Kevin Ginkel's Command, Mound Poise Defy Poor Results

The Arizona Diamondbacks, with the playoffs approaching, will need big outs from their high-leverage relievers, especially from their (arguably) best arm from the 2023 postseason run, right-hander Kevin Ginkel.

Ginkel's 2023 was a dominant one, as he pitched to a brilliant 2.48 ERA, seeming like a constant lock to shut down an inning, no matter how daunting the matchups may have been.

2024 has been a different story for the righty, although his surface numbers don't fully tell the story of how effective he's been.

He's pitched to a 3.29 ERA in 2024, backed by an even more solid 2.90 FIP. But it's felt recently as if Arizona's bullpen stalwart had taken a dive headfirst into a slump, along with some of their other crucial arms.

That is exemplified in his 9.82 ERA for the month of September. Ginkel has had multiple instances of multi-run innings, and he's allowed 13 hits in just 7.1 innings of work for the month.

Despite these results, he's continued to get the ball in critical situations. And when his peripherals are examined, one might notice an odd trend.

Through August 31, at which point Ginkel sported a 2.51 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, his xBA (expected batting average), aligned nearly perfectly with the average against him. His .235 xBA in that window corroborated his actual .237 average against.

However, for his disastrous September, he's been hit at a massive .371 clip--but his xBA remained consistent at .236.

This means, in no uncertain terms, he's been the victim of some cheap, often unlucky hits, taking the brunt end of an unforgiving BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play). For the 2024 season, his BABIP is .330, the highest it's been since he pitched just 16 innings in 2020.

For the month of September, that unlucky BABIP catapults to a massive .476.

But despite some of these ugly numbers, Ginkel has actually seen some of his best command, along with a strong confidence and emotional stability throughout 2024.

Diamondbacks ON SI's Jack Sommers caught up with Ginkel ahead of Friday night's game, and the reliever reflected on his strange statistical season.

“I think last year I gave up way fewer hits, which was nice, I think it just made innings a little bit smoother. This year I’ve kind of had to grind a little bit, and get out of situations where I’ve got runners on base and less than two outs," Ginkel said.

But it's not just his situational ability. Ginkel is controlling the ball well, and walking the least batters of his career. For 2024, he's sporting a BB/9 of 1.98, over a full walk lower than his previous career-low of 3.17 in a season.

Ginkel said he's proud of that number, signifying his ability to continue to attack batters, despite some poor luck and bad results. Even though balls are going for hits that perhaps shouldn't be, he's still throwing more strikes than ever, and isn't backing down from hitters.

"It’s just showing that I’m not afraid to attack guys. If it results in a hit or two here and there, whatever. But that’s a stat I’m kind of proud of, where I’m like ‘okay, I’ve done my job… if a walk happens, so what,’ but I’ve been able to keep that number down this year, and I’m pretty proud of that,” Ginkel said. 

"I think those are the [outings] that really help make me tougher in a sense," said Ginkel, "if something happens, and I’ve got to find a way to get out of it, and Torey [Lovullo] leaves the ball in my hands, I feel confident in my ability to get guys out.

"So for me it’s just, I think, having the same mindset like I’ve had all year, and just being positive and just being in control of my emotions,” the reliever said.

Manager Torey Lovullo backed up his pitcher's sentiment. He, too, knows that despite some poor results, the confidence, zone command and emotional maturity are at an all-time high.

“I know that sometimes you might have a bad week at work, and you could do everything right and it turns out wrong. I think we’ve been in that space with him a few times this year," Lovullo said.

“It’s, for me, putting the ball on the plate, being aggressive with your stuff and trusting it. When I see that, I have a lot of confidence in you. I’m aware of those numbers, and I think at times a young Kevin Ginkel would get sidetracked by that, but he hasn’t let that affect him, he’s still pounding the zone, and he’s getting big outs for us," the manager continued.

Eventually, the results will have to even out closer to the mean, and his actual numbers should, in theory, begin to align more closely with his expected stats.

But regardless, Ginkel has been throwing the ball well, and he hasn't let his bad luck wear him down, either. The Diamondbacks are going to need every ounce of stability (and some good luck) to make another postseason run as the season wanes, and Ginkel is certainly due.

“Kevin deserves that opportunity, he’s going to continue to get the baseball," said Lovullo, "I believe in his ability to collect big outs, for sure.”