Milwaukee Brewers Arbitration Projections and Tender Decisions

Once a team comes up with its projected salary for all of its arbitration-eligible players, it will begin a tender analysis to simply determine: “Are we comfortable guaranteeing Player X this much money?”

If the answer is yes, the player will be tendered a contract prior to the mid-November Tender Deadline. Tendering a contract means the team offers the player a contract for the following season while retaining his rights, with the player’s salary either agreed to later or determined through the arbitration process.

If the answer is no, the player will be DFA’d/non-tendered. Once a player is non-tendered, he is removed from the 40-man roster and becomes a free agent immediately.

The other option a team has is to pre-tender a player, which is a contract agreed to before the Tender Deadline that takes the player out of the arbitration process. This is typically done when a team wants to keep a player, but only at a slightly discounted rate, or when it is a very obvious, typically small raise case that teams like to get out of the way.

This article dives into the market analysis of each case, showing the reasoning behind my leaguewide salary projections, before predicting the tender decision for each player.

All opinions in this article are my own, there was no non-public information used in my analysis.

Milwaukee Brewers Roster Outlook

40-MAN + 60-DAY IL (NON-FA): 41

PENDING FA + MUTUAL OPTIONS: 5

OPTIONS: Contreras (Club, $14.5M), Senzatela (Club, $14.0M)

R5 PROJECTED ADDITIONS: 1; Mike Boeve

ANDREW VAUGHN (5.142): $9,250,000 ($1.6M raise)

The Case: Vaughn enters his final trip through arbitration from a $7.65M salary after totaling 331 PA with 6 HR, 43 RBI and a 134 wRC+ before ending the season on the IL.

Luis Rengifo (2024, $1.55M raise) provides the floor after totaling 304 PA with 6 HR, 30 RBI and a 120 wRC+. Vaughn has slightly more bulk, matches Rengifo’s power, and holds advantages in RBI and quality. He also spent roughly half as much time on the IL, was more of a true starter when healthy and enters from the higher previous salary. Those advantages should get Vaughn above Rengifo’s $1.55M raise.

Garrett Cooper (2022, $1.7M raise) provides the ceiling after totaling 469 PA with 9 HR and 50 RBI. Vaughn has the significant quality advantage, but Cooper’s additional 138 PA along with the power and RBI advantages give him a clear platform-year bulk edge. That keeps Vaughn from reaching Cooper’s $1.7M raise.

Vaughn fits cleanly between Rengifo and Cooper. I project a $1.6M raise, bringing his total salary to $9.25M.

Tender Prediction: This is a sneaky one because it is not very Brewers-like to pay this much for this type of profile, but Vaughn has been so good for Milwaukee. He is a trade candidate and I would not be surprised to see Milwaukee be aggressive trying to get a pre-tender deal done at a cheaper number. Tender.

WILLIAM CONTRERAS (5.112): $12,500,000 ($3.1M raise)

The Case: Contreras enters his final trip through arbitration from a $9.4M salary after receiving a $3.4M raise in Arb-2, the largest Arb-2 catcher raise in the previous 10 years. He followed that up with another strong platform season, totaling 640 PA with 21 HR and a 109 wRC+ while earning an All-Star selection.

Willson Contreras (2021, $2.975M raise) provides the closest comparison. Willson holds the power advantage with more HR and also posted a slightly better wRC+, but William has the significant platform-year bulk advantage along with an All-Star selection. Those advantages should be enough to push William slightly above Willson’s $2.975M raise.

J.T. Realmuto (2019, $4.1M raise) provides the ceiling. Realmuto hit 7 more HR than William despite receiving 48 fewer PA and posted a comparable 107 wRC+, but the biggest separation comes from the rest of his résumé. Realmuto added a Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, All-Star selection and down-ballot MVP votes while providing significantly more defensive value. William’s offensive bulk is strong enough to keep him in the upper catcher market, but he cannot approach Realmuto’s combination of power, defense and awards.

William should get above Willson’s $2.975M raise, but there is substantial separation between his case and Realmuto’s $4.1M raise without award recognition. I project a $3.1M raise, bringing his total salary to $12.5M.

Tender Prediction: Brewers will decline their $14.5M option, placing Contreras back in the arbitration cycle. He will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Declined Club Option and Tender.

BRYSE WILSON (5.051): $870,000 ($20k raise)

The Case: Wilson signed a minor league deal with a reported $850k Major League rate and made 16 appearances with a 4.33 ERA. Cole Sulser (2025, $150k raise) provides the best comparison with similar games pitched, but Sulser worked in higher leverage and posted significantly better quality. Wilson belongs well below Sulser and I project a minimal $20k raise consistent with typical increase in league-minimum, bringing his total salary to $870k if tendered.

Tender Prediction: Wilson is a strong DFA/non-tender candidate as a 5+ MLS player. Non-Tender.

TREVOR MEGILL (5.002): $8,000,000 ($3.3M raise)

The Case: Megill finished the platform season with 30 saves, 7 holds and a 2.63 ERA.

Paul Sewald (2023, $3.25M raise) provides the best raise comparison. Sewald entered from a $4.1M Arb-2 salary, $600k below Megill’s starting point, and recorded a 34 SV in his platform year. Megill, however, holds the advantages in ERA, holds and gmLI, reflecting both better run prevention and a broader high-leverage role. Combined with Megill’s higher starting salary, those advantages should be enough to move him slightly above Sewald’s $3.25M raise. I project him slightly above Sewald at a $3.3M raise, bringing him to $8M.

Tender Prediction: Megill will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

ANGEL ZERPA (4.082): $1,165,000 ($70k raise)

The Case: Zerpa had a very limited season before missing the rest of the year with injury. Josh Sborz (2024, $75k raise), Lucas Sims (2022, $67.5k raise), and Julian Merryweather (2024, $50k raise) provide the best recent range for players coming from similar Arb-1 salaries with brief seasons before ending the year on the IL.

Cole Sands (2026, $70k proj. raise) provides a useful current-class comparison with a similarly limited platform season and injury circumstances. The two cases belong in essentially the same range and I project Zerpa for the same $70k raise, resulting in a $1.165M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Zerpa will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

GARRETT MITCHELL (4.040): $3,000,000 ($2.05M raise)

The Case: Mitchell enters his second trip through arbitration from a $950k salary after putting together his first qualifying season, totaling 531 PA with 11 HR, 14 SB and a 116 wRC+ while also providing substantial defensive value.

Miguel Rojas (2018, $1.975M raise) provides the lower comparison. Rojas entered from a $1.18M salary and totaled 528 PA in his platform year. Mitchell has a slight bulk advantage at 531 PA and also holds the better overall combination of run production and speed. Those advantages, despite Mitchell entering from the lower previous salary, should be enough to push his raise above Rojas’ $1.975M.

LaMonte Wade Jr. (2023, $2.125M raise) provides the upper comparison. Wade entered from a $1.375M salary and totaled 519 PA in his platform year. Mitchell again holds a slight bulk advantage, but Wade’s 17 HR and 120 wRC+ gives him the edge and keeps Mitchell below his $2.125M raise.

Mitchell fits between the two. His qualifying-season bulk, above-average offensive quality, speed and defensive value get him above Rojas, while Wade’s stronger quality keep him below the top of the range. I project a $2.05M raise, bringing Mitchell’s total salary to $3M.

Tender Prediction: Mitchell will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

BRICE TURANG (3.165): $10,350,000 ($6.2M raise)

The Case: Turang enters his second trip through arbitration from a $4.15M salary after a huge platform season, totaling 680 PA with 21 HR, 100 RBI, 19 SB and a 128 wRC+. His combination of everyday bulk, run production, offensive quality and defensive value puts him near the very top of this Arb-2 position-player market.

Jeremy Peña (2025, $5.375M raise) provides the clear historical floor. Peña’s platform season included 543 PA, 17 HR, 62 RBI, 20 SB and a 136 wRC+ while earning an All-Star selection and finishing 10th in MVP voting. Peña has the quality and award advantages (as of now), but Turang has 137 more PA, 4 more HR and 38 more RBI while essentially matching him in speed. Peña’s IL time also suppress his raise. Turang’s enormous bulk and counting-stat advantages make it difficult to keep him anywhere near Peña’s $5.375M raise.

Zach Neto (2026, $6.15M proj. raise) is the closest current-class comparison. Neto totaled 704 PA with 27 HR, 77 RBI, 24 SB and a 116 wRC+. Neto has 24 more PA, 6 more HR and 5 more SB, while Turang holds a massive 23-RBI advantage and a 12-point advantage in wRC+. The cases are extremely close on pure offensive production, but Turang should also hold the advantage in awards, with a likely Gold Glove and stronger MVP-vote finish. That is enough separation for Turang to finish slightly above Neto.

CJ Abrams (2026, $6.4M proj. raise) provides the key current-class ceiling. Abrams finished with 654 PA, 33 HR, 106 RBI, 34 SB and a 124 wRC+. Turang has 26 more PA and the slight quality advantage, but Abrams owns substantial advantages in HR and SB along with 6 more RBI. Abrams’ 30/30 season gives him the stronger traditional counting-stat arbitration case, keeping Turang below his projected $6.4M raise.

Turang’s platform season belongs near the top of this market. His RBI production, offensive quality and likely Gold Glove/MVP-vote advantages are enough to move him $50K ahead of Neto, while Abrams’ superior power/speed counting stats keep Turang below $6.4M. I project a $6.2M raise, bringing his total salary to $10.35M.

Tender Prediction: Turang will be tendered a contract. He is part of a wild Arb-2 middle-infield class that is going to have a very volatile market. The timing of who settles at what price and at what time could move this current class group drastically. Tender.

AKIL BADDOO (3.082): $1,250,000 ($0 raise)

The Case: Baddoo did not appear in the Major Leagues during the 2026 season. I project no raise, keeping him at his previous $1.25M salary.

Tender Prediction: Baddoo was available all year and was never called up. He will be a DFA/non-tender. Non-Tender.

DL HALL (3.074): $1,350,000

The Case: Hall enters arbitration with 176 career IP across 109 appearances and 12 starts with a 3.48 ERA before putting together his best major league season in his platform year, going 4-0 with a 1.91 ERA across 61.1 IP, nearly entirely out of the bullpen.

Michael King (2022, $1.3M salary) is the best comparison after entering arbitration with 143 career IP and 10 starts before throwing 51 IP entirely out of the bullpen with a 2.29 ERA. Hall has slightly more starting experience, more career and platform-year innings and the quality advantage, giving him a legitimate argument to top King.

Dinelson Lamet (2019, $1.3M salary) and Daniel Norris (2018, $1.275M salary) help keep the case from getting too aggressive. Both had significantly more starting experience, with Lamet entering arbitration with 35 career starts and Norris with 39, but Hall’s platform-year quality is substantially better than either.

Hall does not have enough saves or holds to create value as a traditional leverage reliever and does not have enough starting bulk to push significantly above this group, but the 1.91 ERA gives him enough separation to get slightly above the $1.3M historical cases.

Cooper Criswell (2026, $1.3M proj. salary) fits right into that same range in the current class. I project a $1.35M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Hall will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

SAL FRELICK (3.072): $3,150,000

The Case: Frelick enters arbitration as a 2x qualifier coming off by far the worst offensive season of his career. He has still accumulated 1,725 career PA with 21 HR and a 94 wRC+, building most of his value through defense rather than power.

Josh Smith (2025, $3.225M salary) and Bryson Stott (2024, $3.2M salary) provide the strongest historical lookbacks as defense-over-power 2x qualifiers with similar career bulk. Smith entered arbitration with 1,640 career PA, 31 HR and a 97 wRC+, while Stott entered with 1,677 PA, 36 HR and a 91 wRC+. Frelick’s career bulk and quality keep him attached to that group, but the weaker power totals and poor platform year keep him slightly below both.

Nolan Schanuel (2026, $3.25M proj. salary) is the most direct current-class comparison because he also enters as a 2x qualifier who did not qualify in his platform year, but Schanuel’s 109 career wRC+ gives him a clear quality advantage.

I project Frelick just below the historical Smith/Stott range at a $3.15M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Frelick will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

JOEY ORTIZ (3.030): $2,525,000

The Case: Ortiz enters arbitration with 1,466 career PA, 27 HR and an 89 career wRC+. He has qualified twice but did not qualify in his platform year, although he still produced solid quality with a 103 wRC+.

Geraldo Perdomo (2024, $2.55M salary) also posted a 103 wRC+ in a non-qualifying platform year and entered arbitration with a very similar career line of 1,420 PA, 14 HR and an 86 wRC+. Perdomo technically never qualified, though he came within six PA of doing it twice, and he was named an All-Star in his PY-1.

The playing-time trajectories of the two are nearly identical with similar career bulk, similar overall offensive production and identical platform-year wRC+, but Perdomo gets the slight nod because of the All-Star recognition. I project Ortiz just below Perdomo at a $2.525M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Ortiz will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

BO NAYLOR (3.014): $1,300,000

The Case: Naylor is a very odd case due to spending over 100 days on option this season in year 4 of his MLB career after he’s tallied up over 1100 career PA’s.

Despite the strange scenario there is a perfect comp for him in Eric Haase (2024, $1.35M salary). Haase and Naylor played in 30 and 31 games respectively in their platform seasons while both enter within 8 career PA’s of each other. Haase has a slight edge posting an 85 career wRC+ with 46 HR’s both slightly ahead of Naylor’s 82 career wRC+ with 41 HR’s. Naylor slots in at $1.3M.

Tender Prediction: Naylor will be retained. Milwaukee acquired him via trade, so there was clearly intent to keep him, and I would expect the Brewers to try to get a pre-tender deal done below his projected $1.3M arbitration salary. Pre-Tender.

DAVID HAMILTON (3.011): $1,970,000

The Case: Hamilton enters arbitration alongside Andruw Monasterio after the two were traded for each other last offseason, and they enter the market attached at the hip with Hamilton at 937 career PA’s to Monasterio’s 939 and 387 platform-year PA’s to Monasterio’s 347 while posting an 84 platform-year wRC+ compared to Monasterio’s 83.

There is next to nothing separating the two and they should earn nearly identical salaries. Andruw Monasterio (2026, $1.975M proj. salary) is therefore the most direct current-class comparison, while Ernie Clement (2024, $1.97M salary) and Tyrone Taylor (2023, $2.025M salary) provide the best historical range as all are defensive-first players with 800-1,000 career PA’s and without a qualifying season.

Taylor amassed 41 career HR’s with a 101 wRC+ across 972 career PA’s, and although he had only 243 platform-year PA’s his slight career bulk and quality advantages over Monasterio and Hamilton keep him as the ceiling, while Clement is the inverse with the fewest career PA’s at 816 but the most platform-year bulk at 452 PA’s. Hamilton’s 81 career wRC+ is nearly identical to Clement’s 80 and trails Monasterio’s 87, which keeps him just below Monasterio and puts him directly on Clement at a projected $1.97M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Hamilton will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

GRANT ANDERSON (3.007): $975,000

The Case: Anderson enters his first arbitration trip after throwing 59 IP across 52 appearances with 5 HLD and a 3.36 ERA before finishing the season on the IL. He has 191 career IP with 17 HLD and 1 SV.

Brennan Bernardino (2025, $925k salary) provides the lower comparison from a similar first-time relief market. Bernardino entered arbitration with 21 career SV+HLD and recorded 3 SV+HLD across 51.2 IP with a 3.14 ERA in his platform year. Dylan Lee (2024, $1.025M salary) provides the upper comparison after posting similar platform-year bulk with significantly better quality. Lee entered arbitration with 24 career SV+HLD and recorded 9 SV+HLD across 59.2 IP with a 2.11 ERA in his platform year.

Anderson’s 59 IP and solid platform-year ERA place him between the two. I project a $975k total salary.

Tender Prediction: I expect Anderson to remain with Milwaukee on a pre-tender deal. The Brewers did well to preserve his final option year, which gives the club useful flexibility in 2027. Pre-Tender.

JARED KOENIG (2.157): $900,000

The Case: Koenig only appeared in 9 games and threw 7 IP in his platform season, finishing with 1 HLD and a 9.00 ERA. His arbitration case is carried almost entirely by his prior work, with 174.1 career IP, 38 HLD, 3 SV and a 3.61 ERA.

Jimmy Herget (2024, $850k salary) provides the best historical limited-platform comparison throwing in only 8 PY games but coming in with similar career IP and ERA with 23 SV+HLD. Koenig’s career SV+HLD advantage is enough to move him slightly above. I project a $900k total salary.

Tender Prediction: Koenig really struggled this season after being so good in 2024 and 2025. I expect a pre-tender split deal to lessen the risk of keeping him now that he no longer has any options, although he is a potential DFA/non-tender candidate if Milwaukee needs the roster spot. Pre-Tender.

QUINN PRIESTER (2.134): $900,000

The Case: Priester enters arbitration as a Super Two after missing his entire PY with a 4.45 ERA across 257 career IP and 39 starts. Griffin Canning (2022, $850K salary) also missed his entire PY with 209.1 IP, 41 starts and a 4.73 ERA while Casey Mize (2023, $830K salary) entered with 188.2 IP across 39 starts and a 4.29 ERA.

Priester has more bulk than both historical comps and more career bulk than every current missed-PY case outside of Reese Olson (2026, $950k proj. salary), but Olson and Bowden Francis (2026, $925k proj. salary) both hold significant quality advantages. I project Priester to earn a $900k Arb-1 salary.

Tender Prediction: Priester will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.