MLB Home Run Parlay, 6/4

Home Run #1: Jake Burger, TEX vs. Shane Baz, TB (+475)

First off, no starter on today's slate has given up more longballs than Shane Baz in 2025, which becomes even more impressive considering hitters only took him yard three times through his first 29.1 IP (5 GS, 0.92 HR/9). As soon as the temperature rose, so did Baz's ERA — he proceeded to allow 25 earned runs over his next 31.1 IP, including nine ding dongs. Yikes.

Remember, fastball velocity isn't everything. Shane's up over a mile an hour year-over-year on the heater, but degrading extension and Stuff+ grades have taken the whiffs with them. Until Baz starts elevating the four-seamer out of the zone, the longballs should continue.

Flipside is Texas's RHH slugger Jake Burger, fresh off a recent promotion following a brutal start to 2025. Despite a .231 BA since getting the call,  Burger's power metrics scream upcoming breakout — 53.4% Flyball, 46.3% Hard Hit, 17.1% Barrel. 

And of course, we're in an optimal hitting environment at Steinbrenner Field, a AAA park ranking top-5 in HR/FB% on the season.

Home Run #2: Carlos Correa, MIN vs. Jeffrey Springs, ATH (+475)

Speaking of ideal hitting environments, few stadiums can keep up with AAA Sutter Health Park in Sacramento. The team formerly known as Oakland's new home ranks near the top of the board in home runs (85), home run to flyball rate (16.6%), and barrel to home run rate (51.7%). None of this has helped Jeffrey Springs whatsoever, the A's offseason LHP acquisition — whose propensity for flyballs (47.4% FB) has haunted him all season. Plus, his four-seamer sits at just 90 mph, which is extremely hard to get past strong RHH.

He'll do his best to suppress the Twinkies and lefty-masher Carlos Correa, who's killed southpaws all year — 38 PA; .306 BA, 1.037 OPS, 50.0% Flyball, 42.9% Pull, 53.6% Hard Hit, 14.4% Barrel, .431 xwOBA, 4 HR. Love Correa to go yard tonight.

UPDATE: Just hit the wire that ATH may go with Osvaldo Bido, which doesn't affect my cap at all — he's allowed 10 HR in just 44.0 IP (2.07 HR/9). 

LAGHEZZA'S LEAN:

Who doesn't love a huge win? That said, anytime we set our sights on a true longshot bet, proper risk execution's worth a mention. Please make to scale down your risk responsibly if you're tailing me on JAKE BURGER HOME RUN + CARLOS CORREA HOME RUN (+3205) on BET365.