
There’s a real possibility Tarik Skubal ends up with the Padres when his time in Detroit inevitably ends.
He and the Tigers are still in the midst of their historic $13 million standoff as February arbitration hearings approach. If they don’t come to an agreement before then, the Tigers will likely move their superstar.
It’s hard to imagine they don’t at this point. Breaking the MLB record for the biggest gap between proposed salaries - $19 million offered by Detroit vs. $32 million from Skubal - isn’t a great way to build a relationship with a franchise face entering free agency the following season.
After going 5-for-5 this offseason, A.J. Preller has continued his perfect record of retaining arbitration players. Skubal wouldn’t have to worry about getting lowballed in San Diego.
Plus, the Padres have had a notably quiet offseason. Given that they’ve established themselves as one of MLB’s biggest spenders, the lack of major deals this winter could signal that Preller is waiting for a bigger fish.
Let’s dissect a mock trade from my rotation breakdown a few days ago.
Send
Nick Pivetta ($20.5 million)
Ramon Laureano ($6.5 million)
Kruz Schoolcraft (No. 2 prospect)
Miguel Mendez (No. 5 prospect)
Receive
Tarik Skubal (either $19 million or $32 million)
Obviously, the package for Skubal would be even more ludicrous if he were under team control. Unfortunately for Detroit - and for their potential return - Skubal’s only attractive quality is that he’s the best pitcher in baseball.
It may sound hyperbolic, but it’s true. Being the best arm in MLB makes him extremely desirable, but outside of on-field dominance, he’s a disgruntled, expensive player who would require a team to surrender assets and shell out money for a hefty extension.
That’s a steep price for any team, but it’s one San Diego should be willing to pay. The fit is incredible. Not only is the front office equipped to handle his arbitration contract, but the rotation is in desperate need of some left-handed juice.
Assuming they lose Pivetta in the deal, the staff behind Skubal would still feature three right-handers in Michael King, Joe Musgrove and Randy Vasquez. Pivetta was an excellent ace for the Padres, but having the same-handed pitcher in every rotation spot makes San Diego easy to game-plan against.
For the Tigers, this deal provides a full-on pitching “starter pack” to reset the rotation while maintaining some ability to compete in 2026. Detroit wouldn’t want losing Skubal to force a complete rebuild, and getting Pivetta back gives the rotation promise next season.
Mendez is a right-handed, MLB-ready prospect who would bring youth and controllability to an already deep group of arms in Detroit.
Schoolcraft, the prize of the deal, is an 18-year-old, highly ranked prospect with freak attributes. The 6-foot-8 lefty would bolster the farm system and give Detroit an exciting project. Despite being in A-ball, his 60-grade fastball already reaches 98 mph.
Finally, there’s Laureano. This part would hurt - and probably make anyone, including the front office, think twice before pulling the trigger for a player on an expiring deal.
He was one of the best outfielders in baseball last season and finished with a career-high 138 wRC+. Adding him and Pivetta in a weak AL Central could put the Tigers right back in the postseason.
Still, the price is worth it for San Diego. Sending Pivetta and Laureano is a sell-high move. Pivetta’s minuscule .235 BABIP and 3.95 xERA compared to a 2.87 ERA points toward potential regression next season.
The same logic applies to Laureano, who benefited from an unsustainable .331 BABIP in 2025.
Losing Schoolcraft and Mendez would allow the Padres to hold onto their lone Top 100 prospect in Ethan Salas. A hypothetical Skubal extension would also lock San Diego in as a pitching powerhouse for years with the bullpen keeping all of its firepower intact.
No lowballing from Preller, no blown leads with Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon and Jason Adam in relief, and a mouthwatering catching duo to look forward to in Salas and Skubal.
Make it happen, Padres.
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