New York Yankees Arbitration Projections and Tender Decisions

Once a team comes up with its projected salary for all of its arbitration-eligible players, it will begin a tender analysis to simply determine: “Are we comfortable guaranteeing Player X this much money?”

If the answer is yes, the player will be tendered a contract prior to the mid-November Tender Deadline. Tendering a contract means the team offers the player a contract for the following season while retaining his rights, with the player’s salary either agreed to later or determined through the arbitration process.

If the answer is no, the player will be DFA’d/non-tendered. Once a player is non-tendered, he is removed from the 40-man roster and becomes a free agent immediately.

The other option a team has is to pre-tender a player, which is a contract agreed to before the Tender Deadline that takes the player out of the arbitration process. This is typically done when a team wants to keep a player, but only at a slightly discounted rate, or when it is a very obvious, typically small raise case that teams like to get out of the way.

This article dives into the market analysis of each case, showing the reasoning behind my leaguewide salary projections, before predicting the tender decision for each player.

All opinions in this article are my own, there was no non-public information used in my analysis.

New York Yankees Roster Outlook

40-MAN + 60-DAY IL (NON-FA): 42

PENDING FA + MUTUAL OPTIONS: 10

OPTIONS: None

R5 PROJECTED ADDITIONS: 4; Cade Smith, Chris Kean, Roedrick Arias, Brock Selvidge

CLARKE SCHMIDT (5.148): $4,500,000 ($0 raise)

The Case: Schmidt missed the entire platform season due to injury. Walker Buehler (2023, $0 raise) and Lance McCullers (2019, $0 raise) provide the full-season missed-year precedent. I project a $0 raise, keeping Schmidt at $4.5M.

Tender Prediction: Schmidt will be tendered a contract. It is an interesting decision with the Yankees having their top starting-pitching prospects near the Major League level, and if Schmidt gets pushed out of the rotation it becomes a hefty price tag.

Ultimately, the Yankees have the resources to withstand that and do not have enough starting-pitching depth to let Schmidt go. Tender.

LUIS GARCIA JR. (5.142): $10,600,000 ($3.725M raise)

The Case: García enters his fourth arbitration trip from a $6.875M salary after totaling 543 PA with 30 HR, 92 RBI and a 124 wRC+.

Josh Bell (2021, $3.65M raise) is the primary comparison after coming from a $6.35M previous salary and totaling 568 PA with 27 HR, 88 RBI and a 119 wRC+. García holds slight advantages in power, run production and quality, while Bell has the PA advantage. Those edges justify getting $75k above Bell’s raise. I project a $3.725M raise, bringing García to $10.6M.

Tender Prediction: Garcia will be tendered a contract. I would also expect the Yankees to pursue an extension. Tender.

RYAN WEATHERS (4.066): $3,800,000 ($2.45M raise)

The Case: Weathers made 25 starts and threw 137.1 IP with a 3.60 ERA and 1.22 WHIP while spending 36 days on the IL.

Edward Cabrera (2025, $2.5M raise) is an almost identical comparison after making 26 starts and throwing 137.2 IP with a 3.53 ERA and 1.23 WHIP while also spending 36 days on the IL. The statistical cases are nearly identical, but Weathers came from a previous salary roughly $600k below Cabrera, which should keep him slightly below Cabrera’s raise.

Weathers finished the season on the IL with a possible postseason return, and I project a $2.45M raise bringing him to a $3.8M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Weathers will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

FERNANDO CRUZ (4.035): $2,000,000 ($550k raise)

The Case: Cruz turned into an odd case after having such a good season but ending with a major injury that requires surgery.

Aside from Jason Adam (2023, $925k raise) after recording 12 saves, the biggest raise for a player to end the season on the IL in this range is Yency Almonte (2023, $400k raise).

Cruz’s quality is significantly better than Almonte with more than double the amount of holds. Statistically, Cruz’s raise should be closer to Adam than Almonte. If this makes it past the tender deadline, the Yankees have all the negotiation leverage in the world.

The current CBA explicitly lists “the existence of any physical or mental defects on the part of the Player” as permissible arbitration criteria, making it very difficult to walk into a hearing and convince arbitrators you should get paid more to not work.

I project Cruz for a $550k raise resulting in a $2M total salary to recognize his statistical advantages over Almonte, but I would not be surprised if it is less given the Yankees’ leverage in the case.

Tender Prediction: Cruz should be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

JOSE CABALLERO (3.170): $4,075,000 ($2.075M raise)

The Case: Caballero enters arbitration after a platform year with 14 HR, 34 SB and an 83 wRC+ while playing mostly SS.

Luis Rengifo (2023, $2.1M raise) provides the ceiling with his 445 PA, 16 HR, 115 wRC+ season. Matt McLain (2026, $2.05M proj. raise) is a strong current-class comp. Caballero’s combination of power, speed and a mostly-SS defensive role puts him just behind Rengifo but slightly ahead of McLain, resulting in a $2.075M raise and $4.075M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Caballero will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

ANTHONY VOLPE (3.142): $3,975,000 ($500k raise)

The Case: Volpe enters from a $3.475M Arb-1 salary after totaling 246 PA while spending 45 days on optional assignment and significant time on the IL.

Josh Rojas (2023, $525k raise) is the primary historical comparison after totaling 350 PA with 40 option days. Rojas’ bulk advantage keeps Volpe slightly below his raise. I project a $500K raise, bringing Volpe to $3.975M.

Josh Smith (2026, $500k proj. raise) and Nolan Gorman (2026, $500k proj. raise) provide current-class comparisons with similar circumstances.

Tender Prediction: Volpe will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Volpe is definitely a trade candidate. Tender

LUIS GIL (3.119): $2,337,500 ($175k raise)

The Case: Gil finished the season on option after spending 144 days on optional assignment and only making 8 MLB appearances.

Ryan Feltner (2025, $175k raise) provides the historical anchor for a tendered starter with a very limited MLB season and significant option time.

JP Sears (2026, $175k proj. raise) provides an almost identical current-class comparison with 145 option days and 8 games. All three cases came from salaries within the same general range and produced mid-4 ERAs. I project Gil for the same $175k raise, resulting in a $2.3375M total salary.

Tender Prediction: I expect the Yankees to try and use the threat of a non-tender to get Gil to accept a below-market deal. Ultimately, I think they tender him regardless. Pre-Tender.

HELIOT RAMOS (3.103): $3,650,000

The Case: Ramos enters arbitration as a 1x All-Star, though not in his platform year, with two qualifying seasons that have led to 1,737 career PA’s, 57 HR’s and a 105 wRC+.

TJ Friedl (2025, $3.8M salary) is a strong comparison as another 2x qualifier with similar career power at 54 HR’s and a 108 career wRC+. Friedl does carry some bulk advantages with 1,876 career PA’s and a qualifying platform year.

Andy Pages (2026, $3.7M proj. salary) is a current class comp who was also an All-Star and has similar career power numbers, though Ramos has bulk advantages. I project Ramos to fall just below Friedl and current class comp Pages, leading to $3.65M total salary projection.

Tender Prediction: Ramos will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender

AUSTIN WELLS (3.031): $3,100,000

The Case: Wells enters the market coming off his worst offensive season, despite the downward trend he’s put up solid career totals of 1325 PA’s, 52 HR’s, 171 RBI and a 92 wRC+.

He’s also been the Yankees primary starter for three consecutive years. Jonah Heim (2023, $3.05M salary) is the closest comp with Heim’s 1277 career PA’s, 44 HR’s and 91 wRC+. Wells gets by Heim but not by much as Heim had a more dominant PY posting a 501 PA season with a 107 wRC+.

Wells slots in above Heim but will fall below current class comp Patrick Bailey (2026, $3.25M proj. salary) due to the bulk disadvantage. Wells earns a $3.1M Arb-1 salary.

Tender Prediction: Wells will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.