Manage, Not Gamble, on the Long Haul

In a recent game. Reds’ rookie, Jacob Hurtubise, made a mistake on the base paths. He was on second base with a man on third base and one out. The third baseman was off the line. A ground ball was hit to the third baseman’s left. Hurtubise took off for third rather than hold at second. His break toward third allowed the fielder to tag Hurtubise and have time to throw the runner out at first, costing the team a tying run.

“When a player makes a mistake, if you confront him at the dugout steps, you're pissed off and the player has emotions and the outcome won’t be good,” Francona said.

Francona's explanation to Hurtubise was, if you make it to third, then what? He was in scoring position with two outs at second base, already.

“You address it so it doesn’t happen again. This game is played by human beings. We shouldn’t forget that,” Francona explained.

The point was made about managing risks. The risk was not worth the reward.

Who knows, the fielder could have dropped the ball on the tag, and all hands would have been safe, or Hurtubise could have evaded the tag and made it to third safely.

Sometimes, gambles pay off. Sometimes playing it safe can cost you a game, but over 162 games, the game is more predictable. Any individual moment is not. A pitcher has a .500 batting average against the batter has a .300 batting average; we have an idea what will happen, but don’t know.

Throw in the unknown. The batter has a sore wrist from diving for a ball in the field. That changes the odds.

You play a team at the right time or the wrong time.

Last season, the Reds swept the New York Yankees in Yankee Stadium. The Yankees were 54-33 going into the series. After the sweep, the Reds came home to face the Detroit Tigers with a 40-48 record and were swept.

How did that happen?

For one thing, it turned out that Detroit wasn’t as bad as its record showed. The Tigers finished the regular season at 86-76 and in a playoff spot.

Going into the game with Colorado in Coors Field, Francona sits at 1962-1685 or .538.

Francona has made a successful career by knowing the odds and people and managing risks.