Marlins To Sign Chris Paddack

Paddack’s return season was again hampered by arm issues, most notably a forearm strain that shut him down shortly after the All-Star Break. He avoided the injured list last year for the first time since 2020 but simply didn’t pitch well. Paddack had an ERA pushing 5.00 over 21 starts when the Twins traded him to the Tigers at the deadline. He was hit hard in three of his first five outings in Detroit and moved to the bullpen in early September. Paddack returned to the rotation for two starts to close the regular season and was scratched from the Tigers’ playoff rosters.

The 30-year-old finished the season with a 5.35 earned run average across 33 outings. He logged a career-high 158 innings but allowed 94 earned runs, the most in the American League. Paddack’s formerly above-average strikeout rates dropped to a disappointing 16.7% as his swinging strike percentage fell below 10% for the first time. He has always struggled with the home run ball and hasn’t had the swing-and-miss stuff to make up for that in recent years.

Paddack’s four-seam fastball averaged 93.7 mph last season. That’s down a touch from its peak in 2021 but a near match for the velocity he showed during his career-best rookie year. The bigger issue is that opponents teed off on the changeup — a .263 average and .491 slugging mark — that was his best pitch early in his career. Paddack has never had a good breaking ball or an overpowering heater, so he’ll need the changeup to be much more effective if he’s to recapture mid-rotation form.

The righty has always had excellent control. He has never walked even 6% of opponents in a season. Paddack continues to attack the strike zone but the stuff was far too hittable last season. Pitching his home games at loanDepot Park could help mitigate some of the home run issues. Paddack enters camp with a strong chance to open the year as Clayton McCullough’s fifth starter.

Eury Pérez and Sandy Alcantara are locked into the top two spots. Max Meyer and Braxton Garrett are each entering camp healthy, though both pitchers are coming back from surgeries. Janson Junk, Ryan Gusto and Adam Mazur are depth options on the 40-man roster, while top prospects Thomas White and Robby Snelling loom in the upper minors. Snelling pitched very well over 11 Triple-A starts last year and could break camp. White only made two starts at the top minor league level and seems destined to begin the season in the minors.

Those pitchers all have a higher ceiling, but everyone in the back-end mix has questions about their injury history or lack of MLB experience. That’s also the case for Paddack, but it’s an affordable move to add another starter after the Cabrera and Weathers trades. It’s a similar move to last year’s $3.5MM signing of Cal Quantrill shortly before camps opened.

The signing brings Miami’s payroll estimate to $72MM, as calculated by RosterResource. That’s a little above last year’s $65MM Opening Day mark, although Miami ranked dead last in spending last season. They’re again projected for the lowest team payroll in the majors, although they’re probably ahead of the Guardians in actual 2026 salary given the deferrals on Cleveland’s recent José Ramírez extension.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported the agreement and $4MM salary plus $500K in bonuses. Craig Mish of SportsGrid confirmed it was a one-year major league deal.