Los Angeles Angels Arbitration Projections and Tender Decisions

Once a team comes up with its projected salary for all of its arbitration-eligible players, it will begin a tender analysis to simply determine: “Are we comfortable guaranteeing Player X this much money?”

If the answer is yes, the player will be tendered a contract prior to the mid-November Tender Deadline. Tendering a contract means the team offers the player a contract for the following season while retaining his rights, with the player’s salary either agreed to later or determined through the arbitration process.

If the answer is no, the player will be DFA’d/non-tendered. Once a player is non-tendered, he is removed from the 40-man roster and becomes a free agent immediately.

The other option a team has is to pre-tender a player, which is a contract agreed to before the Tender Deadline that takes the player out of the arbitration process. This is typically done when a team wants to keep a player, but only at a slightly discounted rate, or when it is a very obvious, typically small raise case that teams like to get out of the way.

This article dives into the market analysis of each case, showing the reasoning behind my leaguewide salary projections, before predicting the tender decision for each player.

All opinions in this article are my own, there was no non-public information used in my analysis.

Los Angeles Angels Roster Outlook

40-MAN + 60-DAY IL (NON-FA): 40 (not including Stephenson)

PENDING FA + MUTUAL OPTIONS: 3

OPTIONS: Stephenson (Club, $2.5M)

R5 PROJECTED ADDITIONS: 3; Nelson Rada, Raudi Rodriguez, Camden Minacci

REID DETMERS (4.159): $6,700,000 ($4.075M raise)

The Case: Detmers had an incredible platform season, making 32 starts and throwing a career-high 185 IP with a 3.36 ERA and 3.01 FIP after coming from a relatively low $2.625M previous salary.

Casey Mize (2025, $3.81M raise) provides a clear floor with only 149 IP and a 3.87 ERA while Zack Wheeler (2018, $4.075M raise) is the closest statistical comparison after throwing 182.1 IP with a 3.31 ERA. Wheeler also came from a low salary, receiving $1.9M in the year prior.

Wheeler did not receive any Cy Young votes in his platform season, while Detmers’ season could put him in position to receive down-ballot Cy Young votes.

If Detmers does receive votes, his representatives can argue that distinction should put his raise above Wheeler’s rather than Wheeler acting as a ceiling. For now, I project Detmers matches Wheeler’s $4.075M raise, bringing his total salary to $6.7M.

Tender Prediction: Detmers will be tendered a contract. There were reports of a nearly finalized trade at the deadline, which makes you think he will be on the market, but with a new ownership group coming in since then I wonder if they may explore an extension instead. I expect something big to happen with Detmers this offseason and would be surprised if he is simply pitching on his arbitration deal in 2027. Tender.

JOSE SIRI (4.150): $2,875,000 ($1.275M raise)

The Case: Siri signed a minor league deal with a $1.6M Major League base and totaled 251 PA with 10 HR, 33 RBI, 9 SB and a 97 wRC+.

Austin Slater (2022, $1.35M raise) totaled 325 PA with 7 HR, 34 RBI, 12 SB and a 124 wRC+. His bulk and quality advantages act as a firm ceiling in a raise case. Edmundo Sosa (2024, $1.3M raise) totaled 274 PA with 7 HR, 31 RBI, 7 SB and a 101 wRC+, making him the closer statistical comparison.

Leody Taveras (2026, $1.5M proj. raise) is also a useful current-class comparison after 482 PA with 8 HR, 56 RBI, 11 SB and an 80 wRC+ from a $2M out-of-system Major League salary; Taveras has the substantial bulk advantage which should keep his raise higher. Siri belongs slightly below Sosa’s raise due to slight bulk and quality disadvantages compared to Sosa. I project a $1.275M raise to Siri’s 2026 Major League base, bringing his total projected salary to $2.875M.

Tender Prediction: I expect the Angels to pursue a pre-tender deal with Siri to try to get below his projected arbitration salary and not have to deal with the curveballs an out-of-system case can bring. That being said, I expect him to be with the Angels in 2027. Pre-Tender.

JOSH LOWE (4.075): $3,575,000 ($975k raise)

The Case: Lowe totaled 343 PA with 12 HR, 29 RBI, 10 SB and a 76 wRC+ while also spending more than a month on optional assignment. Ramón Urías (2024, $1.05M raise) provides the best comparison after totaling 301 PA with 11 HR, 37 RBI, 1 SB and a 114 wRC+. Lowe has the power and speed advantages while Urías has the better wRC+. Lowe’s month-plus optional assignment shoukd keep him below Urías’ raise. I project a $975k raise, bringing Lowe to $3.575M.

Tender Prediction: Lowe should be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

TYLER HEINEMAN (4.066): $1,378,000 ($140k raise)

The Case: Heineman entered from a $1.238M salary and totaled 200 PA with a 25 wRC+. Reese McGuire (2023, $275K raise) provides the best comparison with 206 PA’s and a 79 wRC+. Heineman’s significantly weaker offensive quality keeps him well below McGuire’s raise, nearly cutting it in half. I project a $140k raise, bringing him to $1.378M.

Tender Prediction: Heineman is a DFA/non-tender candidate because he, or a catcher of similar quality, can likely be brought back on a minor-league deal. Non-Tender.

TAYLER SAUCEDO (4.043): $1,300,000 ($300k raise)

The Case: Saucedo signed a minor league deal with a $1M Major League base and made 28 appearances with 11 holds and a sub-3.00 ERA. Ryan Thompson (2023, $350K raise) provides the best comparison. Richard Lovelady (2026, $350K proj. raise) is a useful current-class comparison also coming from out-of-market, though Saucedo has less bulk than both. I project Saucedo slightly below both at a $300K raise, resulting in a $1.3M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Saucedo will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

ZACH NETO (3.170): $10,300,000 ($6.15M raise)

The Case: Neto totaled 704 PA with 27 HR, 77 RBI, 24 SB and a 116 wRC+. Jeremy Peña (2025, $5.375M raise). Neto has significant bulk and counting-stat advantages despite Peña’s 136 wRC+, All-Star/MVP advantages. Pena also finished the season on the IL, hurting his value.

CJ Abrams (2026, proj. $6.4M raise) provides the firm ceiling in the current class with similar bulk and a 30+ HR and 30+ SB season. Neto’s raise should also finish just below Brice Turang (2026, $6.2M proj. raise) in the current class with his 100 RBI season with a 128 wRC+ in 680 PA’s. Additionally, Turang is likely to have the Gold Glove and MVP-vote advantages. Neto belongs at the bottom of this current class group but stays close behind. I project a $6.15M raise, bringing Neto to $10.3M.

Tender Prediction: Neto will be tendered a contract. This is a very volatile case, and the timing of when cases settle will dictate where in the market it falls. For example, if Abrams or Turang settles first, Neto will receive a raise just below them. But if Neto settles first, it will mostly be guided by the historical reference with Peña, and the raise may fall closer to him, which could then drag Abrams and Turang down with him. He is another trade-or-extension candidate for the Angels, and it feels like a decision on his long-term future should be made this offseason. Tender.

GRAYSON RODRIGUEZ (3.129): $1,950,000

The Case: Rodriguez just missed Super Two eligibility last year, and I am not sure the extra year did much to increase his Arb-1 value after pitching to a 6.02 ERA in just 98.2 platform-year innings. He enters arbitration with 337.1 career IP, a 4.67 career ERA across 63 starts and 21 quality starts, while also having missed his entire PY-1 with injury.

Tylor Megill (2024, $1.975M salary) is a very strong comparison after entering arbitration with 341.1 career IP, a 4.56 career ERA across 67 starts and 14 quality starts. Megill also had a limited platform year with only 78 IP, but pitched to a much better 4.04 ERA and did not carry the same major injury history after Rodriguez missed an entire season.

Megill should stay ahead in my opinion because of the better platform-year quality and cleaner recent health record, but the overall career statistical similarities keep Rodriguez very close. I project Rodriguez at a $1.95M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Rodriguez will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

BEN JOYCE (3.075): $950,000

The Case: Joyce enters his first arbitration trip with 9 career saves and 16 holds across 64.1 career IP with a 3.36 ERA. His platform season was limited by injury, making only 16 appearances and throwing 15.1 IP with 2 HLD, 5 SV and a 4.11 ERA before ending the season on the IL.

Brock Stewart (2024, $880k salary) provides a useful limited-workload comparison after making 16 appearances and throwing 15.2 IP in his platform season. Joyce has the clear leverage advantage with 5 saves and also owns the stronger career leverage resume. Gabe Speier (2024, $845K salary) provides another lower comparison with more platform bulk but no saves.

Joyce’s limited workload keeps him near the bottom of the Arb-1 market, but the saves and high-leverage usage give him enough separation from this group. I project a $950K total salary.

Tender Prediction: Joyce should be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

NOLAN SCHANUEL (3.045): $3,250,000

The Case: Schanuel enters arbitration as a 2x qualifier who did not qualify in his platform year. He enters with 1,749 career PA and a 109 wRC+, giving him the strongest career offensive quality in this low-power 2x-qualifier group.

Josh Smith (2025, $3.225M salary) and Bryson Stott (2024, $3.2M salary) establish the historical market for low-power 2x qualifiers with similar career bulk, but Schanuel’s 109 career wRC+ gives him a clear quality advantage over Smith’s 97 and Stott’s 91.

Sal Frelick (2026, $3.15M proj. salary) is the closest current-class comparison because both are 2x qualifiers who failed to qualify in the platform year, but Schanuel’s better sustained offensive performance should keep him comfortably ahead. Also in the current class, Xavier Edwards (2026, $3.175M proj. salary) remains close because of similar bulk and a 104 career wRC+, while Otto Lopez (2026, $3.45M proj. salary) moves above this range because of his platform-year All-Star selection and qualifying-season advantage.

I project Schanuel at a $3.25M total salary, just above the Smith/Stott lookback group and Frelick/Edwards in the current class.

Tender Prediction: Schanuel will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

OSWALD PERAZA (3.014): $1,450,000

The Case: Peraza enters arbitration with 370 PA’s, 7 HR’s, 25 RBI’s, 12 SB and a 74 wRC+ in his platform year, while his career line sits at 894 PA’s, 16 HR’s, 62 RBI’s, 27 SB and a 62 wRC+.

Jonny DeLuca (2026, $1.85M proj. salary) and Dane Myers (2026, $1.7M proj. salary) are the best current-class comparisons with very similar platform-year and career bulk as well as similar career power, but both hold significant quality advantages over Peraza, with wRC+ marks of 92 and 89, respectively, which should put Peraza well below this group.

Ernie Clement (2024, $1.97M salary) and Romy Gonzalez (2025, $1.6M salary) provide the best historical range from a bulk and power standpoint, but Peraza’s poor offensive quality drops him below that group as well.

His similar career totals and 370 PA’s of platform-year bulk should still keep him within reach of Gonzalez, who had 341 PY PA and 796 in career. I project a $1.45M total salary.

Tender Prediction: I would expect the Angels to pursue a pre-tender deal below Peraza’s projected arbitration value. They have leverage to do this as I am not sure Peraza would receive a guaranteed deal at the projection on the open market. Pre-Tender.

SAM BACHMAN (2.149): $1,150,000

The Case: Bachman enters arbitration as a Super Two after throwing 48.2 IP across 44 appearances with 17 HLD, 1 SV and a 4.81 ERA in his platform season. He has 21 career holds and 2 saves across 85.1 career IP. His combination of high PY SV+HLD and low career IP is very unique in this market.

Garrett Cleavinger (2024, $1.2M salary) and Sam Hentges (2023, $1.1625M salary) provide the range of pitchers with similar PY and career SV+HLD totals. Cleavinger recorded all 21 of his career SV+HLD in his platform year, while Hentges recorded 15 of his 24 career SV+HLD in the platform year. Bachman’s 17 platform-year holds are the most of the group, but both comparisons hold significant career-bulk advantages, forcing Bachman to fall slightly below them. I project a $1.15M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Bachman should be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.