MLB best bets, props, picks, and predictions for Mon. 8/12

Cody Goggin's Cardinals vs. Reds Best Bet: Back Sonny Gray's Strikeout Prop

Monday, Aug. 12

6:40 p.m. ET

MLB.TV

Sonny Gray Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+108, BetRivers)

By Cody Goggin

Sonny Gray will get the start for the St. Louis Cardinals on Monday. Since being acquired in the offseason, Gray has been the ace of the Cardinals’ staff and will battle one of his former teams.

Gray has a 3.65 ERA this season with a 3.68 xERA. His 30.4% strikeout rate is the second-highest single-season mark of his career and ranks in the 91st percentile of qualified pitchers. Gray also has avoided walking batters, as his 5.8% walk rate ranks in the 85th percentile.

Gray’s biggest issue this season has been allowing a moderate amount of hard contact, but he makes up for it with his strikeouts and keeping the ball on the ground. The Reds rank 26th in hard-hit rate, 20th in barrel rate, and 30th in exit velocity, which should help out Gray’s weakness. Cincinnati strikes out at the sixth-highest rate in the league and ranks 25th in wRC+.

I think Sonny Gray should be able to go deep into this game, as he has plenty of advantages over this Cincinnati offense. This will also give him ample opportunities to flash his high strikeout rate.

Pick: Sonny Gray Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+108)

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Sean Zerillo's Rangers vs. Red Sox Best Bet: Back Texas Defense On Moneyline

Monday, Aug. 12

7:10 p.m. ET

MLB.TV

Rangers ML (+115, Bet365)

By Sean Zerillo

Tyler Mahle will make his second start since returning from elbow surgery. The righty only posted a 92 Stuff+ figure in his first start back (111 in 2023, 100 in 2022), but his velocity (92.3 mph) compared favorably to pre-surgery levels (92.6 mph in 2023).

• MLB spreads typically involve a 1.5-run spread for favorites, and the run line can vary, providing insights into betting strategies. This is due to the lower-scoring nature of MLB games, making the spreads smaller compared to other sports.

The rest of the season projections put Mahle between a 4.19 and 4.42 FIP projection, compared to a well above-average 3.32 xERA and 3.65 in 2023 and a 3.49 xERA and 4.03 xFIP in 2022. I view the projection more as his floor, with pre-injury results as his ceiling.

Projections (projected range of 3.87 to 4.19) and pitch modeling metrics prefer Brayan Bello (103 Stuff+, 104 Pitching+, 3.64 botERA) to Mahle (3.75 botERA) to Mahle. However, Bello (5.16 ERA, 4.75 xERA) has continued to disappoint (career 4.64 ERA, 3.88 xFIP) at the MLB level despite obvious upside.

Moreover, Bello is returning on Monday from paternity leave without skipping a start – and may be less than 100% mentally and physically – after likely less-than-ideal sleep in recent days.

Texas is the superior defensive club – ranking 1st in Outs Above Average (OAA) and 8th in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) on the season; Boston ranks 27th and 12th, respectively, by the exact defensive measurements.

I projected these offenses about the same (102 wRC+ for both teams against a right-handed pitcher – assuming Jarren Duran doesn't get suspended – and Texas's offense has looked as good as it has all year of late; Josh Jong recently returned from the IL, and Corey Seager is finally hitting (148 wRC+ since the All-Star break).

Pick: Rangers ML (+115)

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