Sep 2, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. (7) walks back to the dugout after being called out on strikes in the first inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter Aiken-Imagn Images Peter Aiken-Imagn Images

Latest Royals Playoff Prediction From ESPN Is Too Good To Be True

Originally posted on Kansas City Royals on SI
By Jackson Roberts | Last updated Sep 3, 2025 2:00 PM ET

Is the Kansas City Royals' playoff dream on its last legs?

After a 5-1 loss to the Los Angeles Angels on Tuesday, the Royals sat 2 1/2 games back of the Seattle Mariners for the third American League wild card spot. They were also a game back of the Texas Rangers, who have been surging over the last two weeks.

Fangraphs currently gives the Royals just a 9.1% chance to make the postseason. But ESPN columnist David Schoenfield apparently thinks Kansas City can beat the odds.

Schoenfield predicts Royals overtake Mariners

On Tuesday, Schoenfield predicted that the Royals would catch the Mariners for that third and final wild card spot. His prediction was penned before the results of Tuesday's games, but the Mariners lost as well, so the margin remained the same.

"Crazy? Not so," wrote Schoenfield. "(The Royals have) played great in July and August. Vinnie Pasquantino is mashing home runs, Bobby Witt Jr. is red hot and the players they added at the trade deadline have chipped in to make this a good offense. The Royals also have a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way. But which team can they catch?

"It might hinge on a three-game series at home against Seattle in mid-September. The Mariners have a recent history of falling just short of the postseason -- including last year, when the Royals clinched a wild-card spot with 86 wins and the Mariners won 85 (the Mariners blew an 8-0 lead against Kansas City in June, which loomed large at the end of the season)."

The Mariners have a slightly easier schedule the rest of the way, according to Fangraphs, with a .494 opponent winning percentage compared to the Royals' .500 mark. And the Royals may be 23-18 since the All-Star break, but they're only 7-8 against current playoff teams in that time frame.

So while optimism is always welcome, it's just hard to believe the Royals can catch the Mariners when they still have series remaining against the Philadelphia Phillies and Toronto Blue Jays on the docket. They may very well need to sweep Seattle to make it happen.

More MLB: Royals' Carter Jensen Dishes On Joining Hometown Team Amid Playoff Race

This article first appeared on Kansas City Royals on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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