Mitch Keller Is the Pirates’ Biggest X-Factor

The last year or so has been a vicious cycle of ups and downs for the Pittsburgh Pirates. While they’ve experienced highs, such as Paul Skenes’ Cy Young campaign, they’ve also faced equally significant lows, including another losing season.

This hasn’t just been a whirlwind for the Pirates as a whole, but it’s been even more chaotic for Mitch Keller. At multiple points during this span, Keller’s future in the black and gold seemed far from guaranteed, even though he’s only entering the third year of his five-year extension.

The primary reason for a potential Keller trade would’ve been to supplement the offense, but now, just a few months away from spring training, the Pirates have done that without needing to move the 2023 All-Star. Now that he’s very likely staying put in Pittsburgh, Mitch Keller is the Pirates’ biggest X-factor heading into the 2026 season.

With a relatively young, inexperienced core taking shape in Pittsburgh, Keller’s consistent nature is more important than ever. While they’re still far from a complete product on the field, this is likely the closest the Pirates have been to competing since 2018.

Let’s take a closer look and examine exactly why Keller’s success is so important for this club, and what another dominant season from him could mean for the 2026 Pittsburgh Pirates.

Keller’s Repeated Consistency

If there’s one thing Mitch Keller is most known for, it’s consistency.

Ever since Keller began to find himself during the 2022 season, his numbers have looked relatively similar by season’s end. He’s put up at least 175 innings for each of the last three seasons, while posting an ERA between 4.19 and 4.25 in each of those campaigns.

In virtually every category, Keller’s numbers have barely fluctuated from year to year. Not only has he consistently put up similar ERAs and innings in each season, but he’s also posted similar FIP, fWAR, and HR/9 numbers, just to name a few.

Aside from being a consistent force at the top of the Pirates’ rotation, Keller has reached some pretty impressive peaks during this tenure. He made his first All-Star team during the 2023 season, the same campaign that saw Keller reach the 200-strikeout threshold for the first time in his career.

In fact, his 210 strikeouts that season broke a franchise record for the most strikeouts by a right-hander in a single season. This isn’t the only franchise record Keller has broken during his time in Pittsburgh, as he also holds the record for most strikeouts in PNC Park history and the longest streak of games with at least eight strikeouts.

While Keller has regressed slightly from his 2023 All-Star form, he’s still a very reliable force near the top of the rotation. In 32 starts last season, Keller recorded a 4.19 ERA, 150 strikeouts, and a 2.5 fWAR, all while posting his lowest HR/9 since 2022.

If Keller can post another season similar to his 2025 campaign, it would be huge for the Pirates’ rotation. It would do wonders for the Pirates to have another starting pitcher (besides Skenes) from wom they have a good idea of what to expect, especially considering their rotation this year will consist of plenty of new, young faces.

The Pirates no longer need Keller to be the superhero starting pitcher he had to be earlier in his career; they just need him to keep being someone they can rely on.

Leading a Young Rotation

Aside from being a consistent force at the top of the Bucs’ rotation, Keller’s impact will be felt far beyond his on-field production. The Pirates don’t just have a relatively young and experienced team on offense, but their pitching staff, as it stands right now, is going to include a lot of youngsters.

As a veteran, Keller’s job will be to lead these young arms, teaching them how to get acclimated to the major league level and the routines they will need to be successful. This is especially important because if the Pirates want any shot at succeeding in 2026, their rotation needs to perform like one of the best in the league.

Of course, as is the case for any player, the major league season can be full of ups and downs. These failures are more common among less experienced players, and mental toughness through rough patches can often make or break players long-term.

It’ll be important that Keller helps Pittsburgh’s young arms learn how to deal with failure at the big league level, and he’s the perfect person to send this message.

Although Keller ended up becoming a successful big league pitcher, the transition was not seamless. He began his career with a rough MLB debut, which saw him allow six runs in the first big league inning he ever pitched. He eventually went on to finish his rookie season with an ERA over 7.00.

After showing promise in a limited COVID-19 season in 2020, Keller again struggled to find himself in the big leagues. He threw 100.2 innings of 6.17 ERA baseball in 2021, leading to doubts about whether or not he’d ever reach his top-prospect potential.

However, through a lot of hard work and commitment to his craft, Keller wasn’t defined by his initial failures. He put in countless hours with the Tread Athletics team and refined his arsenal, which eventually led Keller to become the pitcher he is today.

These lessons he learned along the way are so valuable for a young staff to pick up, as it’s much easier to go through the dog days of summer with someone who has been through it themselves.

Bubba Chandler, Braxton Ashcraft, Hunter Barco, and Thomas Harrington should all get opportunities to start big league games in 2026, and these four arms were all once top prospects. This is something that Keller shares with all of them, specifically Chandler, as both right-handers were once regarded as top-20 prospects in all of baseball.

While this isn’t something that will appear in the box scores, Keller’s clubhouse presence and his influence on the team’s young stars will be one of the bigger factors in any success the Pirates have in 2026.

More Run Support

As I previously mentioned, Keller has been one of the few bright spots in a dark era of Pirates baseball over the last few seasons. During this same period, the Pirates saw historically bad performances from their offenses, which can take a significant toll on a pitcher’s confidence.

Without having any run support, Keller’s impact on every game was multiplied. He was elevated to a position where he had to deliver big-game performances whenever he took the mound for the team to have any chance at winning.

Although he often delivered, constantly relying on your starting pitchers to turn in incredible performances every single game is far from a winning formula.

It’s a long season, and there are going to be multiple points during the year when a pitcher just doesn’t have his best stuff and is lit up because of it. Without having an offense to pick you up when things get bleak, these moments become even tougher.

During the 2025 season, Keller received some of the worst run support in the league. The Pirates averaged 3.7 runs per game he started, the sixth-lowest number among qualified starters. That shows how rarely the offense came through for him.

Although it’s not an impactful stat by any means, Keller also finished with a record of just 6-15, which didn’t reflect his production whatsoever.

However, in 2026, this has a chance to be a completely different story. The Pirates have added big-time bats in the form of Brandon Lowe and Ryan O’Hearn, and the bar has been raised offensively in other areas as well.

With the addition of Lowe and O’Hearn alone, the Pirates immediately add just shy of 50 home runs to their lineup. This will be so impactful for starters like Keller, as they may finally have opportunities to pitch without constant pressure weighing on them from the lack of run support.

With Keller potentially having the chance to pitch more freely, this could have a tremendous impact on his on-field production. Without being in so many tight games, Keller may feel like he can actually attack hitters with strikes, which could ultimately lead to positive results.

Final Thoughts

Mitch Keller’s role for the 2026 Pirates will be about more than just his performance on the mound. As the veteran leader of a young rotation and a key part of the team’s stability, Keller could be the foundation of a very good 2026 Pirates team.

It’s not hard to imagine a scenario where, a year from now, we’re reflecting on the season and recognizing that the Pirates’ success wouldn’t have been nearly as achievable without Keller’s impact on the team.