Key Stat Reveals Why Astros Sat Christian Walker for Pivotal Mariners Game

The Astros signed Jose Abreu during the offseason in 2022, hoping that the former AL MVP would solve their first base problem for a few years. However, a .625 OPS and 73 OPS+ would earn him his release just a year and a half into the deal.

So, before the 2025 season, they went and did the exact same thing. Houston signed veteran first baseman Christian Walker to a three year deal worth $60 million. He had been one of the premier power hitting first basemen in the league since 2022 and had won three Gold Gloves in a row to boot.

Walker was going to be younger than Abreu going into his first season at 34 years old, so the hope was the power would still play. For the most part, it has. Walker is slugging .401, which is down from his .468 mark last season, but he's hit 23 home runs and 23 doubles.

Yet, the production as a whole isn't pretty. His OPS is .696 and he's hit at a below league average rate with a 91 OPS+. After being worth 11.3 bWAR over the past three seasons, he is sitting at -0.2 going into Satuday's action.

His strikeout rate is up four percent from 2024 and his walk rate is down four percent. The 34-year-old went from a 90th percentile barrel rate and 86th percentile hard-hit rate to 69th and 79th, respectively, according to Baseball Savant.

Walker has regressed in a lot of ways, none more important than the factors that caused him to be sat for Satuday's game.

"Yeah, I expect to play every day. But, better for the team (to) get another lefty in there. I've been grinding at home. It is what is is," Walker said in an article from The Athletic's Chandler Rome (subscription required).

Walker's splits this season aren't dramatic. He's been better against right handed pitching with a .700 OPS compared to a .677 OPS against lefties. Despite that, he was sat because of his performance at home this year, and that's the split that makes a real difference and could determine if the Astros look to move on from him this offseason.

In 72 games at home, the first baseman is slashing .202/.281/.345 with a .626 OPS and just eight home runs. On the road, the average is up to .257 with a .753 OPS and 15 home runs. In a game that mattered so as much as Saturday's against the Mariners does, manager Joe Espada didn't feel comfortable sticking him out there.

This doesn't bode well for Walker's future with the Astros. As a player being paid $20 million a year, the expectations are high for a position that's been suffering. Walker just hasn't been able to produce at even a league average level.

He's getting older and the power has taken a pretty sharp decline, as has his defense. Luckily, he was an elite defender with 13 Outs Above Average last year, so even though he's only at three for this season, it's still in the 82nd percentile.

"Walker has been hot. He's been out first baseman. He'll continue to be out first baseman," Espada said.

This quote would seemingly clear the 34-year-old, but his usage and status with the team is not something a manager would discuss during the season, especially when they are at such a critical spot.

Is it possible that Walker is shopped in the offseason? Sure, this is the team that gave up quickly on Jose Abreu and seemingly don't want to deal with a problem at the position anymore. It would be difficult, and as Rome posits, they would have to eat a lot of the remaining $40 million on his deal.

There isn't exactly a clear replacement already in the system, either.

"All things considered where I started, I'm proud of the season and how it's gone... But I'm still proud of what I threw out there," Walker went on to say.

Maybe Saturday's lineup card is pointing toward more of a platoon split with Walker, as his power is still there. Although it's already looking like another miss by Houston in free agency. Time will tell and that time probably won't be until the offseason, but Walker is now going to have to play his best ball moving forward.