
The baseball world received some shocking news recently when it was revealed that the Detroit Tigers and their star pitcher, Tarik Skubal, weren’t close on contract extension talks. The gap was at least $250 million, and potentially closer to $300 million.
It is easy to see why Skubal is seeking so much money. He was unanimously selected as the American League Cy Young Award winner in 2024, completing the pitching triple crown as well.
For an encore in 2025, he performed at an even higher level. The lefty’s production was better virtually across the board, and he looks well on his way to winning the AL Cy Young Award for a second consecutive year.
That kind of performance will set anyone up for a massive payday. Entering his final year of team control, unless the Tigers blow him away with an offer, he is almost certainly going to be testing the open market.
As a Scott Boras client, it isn’t too surprising that Skubal will look to maximize his earnings as a free agent. But that puts the Tigers in an incredibly difficult spot.
Alas, they have no one to blame but themselves. This dilemma was somewhat a self-inflicted wound because they made such a low-ball offer to their ace after he won the Cy Young in 2024.
Looking to buy out his final two years of arbitration and first two years of free agency, it made sense to start dialogue on a contract. But offering him a four-year, $100 million deal coming off such a dominant campaign certainly set the tone in the wrong fashion.
Now, as a result, it is looking more and more likely that Skubal will not be signing an extension with Detroit. Because of that, trade rumors have started to swirl about where he could end up pitching in 2026.
But, there are questions from executives around the league about whether the front office would have the guts to move their star pitcher.
“I imagine they’ll consider it, if the bidding gets high enough,” said one AL executive, via Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. “I’m not sure if they’ll have the guts to do it.”
No front office executive wants to be known as the person who traded away a Cy Young Award winner and turned another team into a World Series contender. Especially because it would likely remove the Tigers from contention.
It would be shocking to see Detroit move on from its best player, but it is something they have to strongly consider. Trading him for a haul of a package is better than watching him depart in free agency for nothing.
What could a trade of that magnitude look like? Mark Feinsand of MLB.com shared some ideas on what it would take to get a deal done. Hint: it won’t be cheap even with him entering his final year before free agency.
“The baseline is somewhere north of what Milwaukee received for Corbin Burnes,” an NL executive said. “How far north of that is anyone’s guess.”
Ahead of the 2024 campaign, the Milwaukee Brewers traded Corbin Burnes to the Baltimore Orioles. In exchange, they received left-handed pitcher DL Hall and infielder Joey Ortiz, both of whom were top 100 prospects. They also received the No. 34 overall pick in the draft.
Like Skubal, Burnes was a former Cy Young Award winner entering the final year of control. However, Skubal has proven to be on another level from the now Arizona Diamondbacks.
“It would have to be two or three Top 100 type guys,” an AL executive said. “Skubal is at another level from Burnes, but that return is a good floor.”
Another recent example that could be used as a baseline is Garrett Crochet heading to the Boston Red Sox. He was under team control for two years, and it showed in the quality of the return package.
Catcher Kyle Teel and outfielder Braden Montgomery were both top 100 prospects. Infielder Chase Meidroth and right-handed pitcher Wikelman Gonzalez were also included and are highly-regarded prospects.
The price for Skubal, given his status as a player likely to hit free agency after the 2026 campaign, is somewhere between where Burnes and Crochet came in at. Players of his caliber rarely become available in this fashion, and a bidding war could certainly ensue, especially with teams that won’t be players in free agency for him potentially getting involved.
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