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MLB Best Bets: Who's going to lead MLB in Strikeouts?

By Jared Shlensky | Last updated 3/14/23

The MLB regular season is getting closer by the day, which means it’s time to take a look at some more prop bets. We’ve gone over quite a few already — Stolen Bases leader, Home Run leader, RBI leader, etc. — but you know what these all have in common? They focus on offense.

Let’s change it up and talk about pitching, particularly strikeouts. The last time a pitcher led the majors in strikeouts in consecutive seasons was in 2011 and 2012 when Justin Verlander was with Detroit. Does that automatically mean you shouldn’t bet on Gerrit Cole to lead MLB in strikeouts for a second straight season? Maybe. Maybe not. That’s the beauty of this prop bet, the volatility.

This very well could be the hardest individual pitching prop bet to get right, which makes it all that more exciting to bet on. So many guys are worth betting on … like Chris Sale at 80/1 or Cole, the consensus favorite, at 5/1. Same can be said for Zack Wheeler (+5000) or Michael Kopech (+20000).

Hitting on this prop bet is like hitting the Mega or the Powerball. Maybe not quite that hard, but you get the point. However, that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t bet it. We’ve got a couple of guys we really like, so before you convince yourself you have no chance of hitting on this prop, hear us out first. We promise it’ll be worth your while.

The Favorites:
Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees (+500)
Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers (+800)
Max Scherzer, New York Mets (+1000)

Gerrit Cole led MLB in strikeouts in 2022, so it’s no surprise he’s the favorite to lead MLB in strikeouts again in 2023. Cole has swing-and-miss stuff, is durable and no matter what people say, is the ace of the Yankees' starting staff. We’ll talk more about Cole but considering his track record, he’s worth betting on.

Corbin Burnes already made it clear early in spring training that he and the Brewers are not on good terms after an arbitration hearing went worse than imaginable, so don’t be surprised if Burnes gets dealt before the trade deadline. It’s pretty unlikely Burnes signs a long-term extension with the Brewers, and we’re hesitant to bet on someone who is likely to be on a different team, let alone league, midway through the year. Even if Burnes leads the league in strikeouts at the All-Star break, he could get moved to a contender who decides to rest him in September if they’re leading their division by 10 or more games, similar to what the Dodgers did with their starters last year. Burnes has the best odds of any National League pitcher to lead MLB in strikeouts at 8/1 — and is more than deserving — after leading the NL in strikeouts, but not knowing the Brewers’ long-term plans with him scares us too much to wager even a small amount.

We’re not sure any pitcher likes the pitch clock more than Max Scherzer, so that alone makes him a top candidate to lead MLB in strikeouts. The book has him listed as the third-most likely pitcher to lead MLB in strikeouts at 10/1, and we think that line should be closer to 15/1 or even 20/1. Scherzer hasn’t led the bigs in punchouts since 2018, is getting up there in age at 38 and coming off an injury-plagued 2022 season. There’s no denying Scherzer is one of the best pitchers in baseball but there’s too much risk in putting money on him to lead MLB in strikeouts right now.

Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees (+500)

Cole is the safest choice to bet big on, even with a line of 5/1. The line isn’t great but considering Cole is the reigning strikeout champ, has made 30 or more starts in six straight seasons and logged 200 or more innings in four of the last five seasons, the line is right where it should be.

Cole is the ace of the Yankees staff, no matter what people say. No, it’s not Nestor Cortes or Carlos Rodon. It’s Cole. Is it possible Cortes or Rodon has a better year than Cole? Absolutely. But Cole is still the guy the Yankees can count on most in the rotation.

We know he’s 32, but plenty of pitchers — Nolan Ryan, Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw — have dominated at that age. And even though it’s only spring training, Cole has looked pretty sharp in Grapefruit League play (2 GS, 6.1 IP, 0 R, 3 H, 0 BB, 11 K).

And with Rodon currently hurt for the Yankees, it’s that much more important Cole pitches well for New York. Cole is a power pitcher, and power pitchers always seem to rack up the K’s. That shouldn’t change in 2023, so go ahead, put some money on Cole to lead MLB in strikeouts for a second straight season.

Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers (+1100)

When Jacob deGrom is healthy, he’s unequivocally the best pitcher in baseball. Not the best starter or right-handed pitcher, the best pitcher in baseball. The problem is deGrom has had a real tough time staying healthy the last couple of seasons.

We know deGrom has never led MLB in strikeouts, but he’s led the National League in strikeouts twice, and with how competitive the AL West is, if deGrom can stay healthy, there’s a strong possibility he could make 25 or more starts.

If deGrom can get to that number — 25 starts — there’s a good chance he wins the AL Cy Young and leads the league in wins and strikeouts. That’s how good his “stuff” is.

And even after suffering a spring training scare back in February with tightness in his side, deGrom faced four Kansas City Royals pitchers on Monday, and it sounds like it went well. He did allow a home run but threw 24 pitches, 20 for strikeouts, and struck out three batters. More importantly, deGrom said he felt good and is back on track.

Betting big on deGrom is certainly worth the risk considering how good he is when healthy, and that’s why he’s our pick to lead MLB in strikeouts. A change of scenery sometimes is the best remedy, and we’re sold on deGrom delivering in a big in his first season with the Rangers.

Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves (+1200)

Is the sophomore slump a thing? Yes, yes it is. Doesn’t matter the sport. Football, basketball or even baseball. We’ve seen it happen in all three sports. But it’s also not unheard of for a rookie to have an even better season in year two either.

We think the latter of the two is much more likely to happen for Spencer Strider, and that’s why we included him in our top three. Strider struck out 202 batters over 131.1 innings last year, and we’re confident his innings and starts increase this year.

We thought Strider deserved the National League Rookie of the Year crown last year, but that’s a discussion for a different day. Strider is still finding himself as a pitcher, but more importantly, the league is still searching for answers on how to hit him. Actually, they might just be looking to figure out how to put the ball in play against him. We’re kidding of course, but you get the point. This kid is legit.

Strider might not be the Braves' No. 1 but he’s well on his way there. Strider has legit swing-and-miss stuff and should only get better with experience. The line isn’t great at 12/1, but we’re not sure it’s going to get better anytime soon, especially if he gets out to a fast start. Betting big on Strider isn’t a bad idea, but for now, we recommend staying conservative.

Others to consider:
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels (+2000)
Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox (+8000)

Our Pick: Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers (+1100)

Bet $100 to win $1,100.
All odds via Caesars Sportsbook

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