Woof. We went 0-3 in strikeout props on Thursday for the first time in a while, bringing our record to 5-7 on the week. We still have a chance to scratch out a profit this week, so let's finish strong with three K props for Friday's MLB slate.
Padres at Mets, 7:10 p.m. ET
Death, taxes and fading lefties against the San Diego Padres. The Padres have the second-lowest strikeout rate against lefties this year (17.5 percent), and that number drops to 13.8 percent if you look at only the last three weeks. San Diego also has the lowest whiff rate and the second-highest chase contact rate in the league. Manaea has gone under this line in six of his 12 starts this season, and this is the toughest matchup he'll face.
Rays at Braves, 7:20 p.m. ET
After an uncharacteristically poor performance against the Oakland Athletics, Chris Sale bounced back with 10 strikeouts in his last start against the Washington Nationals. The veteran left-hander has now gone over this line in six of his last seven starts, and this is a solid matchup for him. The Tampa Bay Rays have the sixth-highest chase rate and the sixth-highest whiff rate in MLB, so Sale will be licking his chops considering his ability to force defensive swings on nasty pitches out of the zone.
Angels at Giants, 10:15 p.m. ET
Anderson has been one of the luckiest pitchers in MLB this year. The Los Angeles Angels lefty ranks in the 21st percentile in expected ERA (4.66) and the 17th percentile in barrel rate (9.8 percent), but he's somehow been able to keep his ERA at 2.63 through 13 starts. Anderson has struck out only 16.0 percent of the batters he's faced this year. His best avenue to Ks is his ability to force batters to chase out of the zone, but the San Francisco Giants have the seventh-lowest chase rate and the sixth-lowest whiff rate in the league.
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