The NFL is finally back, but that isn't going to stop us from firing on home run props every weekday. Let's kick off the new week on a profitable note with our three favorite HR bets for Monday's MLB slate.
Marlins at Pirates, 6:40 p.m. ET
We're always looking to fade Valente Bellozo every time he takes the mound. The Miami Marlins starter ranks in the seventh percentile in barrel rate (10.7 percent) and the eighth percentile in hard-hit rate (44.7 percent), and his 36.7 percent fly-ball rate is one of the highest among starters. Bellozo gets in trouble because he throws his ineffective 4-seam fastball 41.6 percent of the time, which is music to Bart's ears. Bart is batting .333 and slugging .711 with a 50.0 percent hard-hit rate against 4-seamers this season.
Royals at Yankees, 6:40 p.m. ET
Carlos Rodon is another pitcher we're looking to fade for the same reasons. The left-hander has given up 26 home runs this season partly due to his 49.6 percent 4-seam fastball rate, and that plays right into Witt's hands. Witt has a .331 xBA, a whopping .784 xSLG and a 59.8 percent hard-hit rate against 4-seamers this season. He's also crushing lefties of late, batting .310 and slugging .552 against southpaws over the last month. The wind is projected to blow out to left-center field at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium, as well.
Cubs at Dodgers, 10:10 p.m. ET
The best weather for home runs on Monday night is going to be at HR-friendly Dodger Stadium, as the wind is projected to blow out to right field on a steamy fall night in Los Angeles. Seiya Suzuki doesn't have great raw numbers of late, but that doesn't reflect how well he's swinging the bat. The Chicago Cubs slugger has a ridiculous 70.0 percent hard-hit rate and a 60.0 percent fly-ball rate against righties this month, so he's trending in the right direction with a solid matchup against Walker Buehler on deck.
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