It’s a new season, but the same issue plague the Blue Jays in 2025

The Toronto Blue Jays need something to change, and fast.

After back-to-back blown games against the Los Angeles Angels, the Jays have a 16-20 record, tied for the second-worst in the American League East. While they aren’t out of the race for the division yet, just four and a half games back of the New York Yankees, things are starting to quickly unravel.

On April 18, the Jays had a 12-8 record, a game behind the Yankees for top spot in the division. Since April 19, the Jays are 4-12 with the 2025 season looking strikingly similar to the 2024 season. On April 20, 2024, the Jays had a 12-9 record, eventually getting it to 13-11 before falling apart like they’ve done this season. In the end, they finished with a 74-88 record, well out of the playoffs.

The Jays have played 36 games this season, there is no longer the excuse of “it’s early”. Sure, teams have had an awful first half in the past and went on to have a successful postseason campaign, but the same issues that are plaguing the Jays in 2025 are the issues they had last season.

The offence

Last season, the Blue Jays hit 156 home runs, the fifth-fewest in the league. Through 36 games this season, their 25 home runs are the fewest in the league. That is incredibly concerning, as they’ve gone from the most home runs in 2021, to the seventh-most in 2022, to the 16th-most in 2023, to the fifth-fewest last season. It’s continuing a downward trend with no signs of stopping, despite signing Anthony Santander in free agency.

After the blown lead in Game 2 of the 2022 Wild Card Series, the Jays shifted to a small-ball approach, which is all fine in dandy (it’s not, please hit home runs). Last season, they had a 105 wRC+ with runners in scoring position, along with a .256 batting average and a .393 slugging percentage.

This season, their 75 wRC+ with runners in scoring position is the fourth-lowest in the league. While their .239 batting average ranks 20th in the league, their .310 slugging percentage with runners in scoring position is the third-lowest in the league with RISP. In total, they’ve hit 12 doubles and four home runs with runners on second or third.

In 2024, the team had an average wRC+ of 101, tied for the 12th-lowest in the league. It wasn’t that bad, at least when compared to this season’s collective 92 wRC+, which is the ninth-lowest in the league. Again, you can see a trend downward in each of the seasons.

The 2021 season saw the Jays post a 113 wRC+, the sixth-highest in the league. Despite Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hitting fewer home runs and Marcus Semien departing for the Texas Rangers, their wRC+ surprisingly jumped to 119, seventh in the league. With the focus shifting to small ball for the 2023 season, the Jays’ wRC+ plummeted to 102, tied for the 14th-highest in the league.

Although it’s sad to see what my favourite team has become in terms of being unable to hit for power and play small ball successfully, the 2025 Jays’ issues run far deeper than their bats.

The starters

A big reason why the Blue Jays made the postseason in 2023 was because of their starters. That season, they had a 3.85 ERA and a 4.09 FIP, good enough for third and seventh, respectively. They had the third-highest K% of 24.4%, walking 7.8% of batters, which sat middle of the pack.

Last season, starting pitching was the one area of the game where the Jays were fine. Their 3.95 ERA was the 14th-best in the league, while their 4.15 FIP sat 19th-best (or 12th-worst); it’s best described as “middle of the pack”. Paired with average batting, all would’ve had to go right for the Jays to make the playoffs, but more on that in the next section.

Through 36 games in 2025, their starts have the fifth-worst ERA of 4.44, while their 4.82 FIP is the sixth-worst in the league. On the day the Jays were 12-8, April 18th, they sat with a 3.20 ERA and a 4.29 FIP, the fourth-best and 12th-worst, respectively.

The strikeout rate was solid, as they had a 24.2 K%, tied for eighth-best in the league, with a 7.2 BB%, ninth-best in the league. If you’re wondering about the difference between the FIP and ERA, it’s because of the number of home runs they allowed, as the Jays had a 1.52 HR/9 on April 18th. Since April 19th, the Jays’ starters have a 6.32 ERA, third-worst in the league in that period, and a 5.63 FIP, second-worst in that period.

With Max Scherzer suffering a thumb injury after his first start, the Jays have been looking for a fifth starter all season long. Easton Lucas did well in his first two starts but has struggled in his next two and was optioned. They recently signed José Ureña, who was okay in his only start so far. Their other option they’ve used this season saw Yariel Rodríguez start the game, with Eric Lauer piggybacking off of him and pitching the bulk of the innings. That’s not a sustainable method for a team looking to contend.

Of course, their other starters have struggled since they started losing, admittedly, their pitchers struggling is why they’re losing. Since April 19th, Bowden Francis has a 10.50 ERA in three starts, Kevin Gausman has a 6.14 ERA in three starts, and Chris Bassitt has a 6.06 ERA in three starts. Only José Berríos has a sub-4.00 ERA in that time, as he has a 2.63 ERA in four starts.

When their starters pitch well, the Jays win. When they don’t, well, here comes the bullpen.

The bullpen

Unlike in 2021, when the Jays outhit their bullpen issues and nearly made the playoffs, they weren’t able to do so in 2024. Last season, the Jays had an average offence (with a lack of power) and average starters, along with the worst bullpen in baseball.

Their 4.82 ERA was the second worst in the league, but where they really struggled was their FIP, as it sat at 4.84, a league worst. The reason it was so high was because of an insane 1.46 HR/9 innings; they just couldn’t keep the ball in the park, as they gave up a league-high 92 home runs.

What’s confounding about this is that the Jays’ bullpen in 2023 was one of the best in baseball. Their 3.68 ERA in 2023 was the eighth-best, while their 3.91 FIP was the sixth-best in the league. On top of that, they had a 26 K%, which was tied for second-best in the league. The pillars of the bullpen were Jordan Romano, Tim Mayza, and Erik Swanson.

Unfortunately for the 2024 Blue Jays, Swanson and Romano started the season off injured and struggled mightily once returning, with Mayza struggling from the start of the season until he was designated for assignment. The Jays eventually non-tendered Romano this past off-season while Swanson pitched well after being recalled in July, when it was far too late for the Jays to make a push for the postseason.

On top of adding power, which the Jays did on paper, the biggest area of need this off-season was fixing the bullpen. The Jays did just that, signing closer Jeff Hoffman, bringing back Yimi García, and acquiring Nick Sandlin in a trade.

In turn, the Jays’ bullpen is better than last year’s, as they have a 4.33 ERA and a 3.91 FIP, giving up 17 home runs. Still, it’s not the 2023 levels of good, as they ranked 11th highest in ERA, 15th highest in FIP, and have given up the seventh most home runs with 17.

Just like the starting pitching, there’s a caveat. Their bullpen started incredibly well, posting a 3.33 ERA and a 3.58 FIP, with a 27.5 K% and an 8.6 BB% from the start of the season until April 18th. Their ERA ranked as the ninth-best, their FIP as the 13th-best, and their strikeout rate as the fourth-best.

Since April 19th, their ERA of 5.35 is the fifth-worst, while their 4.25 FIP is the 12th-highest in the league. They’re still striking 27.6% of batters, tied for the second-most in that span, but have walked 10.3% of batters, the 10th-highest BB% in that span. On April 18th, the Jays’ bullpen had a 0.93 HR/9, 15th in the league, but that has jumped to 1.34 since April 19th, the fifth-worst since that date.

Again, it has been injuries that have hurt the Jays. Swanson and Ryan Burr haven’t pitched this season, while Sandlin has been on the IL since Apr. 20, a big loss for the team. Jacob Barnes and Richard Lovelady made the Opening Day roster, but were quickly designated for assignment, with Mason Fluharty stepping up as the second left-handed pitcher out of the bullpen.

García and Hoffman had great starts to their season, but have floundered in their last two outings. Chad Green has been okay, and Brendon Little has been a nice surprise, but year two of Yariel Rodríguez has been rough. They’re showing signs of fatigue, and while the bullpen hasn’t been as bad as last season, it’s something worth monitoring in the coming weeks. If the bullpen continues to struggle, the Jays may finish with an even worse record than last season, given their regression in offence and starting pitchers.

Things may turn around, but the season is already 22.2% of the way through, and the 2025 Jays look strikingly similar to last season.