Jazz Chisholm's Self-Projections Are Sky High But Reasonable

If there's one person who understands how good they are, it's probably Chisholm himself. According to him, he has lofty expectations of himself coming into the 2026 season.

"Ask Cap (Aaron Judge)," Chisholm said, according to The Athletic's Chris Kirschner. "Real life. Let's just be realistic. I got all the tools for it. I have the speed, the power, the plate discipline, the eye at the plate, defense. I got everything to accumulate a 10-WAR season."

A 10 WAR Year?

A 10-WAR season seems ridiculous at first. Chisholm's teammate, Judge, makes posting seasons with over 10 WAR look easy, but he's an anomaly. Few in the sport have been able to do so. Shohei Ohtani has never eclipsed that mark by Fangraphs' metric, and only did it once by Baseball Reference's WAR. In 2023, he had exactly 10 WAR.

While that may seem like Chisholm is overstepping his own projections, it's fair to consider the dynamic blend of speed, power, and defense that he has. Were it not for a stint on the IL, it isn't so wild to believe that Chisholm could have had a 40/40 season in 2025.

If Chisholm is healthy this year, the sky is the limit for him. He has yet to have a season with over 150 games, so for him to reach his lofty goal, the first thing he'll need to do is stay on the field. That aspect of his game requires luck, though, and it could be out of Chisholm's hands.

The Defensive Factor

Defense would also have to be a factor. Last season, Chisholm had 8 Outs Above Average and 2 Defensive Runs Saved at second. His value was knocked down a few pegs because of his time at third.

Chisholm had a -3 OAA and -4 DRS at third last season. In 2026, if everything goes to plan, he'll primarily be a second baseman. He was already an 88th percentile defender in 2025, according to Baseball Savant, so there's a world where he's even better than that. This notion alone would push him toward his goal of being a 10-WAR player.

"Think about it like this, if I didn't throw away any of those nine balls (at second base), my defensive rating doesn't drop," Chisholm said of his defense to The Athletic. "It goes up because the errors cause it to drop. I'm getting to most balls better than any other guy at second base. It's just really focusing more."

Better Than 30/30

Then, of course, the biggest factor for his quest to 10 WAR is the offense. A 30/30 was tremendous, but he still only managed a 4.4 WAR, according to Fangraphs. Chisholm would have to be even better than that, and by a lot, too.

Last season Chisholm hit .242/.332/.481 with a 126 wRC+. Those are respectable marks, but for him to truly reach his goal, he'd have to juice those numbers up and be a top-five hitter by average, on base, slugging, and wRC+.

That seems far-fetched, but last season, only three hitters in the American League had an OPS over .900. That was Aaron Judge, because who else would lead this list, George Springer, and Cal Raleigh. Chisholm would have to be right up there with those guys.

To play devil's advocate for Chisholm, nobody could have predicted the type of season that Raleigh had. Raleigh himself may never have another like it. If he can do it, why not Chisholm, who is a player that has yet to scratch the surface of his own potential because of injury?

Granted, even with Raleigh's 60 homers, not even he eclipsed a 10 WAR. Of course, in baseball, stranger things have happened.

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