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MLB Probable Starters Plus Underdog Winners, 6/17

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By John Laghezza | Last updated Jun 17, 2025 9:26 AM ET

"Give me six hours to chop down a tree, I'll spend the first four sharpening the axe." Part of the struggle betting baseball on a daily basis comes down to handling the massive amount of subsequent data. Before you start opening 1,000 different Chrome tabs chasing data, get all your ducks in a row first.

Make sure to bookmark our Athlon Sports Betting tab to help solidify that foundation bright and early every day.

Monday, June 17th, 2025

6:10pm EST — O/U 8.5

PHI Jesus Luzardo: -204; 67.1% Implied Probability

MIA Cal Quantrill: +171; 36.9% Implied Probability

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6:40pm EST — O/U 8.5

PIT Bailey Falter: +171; 36.9% Implied Probability

DET Casey Mize: -204; 67.1% Implied Probability

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6:45pm EST — O/U 9.5

COL Antonio Senzatela: +168; 37.3% Implied Probability

WSH Mike Soroka: -200; 66.7% Implied Probability

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7:05pm EST — O/U 9.5

LAA Kyle Hendricks: +212; 32.1% Implied Probability

NYY Will Warren: -256; 71.9% Implied Probability

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7:07pm EST — O/U 8.5

ARI Brandon Pfaadt: +106; 48.5% Implied Probability

TOR Chris Bassitt: -125; 55.6% Implied Probability

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7:10pm EST — O/U 8.5

MIN David Festa: +106; 48.5% Implied Probability

CIN Andrew Abbott: -125; 55.6% Implied Probability

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7:15pm EST — O/U 8.5

NYM David Peterson: +113; 46.9% Implied Probability

ATL Spencer Schwellenbach: -133; 57.1% Implied Probability

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7:35pm EST — O/U 9.5

BAL Dean Kremer: +104; 49.0% Implied Probability

TB Zack Littell: -122; 55.0% Implied Probability

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7:40pm EST — O/U 8.5

STL Matthew Liberatore: -152; 60.3% Implied Probability

CHW Shane Smith: +129; 43.7% Implied Probability

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8:05pm EST — O/U 8.5

MIL Chad Patrick: +129; 43.7% Implied Probability

CHC Ben Brown: -159; 61.4% Implied Probability

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8:05pm EST — O/U 8.5

KC Seth Lugo: +114; 46.7% Implied Probability

TEX Jack Leiter: -133; 57.1% Implied Probability

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9:40pm EST — O/U 7.5

BOS Walker Buehler: +151; 39.8% Implied Probability

SEA Bryan Woo: -179; 64.2% Implied Probability

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9:45pm EST — O/U 7.5

CLE Slade Cecconi: +140; 41.7% Implied Probability

SF Robbie Ray: -167; 62.5% Implied Probability

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10:05pm EST — O/U 10.5

HOU Jason Alexander: -143; 58.8% Implied Probability

ATH JP Sears: +121; 45.2% Implied Probability

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10:10pm EST — O/U 9.5

SD Randy Vasquez: +182; 35.5% Implied Probability

LAD Matt Sauer: -217; 68.5% Implied Probability

LAGHEZZA'S LEANS:

My first read usually comes down to one thing: underdogs at plus odds with a 50/50 chance to win outright — Today's are NYM, BAL, CHW, MIL, and KC. Remember, baseball's inherently variant and backing dogs greatly lowers the necessary win/loss record to profit long-term.

Thanks so much for reading — it's been so exciting getting to interact with all my new friends here at Athlon Sports. If you're interested in upping your analytical game, come find out what all the hubbub's about regarding my best-selling MLB/NFL Substack page.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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