Maybe It’s Been José Alvarado All Along

Alvarado, 29, is the longest-tenured member of the Phillies bullpen. He led the team in saves (13) and save opportunities (16) last year.

The southpaw was also lights-out in spring training, pitching nine scoreless innings. He gave up three walks and three hits while striking out twenty. Twenty!

So, why was Alvarado something of a forgotten man in the closer conversation?

After a brief minor league demotion in 2022 to reset his pitch mix (and his confidence), Alvarado became one of the nastiest relievers in the league from mid-June through the end of the season. He was every bit as dominant the following year.

Altogether, from his promotion in 2022 through the end of 2023, he pitched to a 1.70 ERA in 79.1 innings of work, striking out 128 batters and giving up just four home runs.

However, the version of Alvarado we saw in 2024 wasn’t nearly as overpowering. His 4.09 ERA was shockingly mediocre, and none of his underlying numbers (3.97 xERA, 3.80 FIP) were much more promising.

From the trade deadline through the end of the season, Thomson rarely deployed Alvarado in high-leverage spots. The lefty only made one appearance in the playoffs.

It’s not that he wasn’t a useful reliever, but his strikeout rate was down, his groundball rate was down, and he looked more like a middle-inning lefty specialist than a shutdown closer.

Following that performance, I think a lot of Phillies fans overlooked Alvarado entering 2025. Fortunately, Rob Thomson did not.

Alvarado has appeared in five games this season. He entered four of them in the ninth. The only time he didn’t enter in the ninth was when he came in to face the heart of the Rockies’ order in the eighth on March 31.

Across those five appearances, Alvarado has earned a win, a hold, and two saves. He has struck out 10 of the 21 batters he has faced. He has only walked two.

Needless to say, five innings is a tiny sample, but this ain’t just luck. In fact, Alvarado’s .444 BABIP and 25.0% infield hit percentage suggest his defense has actually let him down a little bit. All of his underlying numbers are just as impressive as his 1.80 ERA. He has a 1.99 xERA, a 1.16 xFIP, a 1.36 SIERA, and a ridiculous 0.27 FIP.

I don’t mean to say that Alvarado will maintain those eye-popping numbers, but the point is that he has earned his success.

It’s not hard to see why.

According to Baseball Savant, Alvarado has averaged 94.2 mph on his cutter this season. He has averaged 99.7 mph on his sinker.

Thanks to Alvarado’s excellent extension, the “perceived velocity” of those pitches is even faster. His sinker has averaged triple digits (100.6 mph), while his cutter is averaging 95.0 mph on the dot.

No pitcher (min. 5 sinkers) has a higher perceived velocity on his sinker this year. Only two have a higher perceived velocity on their cutters.

Meanwhile, compared to his numbers from last March/April, Alvarado has added an extra 1.9 mph of perceived velocity on his sinker and 1.0 mph on his cutter.

Even more encouraging? Those perceived velo readings are very similar to Alvarado’s numbers from the first month of 2023. That year, Alvarado pitched to a 1.74 ERA and 2.73 xERA. The year after, when his velocity was down, he pitched to a 4.09 ERA and 3.97 xERA. Which of those pitchers would you rather have?

On the flip side, Alvarado stayed healthy in 2024, tossing 61.2 innings over 66 games, his highest numbers in both categories since 2018. In 2023, he took two trips to the IL (11 weeks total) with elbow troubles.

Throwing harder isn’t without its risks, and the Phillies will have to keep a close eye on Alvarado’s arm health. Still, if he keeps throwing like this and stays on the field, Alvarado can be one of the best relievers the game has to offer.

We’ve seen it before. Hopefully, we’ll see it again.

The 2025 season is young. At this point, every reaction is an overreaction. I know that. Even so, I can’t help but think that Philadelphia’s bullpen already looks like less of a strength than it did on Opening Day.

Romano has struggled badly. (Like, really badly.) Meanwhile, Strahm and Kerkering have impressive surface-level numbers, but both seem to be throwing with diminished stuff.

Thankfully, Alvarado has stepped up. So far, he looks significantly better than expected.

Nine games into the Phillies’ 2025 season, Alvarado has been the best and the most important reliever on this team. Maybe we were fools to think it wasn’t José Alvarado all along.