New York Mets Arbitration Projections and Tender Decisions

Once a team comes up with its projected salary for all of its arbitration-eligible players, it will begin a tender analysis to simply determine: “Are we comfortable guaranteeing Player X this much money?”

If the answer is yes, the player will be tendered a contract prior to the mid-November Tender Deadline. Tendering a contract means the team offers the player a contract for the following season while retaining his rights, with the player’s salary either agreed to later or determined through the arbitration process.

If the answer is no, the player will be DFA’d/non-tendered. Once a player is non-tendered, he is removed from the 40-man roster and becomes a free agent immediately.

The other option a team has is to pre-tender a player, which is a contract agreed to before the Tender Deadline that takes the player out of the arbitration process. This is typically done when a team wants to keep a player, but only at a slightly discounted rate, or when it is a very obvious, typically small raise case that teams like to get out of the way.

This article dives into the market analysis of each case, showing the reasoning behind my leaguewide salary projections, before predicting the tender decision for each player.

All opinions in this article are my own, there was no non-public information used in my analysis.

New York Mets Roster Outlook

40-MAN + 60-DAY IL (NON-FA): 43

PENDING FA + MUTUAL OPTIONS: 0

OPTIONS: Bichette (Player, $42.0M)

R5 PROJECTED ADDITIONS: 4; Jefferson Rojas, Gary Gill HIll, Ryan Clifford, Jack Wenninger

CIONEL PEREZ (5.139): $2,200,000 ($300k raise)

The Case: Cionel Pérez signed a minor league deal with a $1.9M Major League rate after being released by Washington and made 40 appearances with 6 holds and a 4.76 ERA.

Justin Grimm (2017, $375K raise) provides the ceiling. Pérez’s and Grimm posts similar bulk stats at poor quality but Grimm was able to remain on his teams roster all season unlike Pérez who was released midseason. I project a $300K raise, bringing his total salary to $2.2M.

Tender Prediction: With no free agents leaving, I expect Pérez to be a roster casualty and be DFA/non-tendered to clear space for Rule 5 protections. I would expect the Mets to try to bring Pérez back on a minor-league deal with a Major League rate competitive with what his arbitration salary would have been. Non-Tender.

TYLOR MEGILL (5.031): $2,500,000 ($0 raise)

The Case: Megill missed the entire platform season with injury. I project no raise, keeping him at his previous $2.5M salary.

Tender Prediction: The Mets tendered Megill last offseason knowing he would miss the entire season, so there is no reason to think they will not tender him at the same price this offseason assuming there has been no major medical setback. Tender.

CHRISTOPHER MOREL (4.079): $2,000,000 ($0 raise)

The Case: Morel entered the platform season on a $2M deal but totaled only 105 PA with a 31 wRC+ including being released by the Marlins. There is no platform-year argument for an increase from an already inflated salary. If tendered, I project a $0 raise, keeping him at $2M.

Tender Prediction: Morel is a strong DFA/non-tender candidate. He was strictly an injury replacement for the Mets and his services should not be needed in 2027. Non-Tender.

FRANCISCO ALVAREZ (3.164): $4,250,000 ($1.85M raise)

The Case: Álvarez enters Arb-2 from a $2.4M salary after totaling 420 PA with 16 HR and a 99 wRC+ while providing solid defense behind the plate in his platform season. His combination of playing time, raw offensive production and defensive value places him near the top of the recent catcher raise market.

Carson Kelly (2021, $1.625M raise) provides the clearest floor. Kelly totaled 359 PA, 13 HR and 41 RBI with a 104 wRC+, provided good defense behind the plate and missed roughly a month and a half with injury. Álvarez has a meaningful playing-time advantage with 61 more PA and also tops Kelly by 3 HR while providing solid defensive value of his own. Kelly holds a slight rate-stat advantage, but Álvarez’s additional bulk and raw production clearly push him above Kelly’s $1.625M raise.

Adley Rutschman (2025, $1.75M raise), Alejandro Kirk (2024, $1.8M raise) are the next highest other comparisons in the catcher market. Álvarez’s holds PA, HR, and wRC+ advantages over both, putting him at the top of this group.

Yainer Díaz (2026, $1.65M proj. raise) provides the useful current-class comparison that Álvarez should recieve a higher raise than due to bulk and power advantages. Díaz totaled 361 PA, 14 HR and 45 RBI with a 115 wRC+, missed roughly 40 days on the IL.

Álvarez’s advantages over these players put him at the top of this comparison group, leading to a $1.85M projected raise for a $4.25M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Álvarez will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

REED GARRETT (3.143): $1,300,000 ($0 raise)

The Case: Reed Garrett missed the entire 2026 season with injury. Dillon Tate (2023, $0 raise) also missed his entire platform season and received the same exact salary the following season.

The club has the ability to reduce salary under the maximum salary reduction rules, but there is enough precedent for a player who missed the entire season to just repeat his previous salary. I do not expect the club to cut Reed Garrett’s salary and project a $0 raise resulting in a $1.3M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Like Megill, it was known at last year’s Tender Deadline that Garrett would miss the entire season. There is no reason to think the Mets will not tender him at the same price this offseason assuming there has been no major medical setback. Tender.

AUSTIN WARREN (3.137): $850,000

The Case: Warren is another first-time arbitration case despite entering the season above the Super Two cutoff but not qualifying. He enters arbitration with 106 career IP and a solid 3.40 ERA but only 4 HLD and 1 SV, then threw 48 IP across 39 appearances and 2 starts with 2 HLD, 0 SV and a 4.13 ERA in his platform season.

Deolis Guerra (2021, $815K salary) threw substantially more platform-year innings at 65.2 with 3 HLD, 0 SV and an almost identical 4.11 ERA. J.T. Chargois (2022, $850K salary) had much less platform bulk with 22.1 IP and 3 HLD, but entered arbitration with significantly more career bulk and leverage production.

Warren sits between the two pretty cleanly. His 106 career IP, career quality and a little starting experience give him an argument above Guerra, and the lower league minimum in those older cases also matters when translating the range forward. With only 2 platform holds and 4 for his career there is still nothing to justify getting above the $850K Chargois range. I project an $850K total salary.

Tender Prediction: Warren pitched well for the Mets, but I expect a DFA/non-tender because of the roster crunch. The Mets will likely try to bring him back on a minor-league deal. Non-Tender.

MARK VIENTOS (3.102): $2,675,000

The Case: Vientos enters arbitration as a hitter who has produced great power with 67 career HR, but with a lack of career consistency and no qualifying seasons. He enters with 1,486 career PA and a 98 wRC+, coming off a platform year in which he totaled only 295 PA with a 78 wRC+.

Kerry Carpenter (2025, $3.275M salary) provides a firm ceiling as a recent 0x qualifier with elite power. Carpenter entered arbitration with 1,332 career PA, 70 HR and a 127 career wRC+, while also coming off a career-best season. Despite Vientos’ career-bulk advantage and similar power production, the large career-quality gap and Carpenter’s much stronger platform-year trend keep Vientos well below that salary.

Nolan Gorman (2025, $2.655M salary) is the much more comparable historical comparison, entering arbitration with 1,581 career PA, 74 HR and a 100 wRC+. Gorman also saw career lows in HR and wRC+ in his platform year, creating a very similar career trend to Vientos. Gorman holds small advantages in career bulk, power and overall quality, but Vientos owns the better peak season: both hit 27 HR in their PY-2, while Vientos posted a 131 wRC+ compared to Gorman’s 118 wRC+. That stronger peak gives Vientos enough to edge just above Gorman despite Gorman’s slight career-stat advantages.

Brett Baty (2026, $2.55M proj. salary) is also a useful current-class teammate comparison. Baty has been the better hitter in both the platform year and PY-1, but Vientos owns a massive career-power advantage with 67 HR compared to Baty’s 44. That power separation should keep Vientos comfortably ahead, while Baty’s stronger recent quality prevents the gap from getting too large. I project Vientos at a $2.675M total salary.

Tender Prediction: For some teams this would be a different conversation because Vientos does not really have a position, but with the Mets’ resources they can afford to take a risk on his arbitration salary and should tender him. A pre-tender deal could still be attempted to see if he is willing to take a below-arbitration-value contract. Tender.

BRETT BATY (3.088): $2,550,000

The Case: Baty enters arbitration as a 0x qualifier with inconsistent playing time over five seasons, totaling 1,507 career PA and 44 HR with an 88 career wRC+ and only one season above league-average offensive production.

Josh Lowe (2025, $2.6M salary) is the best historical comparison from a career-stat standpoint after entering arbitration with 1,523 career PA, 43 HR and a 102 wRC+. Lowe has to stay ahead of Baty because he owns a 500+ PA season with a 130 wRC+, giving him the clear peak-season and career-quality advantages. Their platform seasons are much closer, with Lowe totaling 435 PA and 11 HR compared to Baty’s 473 PA and 11 HR. Those statistical similarities keep Baty near Lowe, but the quality gap keeps him slightly below.

Mark Vientos (2026, $2.675M proj. salary) provides the best current-class placement point and should also remain ahead of Baty because of the large career-power advantage, with Vientos at 67 career HR compared to Baty’s 44. Baty has been the better hitter in both the platform year and PY-1, which keeps the two somewhat close, but the power separation is too large for Baty to reach Vientos. I project Baty at a $2.55M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Baty will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

CRISTIAN PACHE (3.086): $870,000 ($20,000 raise)

The Case: Pache signed a minor league deal with an $850k Major League base and received only 8 PA. With essentially no platform-year contribution, this is a minimum-level increase case. I project a $20K raise, bringing his total salary to $870K.

Tender Prediction: Pache is a strong DFA/non-tender candidate. Non-Tender.

DEDNIEL NUNEZ (3.074): $925,000

The Case: Nunez enters his first arbitration trip with a strong career quality line but limited bulk after injuries. He has a 3.02 career ERA across 62.2 IP with 17 HLD and 2 SV, while his platform season was limited to 17 appearances and 18 IP with 5 HLD, 1 SV and a 3.50 ERA.

Brock Stewart (2024, $880K salary) is the best limited-workload comparison with 15.2 PY IP. Nunez has slightly more platform bulk, and better career quality with Stewart posting a 4.95 ERA. This should push Nunez above Stewart despite the significant missed time. I project a $925K total salary.

Tender Prediction: Nunez will be tendered a contract. He pitched well returning from surgery and still has an option remaining. Tender.