelly, Dallas Keuchel).

Ultimately, there’s no easy path to salvaging the 2023 season, and the long-term questions are every bit as confounding, if not more so. Hahn surely knows he’s on the hottest of seats, but even with a change atop the baseball operations pyramid, the team will be facing bigger-picture questions. Will Reinsdorf push payroll to previously unseen levels in an effort to spend his way out of the current mess? Would he green-light another rebuild at 87 years old and only a couple of years removed from a four-year step back from competitive baseball? The White Sox are in one of the least enviable spots in all of baseball right now, and the questions will only grow louder if the team can’t quickly begin to correct course.