Miami Marlins Arbitration Projections and Tender Decisions

Once a team comes up with its projected salary for all of its arbitration-eligible players, it will begin a tender analysis to simply determine: “Are we comfortable guaranteeing Player X this much money?”

If the answer is yes, the player will be tendered a contract prior to the mid-November Tender Deadline. Tendering a contract means the team offers the player a contract for the following season while retaining his rights, with the player’s salary either agreed to later or determined through the arbitration process.

If the answer is no, the player will be DFA’d/non-tendered. Once a player is non-tendered, he is removed from the 40-man roster and becomes a free agent immediately.

The other option a team has is to pre-tender a player, which is a contract agreed to before the Tender Deadline that takes the player out of the arbitration process. This is typically done when a team wants to keep a player, but only at a slightly discounted rate, or when it is a very obvious, typically small raise case that teams like to get out of the way.

This article dives into the market analysis of each case, showing the reasoning behind my leaguewide salary projections, before predicting the tender decision for each player.

All opinions in this article are my own, there was no non-public information used in my analysis.

Miami Marlins Roster Outlook

40-MAN + 60-DAY IL (NON-FA): 43

PENDING FA + MUTUAL OPTIONS: 1

OPTIONS: Alcantara (Club, $21.0M)

R5 PROJECTED ADDITIONS: 3; Karson Milbrandt, Jonathan Long, Brayden Taylor

ANTHONY BENDER (5.153): $3,750,000 ($940k raise)

The Case: Bender made 35 appearances with 8 holds and 2 saves while pitching to solid quality before ending the season on the IL with a shin stress fracture that required surgery.

Joe Jiménez (2022, $975k raise) provides the best statistical comparison after making 62 appearances and throwing 56.2 IP with 11 holds and 2 saves to a 3.49 ERA. Jiménez has the clear platform-year bulk advantage with the same save total and slightly more holds, while Bender entered from a higher previous salary.

Bender’s higher starting compensation offsets some of the workload disadvantage, but the surgery and IL finish keep him slightly below Jiménez’s placement. I project a $940k raise, bringing Bender to $3.75M.

Tender Prediction: Bender will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

ANDREW NARDI (4.053): $900,000 ($100k raise)

The Case: Nardi ended the season on the IL, spending over 120 days on the IL total after pitching 22.2 IP to a 5.16 ERA.

Jordan Hicks (2021, $75k raise) is the only comparison from a similar Arb-1 salary with 100+ IL days, ending the season on the IL and posting similar ERA quality who was tendered a contract.

Nardi did throw double the IP and recorded more holds, making Hicks the floor, but Nardi will not separate too far from him. I project a $100k raise resulting in a $900k total salary.

Tender Prediction: Nardi is a strong DFA/non-tender candidate because of the surgery timeline. Non-Tender.

MAX MEYER (3.166): $2,530,000 ($1.55M raise)

The Case: Meyer made 20 starts and threw 111 IP with a 2.68 ERA, 9-1 record and 7 quality starts before ending the season on the IL.

Casey Mize (2024, $1.51M raise) is the best comparison after making 20 starts and throwing 102.1 IP with 6 quality starts and a 2-6 record from an $830K previous salary.

Meyer has clear advantages in quality and win-loss record, while Mize finished the season healthy. I project Meyer slightly above Mize at a $1.55M raise, bringing him to $2.53M.

Tender Prediction: Meyer will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

CALVIN FAUCHER (3.156): $3,000,000 ($1.2M raise)

The Case: Faucher was used mostly in a setup role with occasional closer usage. He accumulated 68.1 IP, pitching to a 3.56 ERA with 3 SV and 19 HLD.

Joel Payamps (2024, $1.345M raise) provides a clear ceiling coming from a similar Arb-1 salary with a better ERA and more saves and holds.

A.J. Puk (2024, $1.15M raise) is the best comparison coming from the exact same Arb-1 salary. Puk holds a quality advantage but Faucher recorded a few more holds with the same amount of saves, while Puk also spent some time on the IL. Because of the IL time and Faucher’s holds advantage, Faucher should slightly top Puk with a $1.2M raise resulting in a $3M total salary.

The Marlins will point to Jason Adam (2023, $925k raise), who came from just $25k below Faucher’s Arb-1 salary and posted significantly more saves with quality advantages. Adam finished the season on the IL which suppressed his raise, but he gives the club an argument to keep Faucher closer to the $1M range.

Tender Prediction: Faucher will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

EURY PEREZ (3.113): $2,700,000

The Case: Perez enters arbitration with an injury-filled career, but at a high level of quality when healthy, and he stayed mostly healthy throughout his platform year. Perez has amassed 345.2 career IP, including a career-high 159 IP in his platform year, pitching to a 3.80 career ERA and a 3.91 platform-year ERA across 69 games with 22 quality starts.

Steven Matz (2018, $2.625M salary) is an older comparison but a very strong one, entering arbitration with slightly more career bulk at 388.2 IP, including 154 IP in his platform year, with a 3.98 career ERA and a 3.97 platform-year ERA. Matz also dealt with several IL stints, further strengthening the comparison to Perez.

MacKenzie Gore (2024, $2.89M salary) provides the more recent data point after entering arbitration with more career bulk at 372.2 IP and 166.1 platform-year IP, while also avoiding the significant IL history that both Perez and Matz carried. Perez should fall closer to Matz than Gore because of the injury history and lighter career bulk, but his quality and strong platform-year workload should still push him above Matz. I project Perez at a $2.7M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Perez will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

OTTO LOPEZ (3.109): $3,450,000

The Case: Lopez enters arbitration as a 2x qualifier coming off a qualifying platform year and an All-Star selection, with 1,726 career PA, 32 HR and a 100 wRC+ while playing a premium defensive position at shortstop.

Josh Smith (2025, $3.225M salary) and Bryson Stott (2024, $3.2M salary) provide the historical foundation for this hit-over-power market with similar career bulk, but Lopez’s platform-year All-Star selection gives him a meaningful awards separator that neither lookback comp carried.

Sal Frelick (2026, $3.15M proj. salary), Nolan Schanuel (2026, $3.25M proj. salary) and Xavier Edwards (2026, $3.175M proj. salary) are the relevant current-class comps in the same low-power 2x-qualifier bucket, but Lopez’s combination of a qualifying platform year, shortstop value and All-Star selection pushes him clearly above that group.

Anthony Volpe (2025, $3.475M salary) provides the ceiling as a 3x qualifier, and Lopez should remain just behind him because Volpe’s additional qualifying season carries meaningful market value. I project Lopez at a $3.45M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Lopez will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing.

TYLER ZUBER (3.104): $825,000

The Case: Zuber is a first-time arbitration case after failing to qualify as a Super Two last offseason. He threw 39.2 IP across 44 appearances with 9 HLD, 1 SV and a 5.67 ERA in his platform year before finishing the season on the IL. His career numbers do not help much either, entering arbitration with a 6.04 ERA across 104.1 IP with 14 HLD and 1 SV while also accumulating significant option time, IL time and a DFA.

Wandy Peralta (2019, $805K salary) is a strong statistical floor after throwing the exact same 39.2 platform-year IP with a 5.67 ERA, but only 3 HLD and no saves. Zuber clearly has the leverage advantage, but the career quality and roster history prevent him from creating much separation.

Yohan Ramírez (2025, $825K salary) provides an even cleaner salary placement after throwing 33.1 IP with only 1 HLD and a 5.40 ERA. Zuber has more leverage production and platform bulk, but Ramírez finished healthy while Zuber ended the season on the IL.

Gabe Speier (2024, $845K salary) provides the celing with 7 platform holds but a substantially better career leverage résumé. I project an $825K total salary.

Tender Prediction: Zuber is a strong DFA/non-tender candidate as a low-leverage reliever with no options remaining who also ended the season with elbow issues. Non-Tender.

ESTEURY RUIZ (3.064): $1,850,000

The Case: Ruiz enters arbitration as an elite speed threat, amassing 111 career SB, including 34 in the platform season.

Jose Caballero (2025, $2.0M salary) is the only other recent comparison to show that level of speed, entering the market with 119 career SB. Caballero has a significant platform-year and career bulk advantage, though neither player has ever posted a qualifying season. Caballero had 18 career HR to Ruiz’s 14, leading to Caballero having a slight career wRC+ advantage, while Ruiz edged him out in platform-year wRC+.

Ruiz certainly falls behind Caballero. The Marlins may have an argument that he should be below current-class comp Nathan Lukes (2026, $1.7M proj. salary), but with such a unique player profile I think the Caballero comparison is stronger. I project Ruiz can attach to Caballero and get near him to earn a salary of $1.85M.

Tender Prediction: Ruiz will be tendered a contract. This will be a very interesting case because of his unique profile, and depending on how the current class shapes out it could force the case into a hearing. Tender.

XAVIER EDWARDS (3.034): $3,175,000

The Case: Edwards enters arbitration as a 2x qualifier coming off a qualifying platform year with 1,601 career PA and a 104 wRC+. His career bulk sits slightly below the rest of this low-power group, and his limited home-run production keeps his case from moving to the top of the market, but the quality of his offensive production keeps him firmly attached to it.

Josh Smith (2025, $3.225M salary) and Bryson Stott (2024, $3.2M salary) provide the strongest historical lookbacks as 2x qualifiers with similar overall career bulk. Edwards trails both in power and has slightly less bulk, but his 104 career wRC+ is strong enough to keep him close to their salary range.

Sal Frelick (2026, $3.15M proj. salary) is the closest current-class placement point, with Edwards’ better career offensive quality and qualifying platform year pushing him slightly ahead. Nolan Schanuel (2026, $3.25M proj. salary) stays above Edwards because of stronger career quality at a similar level of bulk, while Otto Lopez (2026, $3.45M proj. salary) separates through his All-Star platform year and stronger overall market case.

Edwards should remain just below the Smith/Stott historical range while landing slightly above Frelick, and I project a $3.175M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Edwards will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender,

VICTOR VODNIK (3.024): $1,500,000

The Case: Vodnik enters his first arbitration trip with 23 career SV and 19 HLD across 191.2 career IP. Unlike many players in this range, Vodnik has avoided optional assignment, but his platform season hurts his case after making 53 appearances and throwing 58.2 IP with 4 SV and a 4.91 ERA while also spending time on the IL.

Lucas Erceg (2026, $1.8M proj. salary) provides a firm ceiling with 28 SV and 55 HLD across 223.1 career IP. Héctor Neris (2018, $1.8M salary) also provides an aggressive player-side comparison after entering arbitration with 39 SV and 36 HLD. Like Vodnik, both lost their closer duties in the PY.

Ryan Walker (2026, $1.6M proj. salary) provides the best current-class comparison. Walker enters arbitration with 31 SV and 37 HLD across 235.1 career IP with a 3.56 ERA. Walker holds clear advantages in saves, holds, career bulk and quality, but Vodnik’s representatives could get aggressive and argue he should be valued above Walker because Vodnik has avoided optional assignment in the PY, unlike Walker.

Ultimately, Vodnik having the lowrst career SV of this group should put him at the bottom. I project a $1.5M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Vodnik will be tendered a contract. He is part of a complicated group of former closers entering arbitration with strong career numbers but poor platform years and lost closer roles, which should make this a very volatile market. Tender.

KYLE STOWERS (3.012): $2,950,000

The Case: Stowers enters his first arbitration year with 1,309 career PA, 52 HR, 173 RBI and a 115 wRC+, including a 114 wRC+ in his lone qualifying platform season.

Lars Nootbaar (2024, $2.95M salary) is the primary comparison after entering arbitration with 1,379 career PA, 66 HR, 227 RBI, 30 SB and a 116 wRC+ while also coming off a qualifying platform season.

Zack Gelof (2026, $2.85M proj. salary) and Colton Cowser (2026, $2.6M proj. salary) provide useful current-class comparisons that Stowers should slot in ahead of. Stowers fits cleanly with Nootbaar and I project the same $2.95M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Stowers will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.