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MLB Predictions Friday, Expert Picks, Projections for June 6

Originally posted on Action Network | By Sean Zerillo | Last updated Jun 10, 2025 7:45 AM ET

Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Friday, June 6.

The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Friday, I preview Rays vs. Red Sox, Nationals vs. Mets, Yankees vs. Royals, and White Sox vs. Astros. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.

My projections for every MLB game on Friday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.

Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Friday.

Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author’s formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.

MLB Predictions, Expert Picks — Friday, June 6

Rays vs. Red Sox

RHP Ryan Pepiot (TBR) vs. RHP Lucas Giolito (BOS)

Both teams burned several key relievers in Monday’s series opener.

The Red Sox used Aroldis Chapman for the third consecutive day. They also deployed Zack Kelly and Brennan Bernardino for the third time in four days. Luis Gerrero was forced to eat up ⅓ innings.

The Rays used Garrett Cleavinger, Manuel Rodriguez, and Pete Fairbanks for the third time in the past five days. Eric Orze pitched for the third time in the past five days. Ian Seymour was forced to eat up two innings.

Boston starting pitcher Lucas Giolito has significant blowup potential — he allowed seven runs across eight hits in his last start against the Angels. He has yet to recover from his UCL injury, so his velocity is down a tick, and his underlying stats look ugly (6.42 ERA, 5.80 xERA, 10.7% K-BB, 23.6% CSW, 88 Stuff+, 94 Pitching+).

Tampa starting pitcher Ryan Pepiot is vulnerable now that he’s lost some swing-and-miss stuff (strikeout rate down from 26% to 21% year over year, xERA up from 3.62 to 4.23). He’s run into a home run problem (1.42 HR/9 allowed), as he’s not missing bats and is a heavy fly-ball pitcher (35.2% career GB rate allowed).

The weather is much more hitter-friendly on Tuesday than it was on Monday, with 65-degree temperatures and slight winds out to left field.

I project 9.92 runs for this game.

Pick: Over 9.5 (+102 | Bet to -105)

Nationals vs. Mets

LHP MacKenzie Gore (WSN) vs. RHP Griffin Canning (NYM)

The weather should be hitter-friendly at Citi Field on Tuesday, with 75-degree temperatures and seven-MPH winds out toward right field. It’s arguably the best hitting weather we’ve seen in Queens this season.

Nationals starting pitcher MacKenzie Gore is an ace (3.20 xERA, 28.2% K-BB, 29.9% CSW), but he’s always run a high BABIP (.341), and he’s running a very high strand rate this season (83.5%) — he’s overperforming his ERA by about a half-run.

Washington’s bullpen is abysmal, ranking as a bottom-two MLB relief unit this season. Over the past 30 days, Nationals relievers have posted a 4.68 xFIP and 7.3% strikeout minus walk rate.

The Nationals are also a bad defensive team, ranking 26th among MLB fielding units in DRS (-23) and OAA (-17).

The Mets’ bats are hot, leading all MLB lineups in wRC+ over the past two weeks (140).

Mets starting pitcher Griffin Canning is having a breakout season behind a new arm slot (2.90 ERA, 12.4% K-BB), primarily by keeping the ball on the ground more (51.2% GB rate allowed).

That said, he’s also running a high strand rate (82%), and his underlying stats indicate his ERA should be about a run higher (4.09 xERA, 3.68 xFIP).

Behind him, the Mets have been a league-average bullpen over the past two weeks.

I project 8.28 runs for this matchup.

Pick: Over 7.5 (-110 | Bet to 8 +100)

Yankees vs. Royals

LHP Max Fried (NYY) vs. LHP Noah Cameron (KCR)

We should see hitter-friendly weather at Kaufmann Park on Tuesday, with 86-degree temperatures and slight breezes out toward left field.

While the Royals rank 30th among MLB lineups in wRC+ at home this season (73), part of that is because Kaufmann has seen a drastic decrease in Park Factor this year (108 from 2022-to-2024, 83 in 2025). In reality, the team’s home slash line (.250/.300/.351) is similar to their road slash line (.256/.310/.392). All of this is more noise than predictive.

Royals starting pitcher Noah Cameron looks good (3.20 xERA, 7.6% K-BB, 28% CSW, 97 Pitching+, 4.36 botERA) behind a vast arsenal and a good slider (104 Stuff+). Ultimately, he projects as around a four-FIP pitcher.

Yankees starting pitcher Max Fried has been elite (1.78 ERA, 3.39 xERA, 18.5% K-BB, 27.2% CSW, 108 Stuff+, 3.33 botERA). The Yankees staff has optimized his arsenal, but he has been lucky (.247 BABIP, 80.8% strand rate, 7.5% HR/FB rate) and is due for regression back to his projected FIP range (3.27 to 3.42).

I project the Royals ML at +147, and I project 9.14 runs for the matchup.

Pick: Royals ML (+170 | Bet to +160) | Over 8.5 (-112 | Bet to -117)

White Sox vs. Astros

RHP Shane Smith (CWS) vs. RHP Lance McCullers Jr. (HOU)

White Sox starting pitcher Shane Smith looks pretty good (3.59 xERA, 13.4% K-BB, 4.06 botERA, 4.03-to-4.36 projected FIP range) behind a plus changeup (104 Stuff+, .292 xwOBA against).

The Astros’ offense is much better against lefties (123 wRC+) than righties (97 wRC+), playing into Smith’s favor.

Astros starting pitcher Lance McCullers Jr. has underwhelming earned run indicators (4.40 ERA, 4.40 xERA), but he’s starting to improve as he’s settled back from injury (19 K, 2 BB across last two outings). Remember, he hasn’t pitched since 2022, and his advanced pitching model metrics have shown significant improvement over the past few starts.