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Luck Isn't a Factor in Yankees' Offensive Woes
New York Yankees left fielder Heliot Ramos is not finding much success at the plate early in his tenure in the Bronx. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Luck Isn't a Factor in Yankees' Offensive Woes

Originally posted on New York Yankees on SI
By Joseph Randazzo  |  Last updated Aug 16, 2026 10:34 AM ET
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The standings are not favorable to the New York Yankees right now. The Tampa Bay Rays are 5.5 games ahead of them in first place, and the Boston Red Sox, even with the way they have cooled off, are just two back. There isn't much time left to catch up or put some space between them and Boston. A turnaround would need to be immediate.

Manager Aaron Boone mentioned that his guys are facing some "tough luck" this week and they are hitting balls on the screws, but at this point in the season, it's hard to look at what's happening under the hood when what matters most at the end of August and heading into the postseason are results.

When a team fails to score more than a run, and their aces are playing out of their mind, nobody wants to hear that what's happening isn't totally out of the hitters' hands when they're this bad.

The only thing that matters is wins at this point in the game. Talks of expected numbers are fine in May, but we're closer to the end of the season than the beginning. Everything else feels like excuses at this point.

Hard hit ground balls are not considered bad luck

Of course, while Boone would like to mention that some misfortune has befallen his group, the expected numbers don't quite play out that way. Take Heliot Ramos, for instance.

Since the trade, Ramos has a .235 expected batting average, .367 expected slugging, and a .309 xwOBA. Those don't exactly scream successful marks, and his hard-hit outs aren't totally a result of bad luck.

In many ways, it's the position DJ LeMahieu found himself in in 2025. He had a 91.7 MPH average exit velocity and a 51.6% hard-hit rate, yet the expected numbers were bad that season. He had a .295 xwOBA, a .245 xBA, and .338 xSLG. Hitting the ball hard doesn't mean a player will produce at some point. Other things need to be in play as well. Hard-hit ground balls are still ground balls, which are easy outs.

IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

That's essentially where Ramos is right now. He currently has a 57.1% groundball rate since being traded over. His 26.8% fly ball rate this season has plummeted to 14.3%.

He's just hitting balls on the ground, and it doesn't matter how hard you hit those. They tend to find gloves these days. Infielders are too good, and teams have their defensive positioning down to a science, even after the shift was banned.

Hence why, over the years, when Giancarlo Stanton would hit a screamer down the line against the Tampa Bay Rays, it's like third baseman Joey Wendle was always in the right spot. It wasn't luck, though, and Wendle didn't have Dr. Strange seeing into the future, telling him exactly where Stanton's liner was headed. Teams just have advanced scouting reports on everybody. The only thing the science of defense can't stop is hitting balls over outfielders' heads.

Also, for all the talk about bad luck, it wouldn't be the worst thing for Ramos to help himself. Running out one of his many ground balls could be the first step in turning his fortunes around.

The Yankees just need to hit

It's hard to say what can fix the Yankees right now, aside from Cody Bellinger, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton returning. Guys like Ben Rice, Jazz Chisholm Jr., and Trent Grisham need to produce. Of the three staples of the lineup, only Grisham has come around, while Rice and Chisholm have floundered.

There is a lot of talk about Ramos, but the Yankees didn't bring him in to carry the offense. That's Rice's job, and since Judge went out, Rice has struggled.

According to the Rolling xwOBA chart on Baseball Savant, Rice's production has especially cratered over the last month, and that isn't bad luck. On July 29th, he had a .437 xwOBA, which was the high-water mark of his season. Of his most recent 100 plate appearances, it's at .311.

There may not be a quick remedy for the Yankees. Boone mentioned flipping the lineup around, but he already did that once this week by having Spencer Jones hit third. The only fix is for hitters who have been bad to turn it around. It's really the only thing that matters here.

That is easier said than done, though. Chisholm is down to a 90 wRC+ in 450 plate appearances this year, and that might be the player that he is.

A time machine is another option to think about. Pluck Judge and Bellinger from healthier timelines and plop them into the lineup.

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This article first appeared on New York Yankees on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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