MLB Home Run Predictions Today: HR Prop Bets for Friday, May 1

It’s "Friday Fly Ball Frenzy," and this slate is loaded with hitters in prime spots to do damage. With shaky pitching and favorable splits across the board, this could turn into a home run showcase in a hurry.

We have Daulton Varsho in a sneaky breakout spot against a fly-ball-prone arm, Wilyer Abreu lined up against a pitcher getting crushed by lefties, and Ketel Marte facing a matchup he’s already dominated. If you’re hunting homers, these are prime bats to go yard.

All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change. DraftKings does not sponsor this content.

Best Home Run Props Today

Daulton Varsho Home Run Bet (+398)

A power breakout spot could be setting up for Varsho against Simeon Woods Richardson. Varsho has only four home runs so far, but three have come against right-handers, which fits this matchup. Woods Richardson has allowed six home runs this season and has struggled with lefties, who are hitting .317 with three home runs. His 60% fly-ball rate and 40% hard-hit rate only add to the risk. Back at Rogers Centre, this is a spot where Varsho’s power could show up.

Wilyer Abreu Home Run Bet (+494)

Abreu is in a strong spot to go deep Friday against Mike Burrows. Abreu is hitting .280 with all four of his home runs coming against right-handers, and he draws a favorable matchup here. Burrows has allowed seven home runs this season, including five to lefties, who are batting .343 with a .600 slugging percentage. Abreu’s pull-heavy approach and success against fastballs match up well, and he hit .364 vs. Houston earlier this season.

Ketel Marte Home Run Bet (+497)

Power is in play for Marte against Colin Rea. Marte has five home runs this season and is coming off one Wednesday, showing he’s seeing the ball well. He’s also dominated this matchup, going 4-for-6 with two home runs against Rea. His improved left-handed swing has boosted his success against righties, while Rea has been hittable with a 4.61 ERA. This is a spot where Marte’s power can show up again.

2026 MLB HR Leaders

• RF Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (12)
• DH Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros (12)
• 1B Munetaka Murakami, Chicago White Sox (12)
• LF Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies (11)
• CF Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels (10)
• SS Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds (10)
• RF James Wood, Washington Nationals (10)
• 1B Ben Rice, New York Yankees (10)