Mar 26, 2022; Port St. Lucie, Florida, USA; The New York Mets logo stands in center field before the game against the Washington Nationals at Clover Park. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-Imagn Images Reinhold Matay-Imagn Images

New York Mets rookie deemed 2026 breakout candidate, per expert

Originally posted on New York Mets on SI | By Grant Young | Last updated Sep 21, 2025 8:00 AM ET

Much has already been made about the sensational start to his MLB career that New York Mets hurler Nolan McLean has produced.

Not only has McLean reinvigorated the Mets' hopes of making the 2025 postseason, but his already asserting himself as an ace-caliber pitcher gives fans (and probably the franchise) the confidence that they can compete when facing some of baseball's other elite starting pitchers they'll surely meet in the playoffs.

If there's one hole that can be poked in McLean's brief MLB tenure, it's exactly that: it has been brief. While his small sample size of starts (seven, as of September 21) suggests that McLean is poised to be an ace for years to come, he'll need to produce for a full season before the rest of the baseball community sees him in that light.

MLB Expert Predicts Breakout 2026 Campaign for Nolan McLean

Of course, the first opportunity McLean will have to prove he can perform throughout a whole season is in 2026. And that's exactly what MLB.com writer Jason Foster predicted by including McLean in a September 19 article that was headlined, "These 7 rookies are poised to break out in 2026".

"McLean came to the Mets with hype, and he has delivered. Since his debut on Aug. 16, New York's No. 1 pitching prospect has gone 4-1 with a 1.19 ERA in six starts, the lowest ERA of any MLB pitcher with at least 30 innings pitched during that span. Not only that, but the righty's 40 strikeouts are most among rookie hurlers since his debut, while his 0.98 WHIP and .194 opponents' average are second only to the Cubs' Cade Horton," Foster wrote.

"McLean has not allowed more than two runs in any of his starts and has four times held opponents to one or no runs. And it's not like he's been facing lackluster competition. All but one of his starts have come against teams in the playoff hunt, and the Mets are 4-1 in those games, with the only setback coming on Sept. 8, when McLean went five innings and allowed just one run in a 1-0 loss to the Phillies."

Nolan McLean, 84mph Sweeper and 97mph Two Seamer, Individual Pitches + Overlay

Sweeper= 21 inches of break
Two Seamer=19 inches of run.

THIS IS RIDICULOUS. pic.twitter.com/ZoE8uZ9pyL
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 20, 2025

It will be essentially impossible for McLean (who now has a 1.27 ERA after giving up one earned run in five innings against the Washington Nationals on Saturday) to produce these video game-esque stats throughout an entire season.

But the good news is that even if McLean's current ERA doubles next year (assuming he also stays healthy), he'll still be a contender to win the 2026 NL Cy Young award.

This article first appeared on New York Mets on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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